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Environmental Criminology Research Inc. (ECRI)
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We develop and supply Geographic Profiling and Criminal Investigative software
We develop and supply Geographic Profiling and Criminal Investigative software

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What are Hit Scores?

The result of a Geographic Profile is a description of an optimal search process. A search that starts in the highest (i.e. most probable) area and works outward is more likely to find the offender’s residence sooner than a random search process. Search efficiency is therefore an indicator of the performance of the Geographic Profiling model, and can be measured by determining the proportion of the total hunting area covered before the offender’s residence is encountered. This ratio is referred to as the “hit score percentage”. The smaller this number, the better the focus of the geographic profile. The actual size of the region it represents is called the search area.

The following map shows the Hit Scores of 70+ actual cases with a calculated median of 3.0% and a standard deviation of 4.4%

Definitions:

Hit Score -  The value (z-score) associated with the location of an offender’s residence or anchor point.

Hit Score Percentage  -  An indicator of search efficiency used in geographic profiling, measured by determining the proportion of the total hunting area covered before the offender’s residence is encountered. The smaller the number, the better the focus of the geographic profile.


 
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Want to explore the world from the comfort of your computer? Try Geoguessr - we are all obsessed with it at the moment! #geoguessr  #gis #explore #awesome  

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How does geographic profiling work?

The locations where crimes happen are not completely random, but instead often have a degree of underlying spatial structure. As chaotic as they may sometimes appear to be, there is often a rationality influencing the geography of their occurrence. Crimes tend to occur at locations where, in terms of profit and risk, offenders find suitable victims/targets. As an offender travels between his home, workplace, and social activity sites, his or her activity space (composed of these locations and their connecting paths) describe an awareness region which forms part of a larger mental map—an "image of the city" built upon experience and knowledge.

The input to the geographic profiling system is a series of discrete events tied to specific geographic locations. The software presents the results in the form of a 2-D or 3-D result value map showing the most-probable locations of the centre of activity. In the 3-D image, the dark red area predicts, in this case, the street containing the offender’s residence, with a 70% confidence level.

This application relies on certain known propensities of serial criminals which support this type of analysis, such as a tendency to hunt in known areas, a desire to disguise the home location, quantifiable criteria for perceived distance to crime sites, and an identifiable set of characteristics relating the crimes to a single serial criminal.

The calculation employed to derive the output map from the input data is based on a complex statistical calculation, modified by an application-specific function based on the type of input data and the type of analysis to be performed.

Geographic profiling depends heavily on two key factors:

Valid linkage analysis to determine that a set of crime sites belong to the same series

Valid geographic modeling of the travel distance to crime sites for a particular type of crime, criminal, and geographic area

The first factor is the responsibility of a linkage analysis system such as ViCLAS or VICAP. The second is embodied in Rigel™, ECRI’s Geographic Profiling system.

#Rigel #rigelanalyst #geoprofile   #gis   #crimemapping   #awesome    #geographicprofiling  #software #crimeanalysis  #crime 
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Texas State University - Dr. Kim Rossmo, pioneer of geographic profiling, has worked on over 200 criminal investigations including analyzing the geographic locations of the Zodiac Killer’s crimes. (The Zodiac Killer. who may or may not still be alive, has not been caught, but based on his findings, Dr. Rossmo believes the case is solvable.)

Here's some additional info about #geographicprofiling   #criminalprofiling  
#texasstateuniversity  

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Geographic crime analysis, also referred to as #crimemapping, is the analysis of the spatial distribution of crime within a given geographical area.

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Check out the new Rigel Analyst 2013! #crimeanalysis   #geographicprofiling   #gis   #geoprofile   #crime   #crimemapping   #software   #rigel   #rigelanalyst   #kimrossmo  
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