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The head of IMF can't imagine that there will be a 'no deal' regarding Brexit.

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Raghuram Rajan outlines the scenario where unaccounted money ( 'black money' ) lying idle before demonetisation, is now earning interest.

You felt the shortterm economic costs of demonetisation might outweigh possible longerterm benefits. Aside from slower GDP growth, what are the other costs?

'One of the costs which people haven't paid enough attention to is (that) this was money sitting, if you believe it was black money, it was sitting in people's safes or in their basement. It wasn't earning any interest. Once it gets into the formal system, if you haven't identified it as bad money, there are people gaining interest on it. So you are paying people now for their black money because they have put it back in the system.'

If the expectation was that Rs 34 lakh crore were held in dodgy cash, you probably ended up paying Rs 0,00012,000 crore at a savings bank interest rate of 4%?

'Four percent would be Rs 16,000 crore on Rs 4 lakh crore. But remember the RBI is sucking this excess liquidity out at 6%, so it's about Rs 24, 000 crore then. That's what you have to pay every year if it stays in the system ... The fact that the RBI surplus has come down by Rs 30,000 crore-plus suggests that this is not an insignificant cost and over and above note printing and note cleaning up. So when people thump on the table and say we have formalised this, I think they misunderstand what cash actually is.'

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Richard Thaler wins the Nobel Prize for Economics, 2017, for his work in behavioural economics.

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Possibly for the first time in independent India there is an absolute decline in employment between 2013-14 & 2015-16. This at a time when almost all emerging economies have been experiencing good growth in employment generation during the same period.

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Over the last 1.5 years and more, emerging economies have had it good generally. Inflation has been down, employment generation up and GDP growths generally more than satisfactory. India, which has been in sync with these trends in the past has bucked these trends over the last one year. Ruchir Sharma explores some of the possible reasons.

The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development says that all 45 economies that it tracks will grow this year, the first time this has happened since 2007, the year before the global financial crisis led to a worldwide recession. Moreover, three quarters of all the countries will grow faster this year than they did last year; India is in the slumping minority, with GDP growth now expected to decelerate this year.

In the global jobs picture, India stands out as even more of a sore thumb. The worldwide unemployment rate, as calculated by JP Morgan research, is almost back to its pre-2008 crisis low of 5.5 per cent. Developed economies from the UK to Japan have the lowest unemployment rates seen in many decades. In emerging economies, the unemployment rate has been falling since 2014 and this year even countries such as Russia and Brazil, which experienced deep recessions, are seeing a marked improvement in the labour market. In India, meanwhile poor quality data makes it difficult to put a number on the job woes, but the available data is grim and news stories about jobs losses abound.

So why is the Indian economy, which rose and fell with global trends for so long, bucking them now? One theory points the finger at India’s high real or inflation-adjusted interest rates, but real rates have risen in most countries this year as inflation has unexpectedly declined everywhere; so this can’t explain why India is different now. A part of the explanation is that the broad economic recovery has led to a rebound in global trade, which had slumped badly after the 2008 crisis, and India is sitting out this recovery. Indian exports have picked up this year, but much less than in other emerging nations.

The best explanation lies in recent domestic policy moves, as until last year both India and emerging markets broadly were slowing down in sync. A disconnect began late last year when growth in emerging markets started recovering and India kept slowing.

The first of the policy moves was the unique demonetisation experiment. The second was the Goods and Services Tax, which was supposed to bring India in line with global standards but instead added typically Indian layers of complexity. These policies disrupted local businesses, including exporters. Imports have surged to meet consumer demand, widening the trade deficit and cutting into GDP growth.

In summation, while emerging economies have seldom had it so good over the past decade in terms of key parameters like inflation, employment generation & GDP growth, India has bucked this trend generally for the past year and more.

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What are the primary worries of South Asia's young and what are they doing about it.

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As the Indian economy slumps how many jobs is it taking down with it?
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