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Ras Zulu

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The Shorts Were Out Covering As Oil Surged
In Today's Market Session..Buy!..Buy!!..Buy!!!..
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Dan Chapman

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$KLIC (Kulicke & Soffa) stock breakout watch off lower support area http://bit.ly/1inIE7b #stocks 
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Here's the possible connecting assertion in all this  If we are approaching the physical limits of sustainable development and turning southward, then at some point the stock, financial and economic markets should all respond accordingly.

 Instinctively all constructs are thus  governed by the physical laws of gravity - what goes up - must come down!
Stocks Correct, Panic Ensues. The End Of The World? The four major U.S. stock market indices finally corrected after a 9-month sideways trend. The ‘big’ news this week for stocks was undoubtedly that the four indi...
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Fiorenzo Arcadi

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China’s Lesson to the US Fed

By: Michael Ambrozewicz & Fiorenzo Arcadi

China has always been quick in pointing the finger when it comes to their woes. Their propaganda machine seems to be overheating and their arsenal is running low on ammunition. It doesn’t matter what they do, their markets still keep heading down. This time they’re blaming the US Fed for the global market rout.

Yao Yudong, head of People’s Bank of China Research Institute of Finance, stated that the probable Fed interest rate hike in September has essentially acted as the “trigger” to the recent stock market fiasco. He mentions nothing about the commodity rout, decreased Chinese demand for imports, and China’s central command’s implementation of pro-growth policies as other possible catalysts. The catalyst itself is directly related to China’s continual incentive to pump up its market with easy money. 

The US Fed is doing precisely the same. They are bidding up large investment banks with easy money while restricting liquidity for small businesses. What the Fed wants to do is normalize US interest rates without sparking panic among investors and without having the Dow Theory come into play. Perhaps Yudong doesn’t understand the Dow Theory and that easy money can not go on forever because it builds bubbles. These bubbles get progressively larger and have the potential to trigger astronomical crashes that put a dent in the global financial world.  

At least China has the capability to reduce interest rates while the same action by the US Fed is heavily scrutinized. The Chinese market is mirrored with volatility which has scared off many of their retail investors. Now the US is facing the same consequences in terms of volatility as small household traders re-evaluate their level of risk tolerance. Simply put, higher volatility keeps investors away. The only one who benefits with higher volatility is market makers and institutions that make money regardless of a rising or falling market.

For corporate America to continue buying back shares and getting loans from financial institutions is only feeding a vicious cycle of lack of investment into their businesses. Corporate America is only feeding financial institutions’ ferocious appetite for yield and interest. Emerging markets seem to have a false vision of America as an oasis and the one-stop solution to all their problems. Reality seems to always draw everybody back to realism that the United States can not continue buying back shares to appease the financial institutions with easy money.

The illusion corporate America gives off is glamorous short-term quarterly results without addressing the long-term affects that may damage a company’s strategic vision and sustainable growth. It has always been a battle between the hawks and the doves that are continually in a quagmire of not doing what they’re supposed to do. The doves are there to appease the financial institutions while the hawks fight to bring them back to reality in terms of risk. The two have obviously never been correct as we continue to see larger booms and busts. 

Li Qilin, an analyst with Minsheng Securities, stated that he believes the recent turmoil may be due to the liquidity crunch. Then he alluded that the fundamentals are sound and that the Asian financial crisis would not be repeated. What he’s saying is that there is absolutely no logic between the doves and the hawks and that not even Socrates can come to terms with this logic. The Fed doesn’t want to lose credibility. Their conventional wisdom is to have a correction lasting a few days rather than a devastating financial crisis that would take several years to recover from. So please China, go ahead and tell the Fed what it needs to do, we are all capitalists. Socialism believes that money is made out of thin air but I’ve always been reminded that free lunches do not exist. 
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Fiorenzo Arcadi

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Tim Cook Raising the Chinese Stock Market

By: Michael Ambrozewicz & Fiorenzo Arcadi

It seems to dawn on me that many of these Nobel economic laureates have little poetic sensibility in understanding themselves. Most, if not all, propagate a world that exists and doesn’t exist. However they expound these virtues nonetheless in order to establish some sense of order and economic thinking. Perhaps today we need to thank Tim Cook, CEO of Apple Inc., for giving us some sensibility of where capitalism and communism stands today. Tim Cook wasn’t supporting Apple’s view on capitalism, he was supporting China’s view on capitalism and that’s why he made the reference today that China’s future is still intact and everything looks great. He decided to play the game theory, and for that the market should be proud. 

Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin came out with the research piece Global Games: Theory and Applications. They mentioned that global games allow us to capture the idea that economic agents may be pushed into taking a particular economic action because of their belief that others are taking action. Bank runs and financial crises are prime examples of such cases. We draw the important distinction between whether there can be inefficient equilibrium outcomes or whether there is a unique outcome in equilibrium. 

There is no difference in the belief system between capitalism and communism. If capitalism and communism use the same fiscal and monetary policy then what is the difference? If Picasso used a bull as an image of realism to form abstraction then why can’t we do the same? What is the difference between the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Trans Pacific Partnership? The two belief systems are attached to the same umbilical cord to dominate the Asia-Pacific region. Capitalism and communism have realigned themselves to achieve the same economic expansion that one must concede to the other in order to achieve peace. 

The global game theory plays out by having two economic poker players that establish the will and ambition to succeed regardless of the outcome. Both belief systems attach an importance to dominance and fluctuate in harmony with each other because they both exist under one common roof. Communism existed until it had to establish the same economic belief to survive and exist among capitalism. 

In the global economic game one belief system has a higher order and slightly richer structure than the other. The game takes on a different form and one must mutate themselves to establish an economic equilibrium. China and Russia have adopted similar monetary and fiscal policies that Western nations have also adopted with the same equilibrium. Punishing Russia establishes a higher moral ground in terms of economic thinking, however, the game continues. Communism moves slightly slower than capitalism but allows itself to continually play the game with some linear payoffs. 

It is only the paint color that establishes some degree of difference towards the canvas. The two belief systems and their predictability do not rest on mathematical probability. They are based on how they act towards each other and how they weave themselves in an effort to establish dominance. We don’t need Nobel laureates to espouse the virtues of mathematical probability in the world of economics. 

It is playing out before our eyes. In the South China Sea you can see how capitalism and communism are playing their respective roles in economic expansion based on the same principles that benefits their moral ground and belief system. It is the constant sway of Asia-Pacific countries to think in the same equilibrium world that they live in. Capitalism and communism achieved the same principles in the formation of economic bubbles. However, communism is able to extend their bloodline quicker once the tools of monetary and fiscal policies are instituted. 

On August 5, 2015, China appeased the US when it stopped building islands in the South China Sea. However on August 21 they resumed the building of islands despite rising tensions with the United States. It is the quest of the two moral belief systems to establish their economic dominance in the region. Darwinist theories do not examine the principles of a nation whether it be capitalistic or communistic in nature and are therefore irrelevant. 

Picasso’s abstraction with his bull prints only needed time to reflect that the bull was indeed growing. The bull can only see the mirror image of itself. The global games apply only to the depths of what is rational or irrational in how the bull perceives itself. When the bull crashes into the mirror is when Picasso and Darwin draw the line of symmetry. The CEO of Apple Inc. Tim Cook did just that today. I knew Yellen wouldn’t make the pitch today, and the reason is because of China’s failure to raise their stock market with their monetary and fiscal policies. 
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My latest piece for investing.com: "Australia's Big Four Banks on Track For Worst Year Since GFC" 
#ausbiz   #stockmarket   #NYSE  
Stocks Analysis by Owen Raszkiewicz covering: National Australia Bank Ltd, ANZ Banking Group, Westpac Banking Corporation, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia.. Read Owen Raszkiewicz's Stocks Analysis on Investing.com
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Fiorenzo Arcadi

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Alexis Tsipras’ & Joseph Stiglitz’s Incorrect Economic Thinking

By: Fiorenzo Arcadi & Michael Ambrozewicz

I was rather amused on August 18 when Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz commented on the situation in Greece, “Bad economic ideas inflict untold human suffering. When they come cloaked in a fog of Orwellian obfuscation their poison and effect can spread with little hindrance. The public is misled. Power plays are hidden from view.” Stiglitz blames banks in Germany and France and the private sector creditors for being the direct beneficiaries of Greece’s misery. What Stiglitz failed to realize is that bad economic ideas rest on the shoulder of a nation itself. The economic will of a nation can not be obfuscated unless a weakness is present in the political will. 

If there is indeed an economic poison it must rest squarely on a leader’s inability to look into a nation’s economic future. Yes, Stiglitz is right that Germany did receive a major benefit of debt write-off; however he failed to realize that Germany became a strategic country and a buffer against communism. Whether Stiglitz wants to admit it or not Darwin always brings us back to our primal instinct of survival in the world of economics. There is always a bigger and more impressing foe that will illicit their ideology or dominance when push comes to shove. 

Economic and political abstraction does not lend clarity to a situation in bringing a nation onto its knees. It was Alexis Tsipras that brought his own nation to its knees and begged for a memorandum “at any cost” in order to be part of the European project. He was so consumed with a bailout that he failed to give Greece the strategic economic importance as a gateway to Europe. If a leader allows his nation to be dominated by Germany and France it is because the young Mr. Tsipras allowed it. 

If Stiglitz feels that Germany and France have snuffed out the hopes of the Greek young and delivered humiliation and suffering then history will rightfully document it. History will also document Tsipras’ rise to power without hope or optimism in building up the Greek nation. He developed no national economic thinking to make Greece the most important hub in the European community. Tsipras lacked confidence in himself which eventually translated to what Greece believed.

If Tsipras can not bear difficult economic choices then why should he show sincerity that he wants to change Greece for the better within the Eurozone? Tsipras was incapable of understanding Greece’s problems with creditors and making the necessary changes to strengthen the vision within his country. The salvation for his country was to provide stability, rid corruption, and establish Greece as a European port for prosperity. He threw the dice too many times without establishing anything. How can I prove this?

In Toronto in 1996 hockey retailers were faced with an onslaught of American megastores reaching Canadian soil. As the CEO of a hockey equipment store, my competitors and I were worried for our future. Sports Authority and Sport Mart invaded Toronto at a time when small mom-and-pop retailers commanded about 60% of the market. The first article I published in sports was Swarm, Absorb, Take Their Identity. The stories set the tone to go to war and having the will to never give up. The second story Independents Unite to Fight the United stated that it was a form of socialism to get retailers together and fight to win. The third was victory; it was called Sleeping Together With One Eye Open. After we won disaster struck. in 2015 there are now only 4 or 5 independent hockey stores left in Toronto. Charles Darwin brought us back but we started to eat each other. The mom-and-pop hockey retailers failed to realize that waiting on the horizon was a bigger Canadian hockey store in Quebec that learned from the mistakes of the American megastores. Even though we won against a $3 billion US industry it was a hollow victory nonetheless. 

What Alexis Tsipras can not comprehend is that there are choices and economic strategies that can benefit a nation’s national will much better than the weakness that he provided Greece with. Within his party he is facing rebellion and had no choice but to call an election. However it is constantly the same old story of eating each other up. For Stiglitz maybe he should start using his theories in a real economic arena like I have. My colleague Michael Ambrozewicz said it best, “There was always a missing link in economics. Perhaps you can see the true economic world the apes have created.” 



For those interested in the articles mentioned above, these links will direct you to them. Enjoy!

https://plus.google.com/105386655778414709609/posts/RGbmnxpU7vh

https://plus.google.com/105386655778414709609/posts/U3yLZB5qZhn

https://plus.google.com/105386655778414709609/posts/JLnV9aUJ9X1
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Dan Chapman

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$PVH (Phillips-Van Heusen) stock long price congestion area, breakout watch above 118.48 http://bit.ly/1JrjcQB #stocks 
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Pramod Upadhyay

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Fiorenzo Arcadi

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China’s New Rules in the Theory of Economic Cycles

By: Michael Ambrozewicz & Fiorenzo Arcadi

China was right that with monetary easing the market is not short on funds but simply lacks confidence. Ren Zeping, chief economist at Guotai Junan Securities, mentioned, “As regulations are tightened the bubble will be further eliminated.” We on the other hand believe the real economic cycle is relative to the economic universe of the world. It grows despite monetary and fiscal policies that central bankers institute as a guide and balance that nations adhere to. The economic cycle becomes an elusory curve.

An expanding economic universe today means a smaller economic universe for those nations that can not contribute. The universality of economic easing measures may mean that some nations are able to exert infinite expansion from limited expansion. The cycle expands regardless as long as Earth establishes the resources and man expands on the resources. The trajectory of the global cycle can stall temporarily to catch its breath, but then resumes by accelerating upwards.

World economies do not have independent existences; they form a fabric of allocating resources to the few. The economic cycle becomes violated by political tools such as capitalism, socialism, and communism. These are hidden variables of the economic cycle that achieve a certain degree of momentum. These variables only explore a paradox in complementing the political tools with economic tools that impact wealth and poverty. The gravitational pull and control of these resources is how the economic cycle works.

It was communism that allowed Putin to accumulate resources making him one of the richest men on Earth. The US Fed allowed vast resources to be accumulated by central bankers. It is Chinese communism that is now instituting criminal compulsory measures for alleged market manipulation and trading violations. China accelerated compulsory measures that include arrest, detention, and the surveillance of its own market malaise. 

Now, Chinese economic journalists are being accused of market manipulation and fabricating information to benefit themselves instead of the greed of China’s central command. China’s central command’s greed is causing their economy to collapse inward meaning that shadow banking has taken over in their economy. China’s central bankers demand that their middle class should occupy the same space as they do, but by the same token they are required to be invisible. 

China proclaims that the middle class, along with Apple’s CEO Tim Cook, are the ones driving the domestic market as opposed to shadow bankers. On August 28 Premier Li Keqiang stated, “Financial stability is significant to the broader economy. It is important to foster open and transparent capital markets for long-term stability and to ensure its sound development.” The global capital markets have adopted an invisible hand in controlling the global economic cycle. The global economic cycle has been breached along with its confidence.

China can not recast an economic cycle to benefit the central command’s way of thinking. Central bankers across the globe have become intolerant of themselves in hope of propping up their own economic virtual world rather than understanding that the rules have changed. Global bankers misguided the steps in unifying the global economic cycle that wealth will translate to higher wages because of the fact that global wages undermine individual growth. 

Premier Li Keqiang nailed it with his statement, “Now the traditional drivers of growth are not strong, it is important to come up with new measures to bolster reform and opening up. It is necessary to provide more public goods and services, and encourage mass entrepreneurship and innovation to boost the growth momentum.” He further analyzed something that became very critical. He stated, “The real economy will be upgraded for better quality and greater efficiency as each sector becomes more vibrant. The stability of the overall economy would be built on a more solid basis.” 

Remember, the trajectory of the real economic cycle is up and is based on man’s ability to exploit resources. What becomes unreal is the dimension of where the cycle exists in the global timeframe of the economy. The dark economy is built when capitalism, socialism, and communism are on equal footing in the belief that they control the wealth of the many and the few. The gap can not narrow; it only enlarges and becomes infinite with space until it arrives back at the survival of the fittest. The survival of the fittest is more rational and real than what most North American economists have given us. 

China’s state authorities arrested Chinese journalist Wang Xiaolu for allegedly causing panic and disorder in the stock market. That one journalist can seriously undermine the market’s confidence and inflict huge losses on the country and its investors? Hard to believe. The political and philosophical variables disrupt the global economic cycle and carry man’s trajectory in harvesting resources. If George Orwell was alive today he would’ve came up with a different theory that would put him into a different dimension relative to space. 
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G Paul

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Support was at the MVWAP 34 as marked on the Month Screen #M1 and exactly as studied in the previous post. Resistance for the Bears (at week close) was around the previous low, marked by the mid-line of the Day Channel #D1. Moving Averages: The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the month screen, ...
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Flight Centre (ASX: FLT) is easily one of my favourite blue(ish) chip shareholdings on the Australian #stockmarket  at today's prices. #investing   #stocks  
Deutsche Bank analysts believe Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX:FLT) shares are, "far too cheap given its strong cash generation and reasonable growth
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RELPs are not for people "looking to make a quick buck." Instead, these real estate investments are ideal for investors seeking longer-term returns.

#realestate   #investing   #realestatetips   #investors   #advice   #tips
According to a Davenport Laroche representative, aside from owning their home or paying a mortgage, investors want other ways to invest in real estate.
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Andreas Cseh

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The incredible shrinking #China
Investors everywhere are looking for some...
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Andreas Cseh

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Institutions Buying #Microsoft Corporation, #Amazon.com, Inc. But Not #Apple Inc.
Tech stocks tend to be very popular with investors of all kinds, and indeed they remained quite popular with institutional investors during the second quarter. Most large-cap tech stocks have average
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Australian market down 3%...

Tabloids: 
"China carnage as market drops 8.45pc" -- AFR
"$51.5b bloodbath" -- Sydney Herald
"ASX hits 2-yr low amid panic" -- News Corp

My take:
"Who cares" 

#ausbiz   #stockmarkets   #investing  
(Capital-F) Fools should be looking to scoop up long-term winners like SEEK Limited (ASX:SEK), ResMed Inc. CHESS (ASX:RMD) and Cochear Ltd (ASX:COH).
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That is very true +Timothy Ng: They are great businesses and worthy of a position in many portfolios over the long-term.
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Robert Steffes

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$100 Free: Tradeking is offering $100 to all new customers that are referred. HO me your email address and Tradeking will send you a link to receive a $100 for opening a Tradeking account. Great value at $4.95 per stock trade. 
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REVEALED: Warren Buffett will begin buying billions of dollars of #Australian  stocks in the next five years. That's according to a recent telephone interview with Fairfax media. #ausbiz   #stocks  
The Sage of Omaha recently said his $US350 billion conglomerate could have four or five Australian stocks in its portfolio in just a few years.
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Fiorenzo Arcadi

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The Dow Theory’s Transformation into a Global Theory 

By: Michael Ambrozewicz & Fiorenzo Arcadi 

In the world of global markets is William Peter Hamilton’s assessment of the Dow Theory prevalent? Do the global markets adhere to a collective thought process that the Dow Theory still exists today? After Charles Dow’s death it was his successor, William Peter Hamilton, who articulated the efficiency of the stock market. Whatever working hypothesis is at work today is not relinquished by the human element. 

The Dow Theory entered a transformative world, one which uses prosperity as a tool to drive men to excess. Repentance for the consequences of the excess produces a corresponding depression. The Dow Theory only needs to be tweaked by replacing man with global economies. It is the propensity to have global economies that will drive them to prosperity while repentance will still be governed by human nature.

The singularity of the Dow Theory can not be contributed to one market, it must respond to all global markets. The bull and bear market cycles envisioned by the Dow Theory are due to the irrational exuberance of individual investors. The Dow Theory takes into account what appears to be rationally incorporated into prices that determine the bull and the bear. Why should global markets be excluded from this theory? 

If the bull markets have three stages then the global economies must also have three stages. The bull stage first signifies a revival of confidence in future business. The second is the response of stock prices corresponding with improvements in corporate earnings. The third is the period when speculation is rampant and inflation becomes apparent. 

The bear market becomes prevalent when there is an abandonment of hope as investors experience inflated stock prices. Second, it reflects selling due to increased business and mediocre earning reports. The third stage comes when securities are sold regardless of true value. 

The sequence of global markets’ primary trend is liquidity and leverage confirming the rising of global markets. This becomes the definite trend and the beginning of a primary trend that global markets must follow or else be left behind. The global Dow Theory may take different characteristics in establishing a bearish signal. The real risk of global markets may not be a simple adjustment to the world markets so they need to become reckless. 

The theory needs to take certain considerations of geopolitical and macroeconomic events. Global markets do go through phases of exuberance, growth, and tranquility. It is a phase where global markets are rational and nations adopt rising economic expectations for sustainable future growth. Global markets examine positive news as a platform for positive momentum. On the other hand, the bear markets follow negative news as a signal of increased negative momentum. What’s clearly at work are geopolitical momentum strategies that signal declines and advances in future global trends.

The global dynamics of markets do identify recurring patterns in global financial markets. They identify patterns, predictions, and future international market movements. If the Japanese and European markets are up the Dow will generally follow the same trend. The degree of the upward momentum of global markets reassures confidence in the uptrend momentum of the Dow. The global dynamic of rising markets amplifies the characteristics of rising and falling markets and future activities and trends. 

When global economies face little or no rising expectation in economic growth the trend will neutrally continue for a few years before exuberance turns into despair. The transitional phase will first show up in a commodity bear market, adhering to oversupply and overcapacity. The neutrality stage is still intact, the Dow will go down and stage a rebound based on confidence which signals other global markets to follow. 

The global economic patterns are rational until they become irrational. Events such as what occurred in May 2015 where China’s military indicated that it will go to war with the US unless America ceases its interference in Beijing’s activities in the South China Sea will continue to disrupt the world. Nations competing with each other and maintaining an economic umbilical cord results in an irrational world. If a dominating country can not expand its economy then it will feel threatened and accordingly react. It must reach a crescendo that nations have no choice but to give up their lives for the sake of having a thriving economy. 

If economists can’t understand the global Dow Theory then what purpose do they serve? Economists should never relinquish Hobbes’ philosophy that the world is nasty, brutish and short when in a state of war. 
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Once again with 23 stock markets crashing and ten currencies on Wall Street's watch list one may reasonably conclude that we  heading for a deep and extended global  bear market and long-term economic slump.
Morgan Stanley's Fragile Five Swells To Troubled 10   In Selloff Forget the “Fragile Five.” These days, strategists at Morgan Stanley are worried about what could be called the “Troubled Ten.” That’s how many natio...
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