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Having To Be Right Shakes Your Mind

"People are culturally conditioned to have to be right. The parents are right, the teacher is right, the boss is right. Who is right overrules what is right. Couples have huge quarrels about considerations that are forgotten as the struggle for who is right rages on.

Political parties have institutionalized having to be right. How often has a political party welcomed the position of the other side? Imagine if all the energy that goes into trying to prove the other side wrong were channeled into actually thinking about what was best for whatever the dispute is about. Worse, having to be right becomes a barrier to learning and understanding. It keeps you away from growing, for there is no growth without changing, correcting, and questioning yourself.

If you have to be right, you put yourself in a hedged lane, but once you experience the power of not having to be right, you will feel like you are walking across open fields, the perspective wide and your feet free to take any turn."

~ John Naisbitt - Speaker in the area of future studies and author of Megatrends.

#AnticipateChange   #DecisionMaking  

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The Best Leaders Are Constant Learners
by +Kenneth Mikkelsen  +Harold Jarche 

Click the link to learn more about Personal Knowledge Mastery

"We live in a world that increasingly requires what psychologist Howard Gardner calls searchlight intelligence. That is, the ability to connect the dots between people and ideas, where others see no possible connection. An informed perspective is more important than ever in order to anticipate what comes next and succeed in emerging futures."
. . . 
"As we attempt to transition into a networked creative economy, we need leaders who promote learning and who master fast, relevant, and autonomous learning themselves. There is no other way to address the wicked problems facing us. If work is learning and learning is the work, then leadership should be all about enabling learning. In a recent Deloitte study, Global Human Capital Trends 2015, 85% of the respondents cited learning as being either important or very important. Yet, according to the study, more companies than ever report they are unprepared to address this challenge."
. . . 
"By seeking, sensing, and sharing, everyone in an organization can become part of a learning organism, listening at different frequencies, scanning the horizon, recognizing patterns and making better decisions on an informed basis."

#AnticipateChange   #DecisionMaking   #learning   #leadership  

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New on the Anticipate Change Blog: Data Storytelling for Disruptors

"Disruptive innovations have become common in these 'postnormal' times. Organisations that seek to be disruptive are fusing big data analytics with storytelling to nurture better business cultures. Narratives and data stories encourage participation in innovation. We share our recent experience and insights into data storytelling and disruptive innovation."

#AnticipateChange   #BigData   #Storytelling   #DriveInnovation   #DisruptiveInnovation   #Analysts   #SelfService  

Cause Analytics is here to help you navigate through Business Intelligence, understand today's challenges and tomorrow's technologies.

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Our postnormal times

An excellent overview of our "postnormal times" written in 2010 by Ziauddin Sardar, a London-based scholar called "Britain's own Muslim polymath" by The Independent newspaper. In these times of ours the power to #AnticipateChange  is essential, but also extremely difficult.

Excerpts:
All that was ‘normal’ has now evaporated; we have entered postnormal times, the in between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have not yet emerged, and nothing really makes sense. To have any notion of a viable future, we must grasp the significance of this period of transition which is characterized by three c’s: complexity, chaos and contradictions. These forces propel and sustain postnormal times leading to uncertainty and different types of ignorance that make decision-making problematic and increase risks to individuals, society and the planet.  / #DecisionMaking  
. . . 
Welcome to postnormal times. It’s a time when little out there can be trusted or gives us confidence. The espiritu del tiempo, the spirit of our age, is characterised by uncertainty, rapid change, realignment of power, upheaval and chaotic behaviour. We live in an in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have yet to be born, and very few things seem to make sense.  / #TodaysChallenges   #BlackSwanEvents  
. . . 
...globalisation enhances complexity not simply by making us interdependent but also by increasing our interconnections. In a globalised world, everything is connected to everything else. / #Globalisation  
. . . 
We are more connected and interconnected than any other time in history. The entire globe is a network criss-crossed by networks of individuals, groups, communities, institutions constantly connected to each other by e-mails, e-lists, internet newsgroups, mobile phones, text, video conferencing, blogs, twitter, facebook, myspace, interactive digital television and 24-h news broadcasts. There is hardly a place in the world where we can be alone. The mobile phone in your pocket tells those who want to know exactly where you are and enables you to communicate with any one at any time (almost) anywhere. More and more, communication is becoming instant, all encompassing, and ever present. Indeed, it seems that nowadays we do not communicate to live; but live to communicate. / #Social   #Mobile  
. . . 
It is now fashionable to argue that we are going through unprecedented change. Things have\always changed but they have not changed with the accelerating pace we are witnessing nowadays. Take, for example, information technology, which doubles its power, as measured in price, performance and bandwidth capacity, every year. In 25 years, it would have multiplied by a factor of a billion as we move from transistors to more powerful technologies such as nanotechnology or molecular computing.  / #InformationTechnology   #FutureTechnologies  
. . . 
In postnormal conditions, flexibility, adaptation and sensitivity to markedly different initial conditions require that we develop our ethical acuity to increase the diversity of our response. We are not looking for one solution but many alternatives which create positive feedback and momentum for common principles. Such an approach demands new thinking, effort and participation by everyone. / #Storytelling  

Featured in Data Storytelling for Disruptors
http://blog.causeanalytics.com/2014/10/data-storytelling-for-disruptors.html 

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Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy

Citation: McKinsey Global Institute, cuts through the noise and identifies 12 technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. The report also looks at exactly how these technologies could change our world, as well as their benefits and challenges, and offers guidelines to help leaders from businesses and other institutions respond.
. . . 
Business leaders should keep their organizational strategies updated in the face of continually evolving technologies, ensure that their organizations continue to look ahead, and use technologies to improve internal performance. Disruptive technologies can change the game for businesses, creating entirely new products and services, as well as shifting pools of value between producers or from producers to consumers. Organizations will often need to use business-model innovations to capture some of that value. Leaders need to plan for a range of scenarios, abandoning assumptions about where competition and risk could come from, and not be afraid to look beyond long-established models. Organizations will also need to keep their employees’ skills up-to-date and balance the potential benefits of emerging technologies with the risks they sometimes pose.

Source: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies

#Executives   #AnticipateChange   #DisruptiveInnovation   #DriveInnovation  

Posted by +Dan Durrant 

Cause Analytics is here to help you navigate through Business Intelligence, understand today's challenges and tomorrow's technologies.

www.CauseAnalytics.com
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Superforecasters

Philip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project, which begun in 2011, aims to find better ways to see into the future. Along with two other psychologists, Don Moore and Barbara Mellers, Tetlock's team have been running experiments with the co-operation of an army of volunteers that includes both amateurs with no forecasting experience and professionals with a background in intelligence analysis, think-tanks or academia. The participants received training in forecasting, and some of them were found to be “superforecasters” who can predict geopolitical events with an accuracy far outstripping chance. 

Citation: Barbara Mellers told me that the thinking style most associated with making better forecasts was something psychologists call “actively open-minded thinking”. A questionnaire to diagnose this trait invites people to rate their agreement or disagreement with statements such as, “Changing your mind is a sign of weakness.” The project found that successful forecasters aren’t afraid to change their minds, are happy to seek out conflicting views and are comfortable with the notion that fresh evidence might force them to abandon an old view of the world and embrace something new.
. . .
So what is the secret of looking into the future? Initial results from the Good Judgment Project suggest the following approaches. First, some basic training in probabilistic reasoning helps to produce better forecasts. Second, teams of good forecasters produce better results than good forecasters working alone. Third, actively open-minded people prosper as forecasters.

But the Good Judgment Project also hints at why so many experts are such terrible forecasters. It’s not so much that they lack training, teamwork and open-mindedness – although some of these qualities are in shorter supply than others. It’s that most forecasters aren’t actually seriously and single-mindedly trying to see into the future. If they were, they’d keep score and try to improve their predictions based on past errors. They don’t.

#AnticipateChange   #HumanResources  cc +David Pidsley 

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FUTURES WHEEL: Consider the consequences of various reactions

Leon Fuerth encourages us to question the implications of a "Future Contigency of Interest". A method to #AnticipateChange  

Posted by +Dan Durrant 

Cause Analytics is here to help you navigate through Business Intelligence, understand today's challenges and tomorrow's technologies.

www.CauseAnalytics.com

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Anticipatory Management: Tools for Better Decision Making

Citation: 
One way to understand what's going on outside the organization and use that understanding to make better decisions and plans is to follow the Anticipatory Management Decision Process Model (Figure 1). This "outside-in" intelligence flow chart has been used with great success in a variety of corporate settings. / #DecisionMaking  
. . . 
The first step is to identify emerging issues before they strike, much like earthquake forecasters scan fault lines for signs of abnormal activity. Because significant issues may emerge from unexpected places, it is important to scan the macroenvironment for social, technological, economic, environmental, and political developments. / #AnticipateChange   #BlackSwanEvents   

Anything can happen in any of these sectors to change the future, such as an oil embargo, a wave of immigration, or a new zoning ordinance. Trends and events converge to create issues, such as environmental protection, product liability, energy availability, and technostress. / #Globalisation  

A signal may be a demographic trend, such as a "baby bust," which may mean a severe dearth of entry-level workers in the future, or an environmental trend, such as a buildup of greenhouse gases, which portends global warming. As signals like these get louder, your action options narrow and your potential liabilities increase. Therefore, the sooner you can identify emerging issues, the more options you will have. You can use the following tools to identify emerging issues and where they are in their life cycle: / #Demographics  

Scanning, monitoring, and forecasting. Scanning identifies signals of change and monitoring follows these signals. [...] Next comes forecasting, which estimates the duration, direction, acceleration, and amplitude of the signals.

Challenging assumptions. We all have certain assumptions about our organization and the world. These assumptions develop over time and become filters, keeping out information that doesn't fit. For example, members of a school board may believe that "the Internet is just a fad." A few of the critical implicit assumptions held by the U.S. automobile industry in the 1970s included: "The American car market is isolated from the rest of the world," "Energy will always be cheap and abundant," and "The consumer movement does not represent the concerns of a significant portion of the American public." By the mid-1970s, such assumptions were beginning to lose their validity, but it took the Big Three 20 years to recognize it. That school board could face a similar lesson regarding the Internet.

Conducting issue vulnerability audits. What are the subtle, overlooked opportunities or threats that fall outside your organization's normal sphere of activity? Audit your organization's vulnerability to change and disruption that may result from new competitors, new regulations, special-interest-group initiatives, scientific discoveries, or media disclosures. Such an audit will increase your awareness of and sensitivity to external forces. It can assist you in surfacing strategic issues before they become critical and your opportunities for acting are constrained. 

Writing scenarios. The purpose of scenarios is to illuminate uncertainty. Scenarios help determine the ramifications of an issue's development along several alternative paths, which enables you to examine an issue's implications over time.

Posted by +Dan Durrant 


Cause Analytics is here to help you navigate through Business Intelligence, understand today's challenges and tomorrow's technologies.

www.CauseAnalytics.com
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Forget the CV, data decide careers #HumanResources  

Are recruiters arriving at the point when "crunching data could replace the human touch of job interviews"? This article shares interesting examples of how HR services provider Ceridian,  Xerox, IBM, and LV= have used #BigData  and #DataMining  in their recruitment efforts.

“Big data” and complex algorithms are increasingly taking decisions out of the hands of individual interviewers – a trend that has far-reaching consequences for job seekers and recruiters alike.

Posted by +Dan Durrant w/ +David Pidsley 

Cause Analytics is here to help you navigate through Business Intelligence, understand today's challenges and tomorrow's technologies.

www.CauseAnalytics.com

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The Disruption Debate - What's Missing?

John Hagel steps beyond the debate between Lepore and Christensen to offer us a broader view of #DisruptiveInnovation .

Citation: We all know the iconic cases of disruption casualties, including such large and well-known leaders as Kodak, Borders, Digital Equipment Corporation. But those are just the tip of the iceberg. There’s mounting evidence that disruption is spreading.

Re: #AnticipateChange   
One of the issues with a case study approach is that it obscures the more fundamental and systemic trends and patterns that are playing out around us. When we pull back from individual stories and scan the world around us, it becomes clear that something very profound is happening - and it's largely escaped notice.
. . . .
Re: #MarketIntelligence  
As Joseph Schumpeter famously observed, markets are a powerful engine for "creative destruction" - they invite competitors with a better idea or a better approach to come in and challenge incumbents. It happens all the time. But the key question on the table from this more systemic view of disruption is: why is it increasing so dramatically over a long period of decades?
. . . .
Re: #FutureTechnologies  
This exponentially improving digital technology is spilling over into adjacent technologies, catalyzing similar waves of disruption in diverse arenas like 3D printing of physical objects, biosynthesis of living tissue, robotics and automobiles, just to name a few. The advent of exponentially improving technologies in an expanding array of markets and industries only increases the potential for disruption. We’ve explored this expansion of exponential technologies in a working paper here. http://goo.gl/2jwDbX

Re: #Globalisation  
And this is just one of the forces at work.  There’s a second force at work as well – a long-term shift in public policy on a global basis towards freer movement of people, goods, money and ideas across geographic and industry boundaries.  Certainly this has unfolded at a different pace in different geographies and industries, but if one steps back and looks at the period from World War II to today, the trend is clear and significant.

Posted by +Dan Durrant 

Cause Analytics is here to help you navigate through Business Intelligence, understand today's challenges and tomorrow's technologies.

www.CauseAnalytics.com
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