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Forex forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF on 16 – 20 October 2017.

First a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

– recall that the overwhelming majority of experts expect a slight strengthening of the dollar. According to their forecasts, the EUR/USD pair could fall to support 1.1660, but this has not happened, and low of the week was recorded at 60 points higher – at the level of 1.1720. True was the forecast, which gave a graphical analysis, supported by indicators on H4 and only 15% of analysts. Under this scenario, a couple of expected fracture trend and moving North – first to the resistance 1.1835, and in case of breakdown is even higher, to the height of 1.2035. This scenario was implemented, however, to consolidate above the mentioned resistance, the pair failed and it ended the week in the area 1.1820;

– speaking of the future GBP/USD, 45% of analysts are assured that the pair can not break the strong medium-term support in the 1.3000 area–1.3045 and, in the same way as EUR/USD, will go up. This was agreed and about a third oscillator on the H4 and D1, who signalized its oversold. In the end-called the altitude of 1.3250, which the pair reached in the first half of Thursday, then fell 140 points down. However, the joy of bears were premature, and the bulls quickly erased losses. In the end the weekend the pair met at the level of 1.3282;

– one of the scenarios, supported by a third of experts and the majority of the indicators on H4, suggested that before you continue driving North, USD/JPY should test the local bottom in the area of 111.75–112.00. What happened over the week the pair has lost around 80 points and stood at around 111.83;

THE USD/CHF. The evidence of the majority of indicators and graphical analysis talked about the fact that this pair first again try to reach the high of the previous week at the height of 0.9835, then return to the 0.9770 support, try to break it and, if successful, will fall to the level of 0.9685. In reality, it so happened, however, volatility was somewhat less than expected. Initially, the pair rose to the level of 0.9806, and then returned to the 0.9770 support, broke through it and find the local bottom at the level of 0.9700. The end of the weekly session, the pair met in the area of the October Pivot Point 0.9745.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summing up the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies and forecasts based on most different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

– EUR/USD. Tensions with North Korea, the Declaration of US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, the fighting in Syria, a possible rise in oil prices, the change of leadership of the Federal reserve, the extraordinary economic summit of the EU – all this and more makes the economic situation is so uncertain that neither in the short nor in the medium term, experts are not yet able to create any new consensus. 45% of them vote for a rise, a 45% decline, and 10% just shrug.
As for the indicators, on the H4, they imitate the cacophony of analysts. But in D1 the situation is more specific – 80% of them are green in color. However, 20% of the oscillators have already turned red, signalling the pair is overbought.
And finally, the graphical analysis. Summing up his testimony on H4 and D1, it is possible to hold the support line at 1.1750 levels, and 1.1685 1.1600 resistance 1.1920 and 1.2030;

– the situation with the pair GBP/USD comparing with EUR/USD, looks, though not much, but more clearly. Here 55% of analysts, and graphical analysis on D1 sided with the bears, predicting a decline of the pair to 1.3150 support, and, in the case of its breakdown to 110 points lower – to the level of 1.3040.
The remaining 45% of the experts and the vast majority (85%) of the indicators I think that the trend of last week will continue, and the pair will climb at least till 1.3450 resistance. The next resistance is 1.3600. However, in this case in the beginning of the week may be some downward correction, as a quarter of the oscillator is in the overbought zone;

– USD/JPY. Here a quarter of the oscillators and on the H4, and D1 indicates the oversold of this pair. This confirms the opinion of most experts that the pair is on the way to the upper limit of the medium-term sideways channel 108.00–114.50, and is expected to surge.
However, it is necessary to consider that now the pair is in the zone of the Pivot Point of this channel, and therefore, it some time can still move along the line, fluctuating in the range 110.65–112.20;

– and finally, the last pair in our review – USD/CHF. Graphical analysis, trend indicators and oscillators took a neutral position. A slight advantage of bulls can be noted in the testimony of graphical analysis on the H4, according to which the pair committed in a zone of 0.9800–0.9835.
But as the experts, here 75% of the votes for the fall. Support at 0.9700 levels, and 0.9670 0.9560.

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