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„This year has been a terrible year for wildfires across the globe. And there doesn't appear to be an end in sight.“
„Over the last several weeks, more than a dozen massive blazes have swept through Northern California, killing 41 people, destroying 6,000 homes and devastating the area's celebrated wine country.“
„Authorities have called the disaster the deadliest and most destructive series of blazes in California history. Across the US, the government has spent more than $2.7 billion (€2.2 billion euros) on firefighting in its just-finished budget year, a new record.
Thousands have been evacuated in northwestern Spain in recent days, with fires killing at least four people.“
„In neighboring Portugal, a series of wildfires broke out on Sunday in the center and north of the country, killing 41 and injuring another 71, according to the civil protection agency. These latest fires came after similar huge blazes in June killed 64 people, making 2017 the deadliest year on record for forest fires in the country.“
....
"A lot of these things are happening locally, but people don't always connect them to climate change," said Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the US. "But there is a real climate change component to this and the risk is going up because of climate change."
....
„Climate change isn't the only man-made factor. Fires can also be started by careless humans dropping cigarettes or letting campfires burn out of control.
And in regions like the Amazon, where the annual fire season increased by 19 percent between 1979 and 2013, fire is deliberately used to clear forest to make way for agriculture. "Farmers light fires to clear an area and what happens in drought conditions is that these fires become wild because the vegetation is so dry, it gets out of control," said Trenberth.“
„All this can have a feedback effect — more fires mean more carbon released into the atmosphere, which in turn drives climate change.“

Read also https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/SG1r1D24UF9


http://p.dw.com/p/2iTSn
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“Despite the diplomatic success achieved by the international community with the Paris Climate Agreement, efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions are progressing at a sluggish pace. The existing climate protection measures will not be enough to limit the rise in global mean temperature to below two degrees Celsius, and strategies to adapt to climate change are still in the early stages of development. As a result, targeted interventions in the climate system, known collectively as ‘climate engineering’, have received increased attention in recent years.”

There are to my knowledge no climate models, reliable and accurate enough to predict with confidence the outcome of climate engineering large scale experiments.
The world average temperature is a political motivated concept, only indirect related to the set of physical variables which describe the earth climate system; read also about the average see level and the see level rise at shores https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/WsCR44dFoMG.
An exponential growing earth population (read human population through time https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/fefTQYfxVPe ) is not climate neutral. The climate gas concentration will further increase while the human population grows. Is climate science guided by a political target or by the scientific method? The climate change cannot be addressed by putting worthless climate certificates into a bad bank.

“The various approaches to climate engineering can be broadly grouped into two categories. One group of measures seeks to remove carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The second group bundles various approaches that seek to either reflect more sunlight away from the Earth or to allow more heat to escape from the climate system. These two sets of approaches – carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) – are addressed in the new English-language fact sheets published by the IASS.”

The “fact sheet”merely discuss one climate gas parameter. I don’t think that there is today a sufficient scientific understanding to discuss with confidence the change of merely one climate parameter (carbon dioxide) in an complex non-linear climate system. The fact sheets might suggest a knowledge about the climate-system which today simply does not exist; read also about life style choices and climate https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/RkHL5GH53YB.

Kevin Trenberth, a lead author for the UN’s intergovernmental panel on climate change mentioned: “Natural alterations to the earth’s radiation balance can be short-lasting, but terrifying. A 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption lowered global temperatures by 0.5C, while the Mount Tambora eruption in 1815 triggered Europe’s ‘year without a summer’, bringing crop failure, famine and disease." Source https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/24/us-scientists-launch-worlds-biggest-solar-geoengineering-study?CMP=share_btn_link

Believing that a country like germany, whose authorities cannot even monitor the emissions of Diesel car, can control a large scale climate engineering measure is absurde and requires currently not further discussion.

Well - actually the human society is currently performing large scale experiments with the oceans and atmosphere. Large amounts of climate gases are added to the atmosphere (‪https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/VWhStrryk2G‬ ) and the pollution of the oceans is unprecedented ( ‪https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/JmtpBcmWXHm‬ ), ( “Garbage Patches” https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/Nr5fpxmN4mW )
Furthermore, the technical decrease of the temperature alone through geo-engineering does not mitigate the human impact on the ecosystem
‪( https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/AE7Q1Qyo2gi‬ ).

So far humans even failed to build an small stable biosphere ( ‪https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosphere_2‬ ). Building an stable biosphere is not simple, even with trillions of dollars. The earth biosphere is a complex non-linear system with finite resources, politician don't really understand it. Short term linear financial thinking does not work. I think there are some obvious things that can be done, like banning fossil fuel cars from our cities, producing more green energy, preserving the oceans and other important natural biotopes, discuss how many people can live self-preserving in a region, etc. But today humans can't even create a local self-sustained biosphere, which indicates how little is known. Its not about temperatures, it is about the stability of the biosphere.

I would suggest climate scientist first perform experiment in an closed bios-sphere. This way the prediction of climate models can be verified and effects of climate-engineering experiments can be performed without jeopardizing the natural environment we all life in. The next step would be a large scale climate experiment on another planet like Mars. If this too is successful, then politician could consider climate-engineering for our home-planet. Meanwhile politics should just do the obvious!

http://www.iass-potsdam.de/en/news-media/news/iass-fact-sheets-review-state-climate-engineering-research
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I think this is a serious study, people should pay attention to. Notwithstanding that we cannot project a past climate phase into the future and that I think there is (to my knowledge) no reliable climate model. Note a computer simulation is a computer program, but it has not necessary an underlying physical model. However, I think scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for space studies and the Lamont-Doherty earth observatory, smartly combined the available knowledge about draughts. A similar trend can be observed in southern europe. It is quite natural that the climate zones move to north at the end of an ice age. The speed and magnitude is however not natural and in combination with an exponential growing human population likely unprecedented in earth history.

https://youtu.be/8p9oJWg2FSI
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We are the bees, in regard to pollution! Read also https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/7cqoTz1Gtjr

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-talks-breast-feeding/

„In the words of Rosalynn Carter, “There is nothing more important than a good, safe and secure home”. It is believed that a house is the most secure and healthy environment for any individual. However, the house can also be a source of various air pollutants that can have a significant adverse impact on health.“ Source https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5089137/
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How many people could not afford an insurance plan which covers the terrible loss? Is this a case of simplified decision making https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/8NXXnj1r6ko ? No, I think it is a reckless quest for profit to sell houses in some areas without an storm, fire or flood insurance.

“Residents of the American West are already experiencing a particularly brutal wildfire season, one that has caused thousands to flee their homes, turned buildings to charred skeletons and spread a thick smoke across hundreds of miles — just as people in coastal areas of the country have battled the floods and winds of hurricanes.”
.....
“In recent decades, fire seasons have grown longer and more destructive, something scientists attribute in part to increased dryness caused by climate change. (Scientists from the University of Idaho and Columbia University wrote in one study published last year that climate change had caused more than half of the dryness of Western forests since 1979.)”
“The confluence of expanding development and warming temperatures has intensified a discussion among policy makers about how the nation will protect people from fires going forward — and how it will find the money to do so. Already, 2017 has been the most expensive fire season on record for the U.S. Forest Service, with fire-suppression costs exceeding $2 billion.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/10/us/california-fires.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share

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Is decision decision-making limited by economic and social constrains or by individual cognitive limitations? Is it possible to model a tsunami be describing the behavior of individual free molecules?

“However, the discrepancies between theory and reality are sometimes both systematic and signifcant“
....
„and all its long-term consequences. This is quite simply an insurmountable task, so decisions are often taken using a narrow focus“ Source https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2017/popular-economicsciences2017.pdf

Yes, especially in a world where more and more people are looking for living space, non- polluted fresh water and clean air in overpopulated cities.

„...Economics Laureate Herbert Simon developed the concept of bounded rationality – limited rationality – as a collective term for organisations’ and people’s cognitive limitations and simplifed decision-making rules. One example of such limitations is found in Richard Thaler’s theory of mental accounting, which describes how people organise, formulate, and evaluate fnancial decisions. We tend to simplify such decisions by creating separate accounts in our minds, making individual decisions on the basis of their efect on each of these accounts rather than on our total assets. One example is how many people divide their household budget into one account for house-hold bills, another for holidays, etc., with rules that prevent using money from one account to pay for something in another. This behaviour sometimes leads to extra costs, such as not using money from long-term savings accounts for short-term needs, instead taking out expensive consumer loans. At the same time, this can help us to plan our fnances and protect long-term savings.“ Source https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2017/popular-economicsciences2017.pdf

.... instead taking out expensive consumer loans. Yes, because most people don‘t understand the mathematics of exponential growth pattern associated with interest rates and see in addition each day dubios commercial offers in the media for consumer loans.
Governments buy the way also take out expensive loans to balance public finances, to be paid off by the next generation. Some governments also cut public social security benefits to finance political projects. Some governments created bad banks which bought large amount of junk certificates to save banks driven by financial irrationality.

“In the twelfth song of the Odyssey, Circe warns Odysseus about the Sirens, who lure sailors with their enchanting singing. Odysseus who, like his crew, wanted to return home to Ithaca, solves the problem by plugging the crew’s ears with beeswax and then tying himself to the mast, with strict orders to the crew to ignore whatever he says until they are out of harm’s way. Odysseus’ problem is the epitome of this dilemma at all levels of our life, when we are tested by short-term temptations that threaten long-term wellbeing. This could be food and drink, smoking, consumption, saving for distant goals, or post-retirement planning. A person who chooses a longer education has a lower income during their studies, but can in return look forward to benefts in the future” Source https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2017/popular-economicsciences2017.pdf


Like ignoring pipeline leaks to increase short term profits https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/F3eM5MJgX5q ?
Like using plastic for short term convenience https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/F5f7Z4vTZEu ?
Like building houses in regions effected by a changing climate https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/UP5gCbxrfDn ?
Like clearing natural vegetation for farmland https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/gdtJtu5ba5M ?
Like displacing natural habitats by cities https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/ToP79qMq6uC ?
Like an efficient world wide transportation system without any environmental standards https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/DJprdtD1kDb ?
Like the creation of antibiotic resistance https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/aAKoydvWpz8 ?
Like oil drilling in the artic https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/dbQLXtv63dN ?
......
......

#NobelPrize

https://youtu.be/1cIz_dP21qU

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„On the global scale, the contamination is really striking,” says study coauthor Edward Mitchell, a soil biologist at the University of Neuchâtel in Switzerland. The pesticides are used on many kinds of crops grown in different climates, but traces of the chemicals showed up even in honey from remote islands with very little agriculture.“

“I used to think of neonicotinoids as being a [localized] problem next to a small set of crops,” says Amro Zayed, who studies bees at York University in Toronto and wasn’t involved in the research. These pesticides “are much more prevalent than I previously thought.”

„Mitchell and his team crowdsourced 198 honey samples from around the world, asking friends and colleagues to send local honey from their home countries or vacation destinations.“

Read also the full text Nerve agents in honey http://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/38.full

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/much-worlds-honey-now-contains-pesticides-harm-bees
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I think this answers the question, whether the german transport infrastructure is climate resistance.

„Hundreds of people were stranded as their trains were canceled in the capital. Deutsche Bahn canceled long-distance trains to and from Berlin as well as services in Lower Saxony, Schleswig Holstein and Bremen and commuter trains in Hamburg.“

„Bremen and Hanover airports canceled some international flights.“

„Passengers arriving in Berlin remained on board their aircraft as the storm swept over Tegel and Schoenefeld airports and authorities temporarily suspended operations.“

„The German Weather Service (DWD) said the storm had reached hurricane-strength wind speeds of between 105 and 115 kilometers (65 and 71 miles) per hour.“

For comparison the storm which devastated the Caribbean islands had wind speeds of 250 kilometers per hour. Well - billions are invested each year in prestige projects like the Berlin Brandenburg Airport (over 6 billion - https://www.schwarzbuch.de/aufgedeckt/fall-details/ein-bitteres-fazit-fuer-die-steuerzahler/) and Stuttgart 21, while the general transportation infrastructure cannot withstand a gale force.

http://p.dw.com/p/2lHu3
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One of the great challenges today is the population explosion. Unless we are able to tackle this issue effectively we will be confronted with the problem of the natural resources being inadequate for all the human beings on earth ... The only choice-limited number ... happy life ... meaningful life. Too many ... miserable life and always bullying one another, exploiting one another. - The Dalia Lama (Quote taken from the book Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot (“Over”))

Well, there might be another choice, if humans learn to build biospheres on other planets. I think in modern history, in any crisis, during any catastrophe, the world population continued to grow, except for the short black death period. Now since the world is approaching an phase of antibiotic resistance, a pandemic is currently a likely scenario for the end of an exponential population growth phase. The question is, learn humans to build biospheres on other planer before such a world wide pandemic? Chris Hadfield speaks about ambitious plans for space travel; https://youtu.be/IICfYjw7LA4 . “The US and Russia on Wednesday announced plans to cooperatively build the first lunar space station. Work on a joint US-Russia space station orbiting the Moon is to begin in the mid 2020s. The base is intended to serve as a launching point for manned missions to Mars......Taking into account the country's extensive experience in developing docking units, the station's future elements — as well as standards for life-support systems — will be created using Russian designs.“ Source http://p.dw.com/p/2kqFj

Russian Design for docking units? Maybe they should talk to Space-X for an design update. What are the European plans - saving the world through social programs and arms trade?

https://youtu.be/PUwmA3Q0_OE
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“You are the only contemporary physicist, besides Laue, who sees that one cannot get around the assumption of reality—if only one is honest. Most of them simply do not see what sort of risky game they are playing with reality—reality as something independent of what is experimentally established.”
Albert Einstein to Erwin Schrödinger 22.12.1950
(Source Kindle Book: Letters on Wave Mechanics Correspondence with H.A. Lorentz, Max Planck and Erwin Schrödinger Albert Einstein, Edited by K. Przibram)

Press Release: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2017: “Gravitational waves spread at the speed of light, filling the universe, as Albert Einstein described in his general theory of relativity. They are always created when a mass accelerates, like when an ice-skater pirouettes or a pair of black holes rotate around each other. Einstein was convinced it would never be possible to measure them. The LIGO project's achievement was using a pair of gigantic laser interferometers to measure a change thousands of times smaller than an atomic nucleus, as the gravitational wave passed the Earth.” Source https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/2017/press.html

Without the general theory of relativity, physicist would not even consider the existence of gravitational waves, not to mention design an experiment like LIGO. On the other hand if discrete physical measurements are done without an solid underlying theory (like I think earth temperature measurements), then the assumption of the existence of an smooth mathematical function which relates these discrete measurements may be nothing more than an mathematical interpolation, not related to an physical theory. An example will be given in an additional chapter of this book; https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/gzY7SSPCYvC

Popular Science Background: https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/2017/popular-physicsprize2017.pdf

Scientific Background: https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/2017/advanced-physicsprize2017.pdf

From the scientific background article: “There are two main problems that need to be confronted. First, due to the coordinate covariance of general relativity, one runs the risk that the solution studied is nothing else than flat space viewed in an unusual coordinate system. Second, one must make sure that the solutions at the linear level still hold at the non-linear level. Einstein had serious doubts himself about the reality of the waves, and in 1936 he attempted to publish a paper in Physical Review together with his assistant Nathan Rosen, claiming that the waves did not exist.”
....
“While these waveforms provide a reasonable match, further important improvements are obtained using numerical methods that are very computationally intensive [23]. The analytical methods are crucial to producing the big library of template waveforms used by LIGO.”

This is a post I wrote over a year ago https://plus.google.com/116010873343713831202/posts/H4J21HfjoQu . Guess the numerical results are now validated by scientist outside the LIGO Scientific Collaboration and Virgo Collaboration - great results! However, I am still curious concerning the details of the numerical methods cited in the scientific background article. Analyzing these numerical methods outside an appropriate research facility, as a private person, is however impossible.

I think the Harten-Lax-Leer-Einfeldt Riemann solver is today also used for black hole simulations; see for example http://arxiv.org/pdf/1111.1677.pdf or http://arxiv.org/pdf/0804.0594.pdf for general relativistic simulations of black hole-neutron star mergers. Many articles don´t reference my paper (On Godunov-Type Methods for Gas Dynamics, SIAM J. Numer. Anal.) in relation to the HLLE scheme. The reference is often made only to the article by A. Harten, P. D. Lax, and B. van Leer, SIAM Rev. 25, which does not contain the description of the HLLE scheme! Until today was it unfortunately not feasible to publish additional work, which besides others are related to the validity of linear numerical methods for non-linear problems and an integration of quantum principles in the HLLE scheme.

Telephone Interview with Rainer Weiss https://youtu.be/FNOFMDi1RPc
He said: “Space is enormously stiff, You can’t squish it.” In the HLLE scheme I assumed on the other hand, that space (regarded as a perfect homogeneous “stiff fluid”) cannot contain sharp shear interfaces. Thus, if the HLLE scheme can be used for black hole simulations and linearized methods fail, then some regularity assumptions in the theory of relativity must be reconsidered. But I guess young students don’t ask such questions.
Telephone Interview with Kip S. Thorne https://youtu.be/udd7lySXLoM
Telephone Interview with Barry C. Barish https://youtu.be/6MXXrBUG9vI
Einstein preferred to work alone, would he get funded today by research organizations which enforce collaboration? Would Albert Einstein get today a nobel prize for his work on gravitation? (https://twitter.com/nobelprize/status/915174563687931904)
Einstein was not a great university teacher either - would he today find a position at universities like MIT or Caltech?

#NobelPrize
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