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I believe that successful ecosystems (or even platforms) need a disproportionately large donation of value in order to catalyse the cycle of adoption by users and developers. This article is fascinating because Wonder don't seem to have anything valuable or distinct that's going to catalyse their ecosystem. That suggests, if my theory holds, that they won't succeed. If they do succeed I'll have to re-evaluate my theory.

#prediction202005

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Tesla will have filed for Chapter 11 at least once by December 2022

#prediction202212
Originally shared by ****

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2017 prediction:

Among the "anti-regressive" pundits I follow, some shamelessly accommodated or even courted Donald Trump / his followers / his election, like Dave Rubin or Carl "Sargon of Akkad" Benjamin. Others, like Sam Harris, have clearly opposed Trump, even at the cost of supporting Hillary Clinton while despising her.

Prediction: this year won't be over before the people in the first group are forced to either make a big about-face – or maybe come out of the closet as conservatives. Meanwhile the people in the second group will be just fine, no 'spainin' needed.

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These are bad predictions. Theyre vague and dramatic which makes them hard to test or refute but easy to spread. Moreover they tell charming and dramatic stories about a future that isn't possible in just 12 months because they presume new infrastructure and a society capable of universal adoption of new technologies.

The annoying thing is that there will be many rigged demos that look superficially like these predictions so I expect the Nostradamus effect (where people retrospectively change their interpretations of your predictions) to kick in.

#prefiction201712
Tech Trends 2017
Tech Trends 2017
frogdesign.com

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The IEEE Computer Society is honest enough to revisit its predictions for 2016.
IEEE Computer Society Grades Its 2016 Technology Predictions – Gets a B+
Last year IEEE Computer Society released its 2016 technology predictions, bullish on the future of 5G, virtual and augmented reality, nonvolatile memory, cyber physical systems, data science, capability-based security, and more. Now we’ve graded our future view check out how we did and our hits and misses: https://www.computer.org/web/pressroom/2016-tech-grades

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Posting this to remind myself to check on this article on an annual basis to see if publishers really do "take it from here"

#prediction20161215

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