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Mid-Atlantic states are preparing for what could be record setting rainfall this week.
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  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A:

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
     EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

#tornado   #weather  
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North Carolina NWS Discussion:
SEVERE: IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING ARE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF REALIZING SUCH A SCENARIO IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OUTSIDE OF THIS DISCUSSION. 
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SUMMARY...A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN SC SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CNTRL NC THROUGH 07Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
   NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
   ERN NC/VA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
   EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
   CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BROAD
   AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
   LOW EXTENDS FROM MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NC/SC.

   OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN SC AS OF 00Z INDICATE NEAR-FREEZING SFC
   TEMPERATURES...AND RECENT NSSL MPING REPORTS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW
   MIX IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE
   LOW/MID-LEVELS CONTINUES. AS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES NEWD INTO
   CNTRL NC WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...
   COOLING AND MOISTENING OF THE DRY SFC-700 MB LAYER EVIDENT IN THE
   00Z GSO SOUNDING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM A
   RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CNTRL NC THROUGH 07Z. STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW
   WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR LIKELY. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM
   NRN MS/AL/GA...AND SREF PROBABILITIES...LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
   RATES OF 2+ IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
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Latest 4k NAM p-type forecast for the southeast....
#winter   #snow   #sleet  
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Scary high STP(Significant Tornado Parameter) values forecasted by the NAM over eastern NC on Monday. Sever parameters and CAPE will be more than sufficient, but actual convection initiation may be limited due to poor dynamic lifting.
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Tonight NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility and Virginia’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport are set to support the launch of Orbital Sciences’ Antares rocket at 6:45 p.m. EDT, Oct. 27. This will be visible for many areas of eastern North Carolina. In Charlotte the further east the better. It will be low on the horizon so get up high or above the tree line to grab a view.
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2014-10-27
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DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION...CAROLINAS...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MAY OFFER MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS.
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Stunning photo of the North Carolina mountains with fall foliage and sun streaked skies. 

Thanks to Justin Askew for sharing.
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This is going to be a long duration severe threat, not one and done. #cltwx   #ncwx   #scwx  
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