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September 19, 2017 severe weather/tropical update #1:
Enhanced risk of severe weather remains in the first day one convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, and has now been extended eastward to included western Minnesota. A moist low level airmass streaming northward beneath steep mid level lapse rates will produce moderately strong buoyancy with SBCAPE reaching values near 3,000 J/Kg in the afternoon. As a strong upper level disturbance ejects a strong and diffluent speed maximum over the risk area, deep layer shear will increase to around 45-50 kts and surface low pressure deepening will induce the development of a considerable LLJ overlapping large CAPE values. This flow should be sufficiently strong and veered within low levels to produce strongly curved hodographs indicative of 0-3 km SRH of 350-400 m2/s2. Given this combination, supercells will initially develop in the Dakotas with a risk for large/very large hail and some tornadoes (the magnitude of this risk may me hindered by diurnal boundary layer mixing, but details regarding this development remain somewhat ambiguous and strong shear on multiple levels should still contribute to a tornado risk). Damaging winds are likely as convective structures coalesce into bowing linear segments/LEWPs during the evening hours as they spread into Minnesota. To continue monitoring developments on this severe weather risk, see the link I have provided for the SPC homepage.

Meanwhile, preparations for Hurricane Maria should be nearing completion in Puerto Rico and then the Dominican Republic as conditions will soon be deteriorating. EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY AT 2 AM EDT HAS DOWNGRADED IT TO A CATEGORY 4 STORM, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH IT'S SIGNIFICANCE NOR IT'S DANGER. There is a severe threat to life and property in the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. All instructions given by local officials and NWS warnings should be followed very closely.

Hurricane Jose is forecast to gradually weaken into a high-end tropical storm as it nears the East Coast, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin later tonight and into Wednesday for coastal Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

Links:

SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

NWS San Juan: http://www.weather.gov/sju/
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