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Ron Villejo
Works at Ron Villejo Consulting
Attended Northwestern University - Feinberg School of Medicine
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10 Muhammad Ali quotes
1. “Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can reach down to the bottom of his soul and come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win when the match is even.”
2. “You lose nothing when fighting for a cause … In my mind the losers are those who don’t have a cause they care about.”
3. “The man with no imagination has no wings.”
4. “Inside of a ring or out, ain’t nothing wrong with going down. It’s staying down that’s wrong.”
5. “If my mind can conceive it, and my heart can believe it – then I can achieve it.”
6. “The best way to make your dreams come true is to wake up.”
7. “He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life”
8. “To be a great champion you must believe you are the best. If you’re not, pretend you are.”
9. “Champions aren’t made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them-a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have the skill, and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.”
10. “I hated every minute of training, but I said, ‘Don’t quit. Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a champion’.”
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Emergence of Spacetime --"Built by Quantum Entanglement"

http://bit.ly/1QaCcAR

"It was known that quantum entanglement is related to deep issues in the unification of general relativity and quantum mechanics, such as the black hole information paradox and the firewall paradox," says Hirosi Ooguri, a Principal Investigator at the University of Tokyo's Kavli IPMU. "Our paper sheds new light on the relation between quantum entanglement and the microscopic structure of spacetime by explicit calculations. The interface between quantum gravity and information science is becoming increasingly important for both fields."

A collaboration of physicists and a mathematician has made a significant step toward unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics by explaining how spacetime emerges from quantum entanglement in a more fundamental theory. The paper announcing the discovery by Ooguri, with Caltech mathematician Matilde Marcolli and graduate students Jennifer Lin and Bogdan Stoica, will be published in Physical Review Letters.

Physicists and mathematicians have long sought a Theory of Everything (ToE) that unifies general relativity and quantum mechanics. General relativity explains gravity and large-scale phenomena such as the dynamics of stars and galaxies in the universe, while quantum mechanics explains microscopic phenomena from the subatomic to molecular scales.
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(3) Grant Snider reflects on reading books, in relation to everyday life...
I made this manifesto for the Colombian newspaper El Espectador. Thanks to editor Daniel Jimenez Quiroz! Posters are available at my shop.
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"Bayes' Theorem is a plan for changing our beliefs in the face of evidence... all kinds of beliefs, all kinds of evidence... If there is not a Bayesian connection between evidence out in the real world and the beliefs that you hold in your head, then you don't have knowledge."
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Oh, man, what a brutal way to go! 

"[John] Nash and his wife, Alicia, were killed when the taxi they were riding in crashed on the New Jersey Turnpike Saturday afternoon, ejecting the couple."
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Bayes' Theorem

A and B are events.
P(A) and P(B) are the probabilities of A and B without regard to one other.
P(A | B), a conditional probability, is the probability of A given that B is true.
P(B | A), is the probability of B given that A is true.
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Cognitive & General PoM Discussion  - 
 
I am working to steep myself in Bayes' Theorem or Bayes' Rule.  I very much like the fact that it helps weigh our beliefs against perhaps a host of evidence that confirm (or disconfirm) our beliefs to varying degrees.  The principles underlying Bayes Theorem help sharpen our thinking and strengthen our reasoning.  In an optimal scenario - that is, if we are open and willing - we ought to modify our beliefs depending on the evidence we encounter.  In other words, we ought to be think logically or rationally about ourselves, people and the world around us. 

But the thing is, we as humans are not entirely logical or rational; we are also intuitive, subjective and instinctive.  For example, we may hold on to the belief that all teenagers are undisciplined and irresponsible, even though we meet some who are quite the opposite.  So the tenacity with which some may uphold their beliefs, despite evidence to contrary defies Bayes' Theorem.  This is the stuff of prejudice and discrimination. 

However, this example of defiance doesn't necessarily discredit the usefulness of Bayes' Theorem, in ways that Julia Galef talks about it.  Say, we have a friend who's prejudiced or discriminatory against teenagers, we might try to firmly and-or gently persuade him to think otherwise via Bayes' Theorem. 

Our tact may first draw on one of the Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, in particular: Seek first to understand, then to be understood.  Maybe he's faced an assault or trauma in relation to teenagers; maybe he's a father who weathered a terrible storm with his teenage children.  Using empathy - that is, the ability and willingness to walk in others' shoes or to sit in their seats, we might help our friend resolve such trauma or storm, so that perhaps he comes to see that despite all of what he experienced, not all teenagers are undisciplined or irresponsible. 

So: empathic understanding + Bayes Theorem underpin not only more effective thinking and reasoning, but also better understanding and relationships between people. 
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Just one little extra remark: Being an IT administrator, I knew bayesian rules already from antispam technology. Where mails are classified by content. I found this  very early unsatisfactory: too many false negatives and false positives and all mails are content processed. Bayesian rules appeared to me: "a temporary solution based on appearance while we are searching to understand better the underlying mechanisms of spammers."

The main issue with spam is that there are typical rogue spam sending servers and legimate mailservers that never send spam.
This is because mail is typical not sent by a client computer to another client computer, but should follow the RFC defined track: MUA, MTA, MDA, MUA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Message_transfer_agent, http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/E-mail.svg)

Spammers are usually rogue servers= infected clients that act as MTA.
These are very simple programs that try to deliver mail to the MDA with the least possible effort, least possible code: the code is usually, a lot, less than hunderd lines.
Where legitimate mailservers/MTA's are complex programs that communicate politely with other MTA's or MDA's and respect wait, delay and requeing requests, the spambots don't.

If you understand the above, and have read and understood the concerned RFC's (search for "MAIL, POP3, SMTP, MTA, MUA, MDA" here: http://www.rfc-editor.org/search) then you can make better anti-spam technology than "Bayesian filtering", greylisting may be one example, but the S25R technique of ASAMI Hideo, is a lot more sophisticated, and smartly detects upto 99% of SPAM, and rejects it lightly by rejecting the mailsending server based on it's "bad",  non RFC compliant behaviour  .
Admittedly the reported 13% false positive is high, but all of these are detected and logged and can be brought back to either bad implementations or software bugs of the sending server.

I tested this in a project, for your interest, here is a link to the (dutch) Latex document: http://goo.gl/MWrjZv

Conclusion: Bayesian is a good fast temporary solution to dynamically detect bad from good, while you are trying to understand the underlying mechanisms that cause the bad.
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In sports, the Nash Equilibrium basically means that both teams, or both players, are equally unpredictable in their game strategy.  So, in a way, each team or player must crack the Nash Equilibrium in order to win: that is, through experience, intuition and-or analytics discern underlying patterns in the other team or player, and exploit these patterns with an effective counter strategy.
John F. Nash Jr. is widely known as the subject of the Oscar-winning film “A Beautiful Mind,” but his contributions to the advancement of human knowledge are far greater. Nash paved the way for gam...
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(4) Books do breathe, you know...
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(1) We begin with a paean to books from Carl Sagan...
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"My beliefs are grayscale - and my confidence in them changes as I learn new things."  Well-said, by Julia Galef.

Her example about believing she is a good driver is instructive.  A subsequent road accident may require altering that belief, but then again it may not require altering that belief.   Galef's point is that we cannot stop at a superficial review of an incident or event vis-a-vis some preexisting belief.  Instead, we need to probe more deeply into such incident or event, and determine its cause.

If the accident were purely another driver's fault (e.g. misjudgment, carelessness), then she can viably maintain her belief that she is a good driver.  However, if the accident were entirely her own fault, she may still have good reason to hold to her belief.  For example, if she had a five-year history of driving with no accidents, a one-off accident now doesn't necessarily mean she is suddenly a bad driver.  But, to her point, that one-off accident may prompt even a minute decrease in her confidence in that belief.  Of course, repeated driving mistakes, resulting in frequent accidents may require significant alteration or dismissal of her belief: that is, she is no longer a good driver; she is a bad driver.

There is a name for beliefs that people hold as true, no matter the reality surrounding them, no matter a raft of opposing evidence: dogma.  Bayes' Theorem or Bayes' Rule is an antidote :)

+Gerallt G. Franke +bernd slemmen +Joost Ringoot 
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This is a very thoughtful, very beautiful quote from Pinsky.  I love his reference to the technology of poetry as a bodily, even sensuous experience.  But as he goes on, it is clear that poetry is also an emotional, cognitive and spiritual experience for him. 
 
"Poetry ... is an ancient art or technology: older than the computer, older than print, older than writing and indeed, though some may find this surprising, much older than prose. I presume that the technology of poetry, using the human body as its medium, evolved for specific uses; to hold things in memory, both within and beyond the individual life span; to achieve intensity and sensuous appeal; to express feelings and ideas rapidly and memorably. To share those feelings and ideas with companions, and also with the dead and with those to come after us."
- Robert Pinsky
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Education
  • Northwestern University - Feinberg School of Medicine
    PhD Clinical Psychology, 1986 - 1993
  • Northwestern University - Weinberg Colleage of Arts and Sciences
    Psychology, English, 1977 - 1981
Work
Occupation
Thinker-cum-Entrepreneur
Employment
  • Ron Villejo Consulting
    Managing Director, 2012 - present
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Ron Villejo's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
A Reader's Manifesto
www.incidentalcomics.com

I made this manifesto for the Colombian newspaper El Espectador. Thanks to editor Daniel Jimenez Quiroz! Posters are available at my shop.

Mind is a Garden
wherepoetrycrosses.blogspot.com

"Mind is a Garden" © Ron Villejo Facebook, Google+ and Twitter are replete with inspiring quotes and messages. On occasion I like to challen

Key and Peele’s Substitute Teacher character will be a movie
www.technologytell.com

A character from comedy sketch artists Key and Peele – a crusty substitute teacher from the inner city unleashed on a class of laconic white

Why We Write
www.incidentalcomics.com

You can order a poster of this comic at my new poster shop! Head over to incidentalcomics.storenvy.com and take a look around.

My Favorite Things
www.incidentalcomics.com

Happy autumn! It's the perfect season to carry a sketchbook. As always, posters are available at my shop.

Outside My Window
www.incidentalcomics.com

You can order this comic (and most any other Incidental Comic) in poster from - visit my poster shop for details.

141 Dead in Taliban Attack on Pakistan School
www.voanews.com

The siege of a school in Pakistan by Taliban militants has ended, leaving at least 141 people dead, most of them students. Islamist militant

Walter Isaacson: Where Innovation Comes From
online.wsj.com

As computer pioneer Alan Turing is honored in the film "The Imitation Game" starring Benedict Cumberbatch, we see now that today's biggest i

Why Walking Helps Us Think - The New Yorker
www.newyorker.com

Since at least the time of Greek philosophers, many writers have discovered a deep, intuitive connection between walking, thinking, and writ

“Let the mind be like the lake that reflects all... | zen empower
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“Let the mind be like the lake that reflects all of the clouds passing over it without any sticking to it." ~Zen proverb

“Where you are right now is where you are." ~Zen... | zen empower
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“Where you are right now is where you are." ~Zen proverb

“No great work has ever been accomplished without... | zen empower
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“No great work has ever been accomplished without going mad-that is, when expressed in modern terms, without breaking through the ordinary l

“When you try to stay on the surface of the water,... | zen empower
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“When you try to stay on the surface of the water, you sink; but when you try to sink, you float.” ~Zen proverb

“Clouds gone, the mountain appears." ~Zen proverb | zen empower
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“Clouds gone, the mountain appears." ~Zen proverb

Why Obama doesn't "have a strategy yet" in Syria
www.cbsnews.com

Going after ISIS within Syria's borders would be much more complicated than attempting to roll back or defeat the extremist group in Iraq

I bought a 2015 RAV4 XLE, and our overall experience was good. Our sales agent was new to the job, and needed help from several colleagues to answer our questions and resolve a couple of issues. While the whole process took a long time, these different staff kept things moving. At the end of the day, I felt we had a good deal on very nice new car!
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