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What is User Exits and Customer Exits in SAP ABAB http://bit.ly/2pKypIn

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Your First Cucumber Script http://bit.ly/2qyWiiy

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Enjoy a roller coaster this weekend
It's comforting to know fewer people die from roller coasters than they do just from walking around.

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Further to +John Marc Thibault   post, here is the info on SIPMath from the non-profit probabilitymanagement.org
ProbabilityManagement.Org SIPmath™
ProbabilityManagement.Org SIPmath™
probabilitymanagement.org

Projects don’t finish on time and on cost, not from lack of effort, but a systematic flaw in the planning

Why is that?

Project Plans employ many tasks, many factors, but don’t consider the range of outcomes for each task.  

Whether it’s a whole project or a single task, “How long will it take?” doesn’t have just one answer. It has a whole bunch of answers, each with its own chance of being right. 

To illustrate: let’s look at the chances of getting to work by 9 AM.  

Like projects, we may thing of this in terms of 3 steps in sequence.
1. Wake up at 7
2. Leave the house by 8
3. Brave traffic for an hour
4. Arrive at work by 9 AM

1. We guess that we will wake up at 7 AM, because we usually wake up between 6.45 AM and 7.15 AM.

2. For step 2, usually takes us 45 min to 1:15 min to get ready.  We estimate an hour to get ready.

3. Traffic to work is usually 45 min to 1:15 min, so we estimate it will take us an hour to get to work.

The traditional project plan would add each of these steps together to estimate total time “to complete” or get to work.  

The project plan would show, we get up at 7 AM, leave the house at 8 AM, brave traffic for an hour, and will get to work, or “complete the project” by 9 AM

This is the CRUX of why projects are often late.

1. The odds of waking up on time is 50% or ½
2. The odds of  leaving the house by 8 is 50% or ½
3. The odds of traffic taking an hour to get to work is 50% or ½

When we incorporate a range of outcomes into the project plan we discover that:

50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5% 

In reality, there is only a 12.5% chance we will get to work on time.

Imagine a complex project with hundreds of steps or variables, each with its own range of outcomes and the problem gets more severe.

The fix, is to look at the individual steps and outcomes and optimize the outcome to a certain task date (or cost), or provide a more realistic and defensible timeframe.

At APM, we work with you, to illuminate where your risk is and then help you manage it.  

For more information visit www.managetheodds.com

Or Contact Rob Szold at 647-965-2706
rob@managetheodds.com

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+John Marc Thibault  has developed an oustanding project management application that addresses the issue of why projects are often late and over budget.  Stay tuned!
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