Tony Lloyd
Tony Lloyd's posts
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A positive case for the EU﻿
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Why is Britain in the EU?
The same reason Mercia is in Britain. This is a bit of Britain, around about 912 c.e. There are six kingdoms and some strange Danelaw entity ("The Five Boroughs") on that map whereas now they are subsumed into one state. Mercia is now a vaguely defined regi...﻿
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Tony Lloyd commented on a post on Blogger.
“T]he statement "no matter how improbable this universe is by chance, the probability of God is even less" is tantamount to saying "the probability of God existing is zero."

You need to have an extremely narrow, literal, reading of “no matter how improbable” for this to be the case.  It does not follow if what is meant is “practically no matter …” or “no matter how small a probability we specify”.

You’re taking “no matter” to really mean “no matter” with not the slightest bit of approximation or exaggeration.  Now if you’re going to hold Dawkins to that then you really ought to pay attention when you say:

“(A)ll scientists would agree that epsilon is very small...something like 10^-50 or less”

All?  Not one, no approximation, no discounting of outliers?

Motes and beams anyone?

In your original post you said that you hadn't read The God Delusion.  Are you confident that Dawkins actually say that? Relying on an (honest) summary of someone’s position can be fine but, when your conclusion rests on such a fine point you really should go to source.

“Using Bayesian inference, we can easily come up with:

P(G|U) = P(G)/(epsilon + P(G)).”

Only if you assume that P(U|G) = 1.

You seem to take P(U) as 10^-50.  The movement from 10^-50 to 1 is not trivial, yet you offer no argument for it. On the face 10^-50 is the most that P(U|G) could be.  This is the number of physically possible universes.  God, if He exists, could have created any one (or none) of these.  Of course, as He is God, He’s in charge of physics and could have created other universes not included in the 10^50 possibilities envisaged by string theory, resulting in a P(U|G) far below 10^-50.﻿
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Putting flesh on Stathis Psillos’ skeleton
“Verisimilitude”, “truthlikeness”, what makes one false
statement more like or closer to the truth, is a bugger of a concept.  Since Popper’s first  (Popper, 1972) , and failed  (Miller, 1974)  (Tichý, 1974) attempt to elucidate
the concept many different a...﻿
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My new purchase
Jonathan Pearce at The Tippling Philosopher  draws attention to the ubiquity UKIP's message and that their views are couched in terms that make them appear acceptable. The National Front were openly fascist, racist and failed to appeal to anybody outside a ...﻿
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**
Transcendental
arguers for the existence of God are notorious for not actually putting forward
much of an argument. So I was delighted when a scholarly article by James Anderson and Greg Welty ( The Lord of
Non-Contradiction: An Argumentfor God from Logic )...﻿
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Review of "Cold-Case Christianity" by J. Warner Wallace
It was raining.   It
always rains in England.   I don’t know
why I live in the goddam country.   Maybe
I’m a sap. Maybe it’s because I’m English. I wasn’t going out in this weather, though.   I poured myself a slug of whisky (no ice) and
browsed for somethi...﻿
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Review of "Is God a Moral Monster" by Paul Copan
Well, is God a moral monster?  In looking at Copan’s answer to the question
I’ll draw a distinction between “factual” monstrosity and “moral” monstrosity. A factual statement does not automatically
coincide with a moral statement.  If
person A clenches his ...﻿