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Ian R. Campbell
Works at Business Transition Counsel Inc.
Attended The University of Western Ontario - Richard Ivey School of Business
Lives in Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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What jobs drive long-term economic stability?
 
I have long believed, marked for me from the time I read New York Times writer Thomas Friedman’s book The World is Flat, that for any economic region to enjoy long term economic stability and growth it needs manufacturing jobs more than it needs service jobs. As Friedman said in his book (paraphrased): If we in America become an economy dependent on service industries, we will end up selling hamburgers to each other.
 
My belief in the importance of manufacturing jobs is very simple. Manufacturing employs – or has since the industrial revolution – a large number of people who live on Main Street, typically pays those people well, and reward typically rewards them with jobs that are meaningful to them and provide them with ego satisfaction.
 
Unfortunately, high paying service jobs increasingly require higher levels of education and training that only a comparatively small percentage of a given population typically has, and low paying service jobs (flipping hamburgers at McDonalds, or being a Greeter at Walmart) are unlikely to result in levels of consumer spending that promotes meaningful economic growth.
 
Stated differently, over time I do not believe increasing numbers of those low paying service jobs, combined with what I think will be both manufacturing and service job losses related to changes in technology, are going to enable consumer spending that in the end will support gross domestic product growth at sufficient levels to result in long-term economic growth that will effectively support ever increasing populations.
 
I sincerely hope I am wrong, but suggest that every business owner and their advisors when strategizing and planning the transition of their businesses – which they should be doing now and without procrastination – think hard about whether my views make sense to them. If my views on the importance of manufacturing and manufacturing jobs to an economy do make sense to them, I suggest they take that into account in their business transition decision-making.
 
You might want to read (1) Over at Project Syndicate: Making Do with More. Source: Washing Center for Equitable Growth – reading time 4 minutes, and (2)  Causes of Unemployment. Source: Economy Watch – reading time 2 minutes. Both are “thinking time longer” articles. #EconomicGrowth
Over at Project Syndicate: If we as a species can avoid nuclear war; curb those among us who are violent because they are God-maddened, state-maddened, or ethnicity-maddened; properly coordinate global action to reduce global warming from its current intolerable projected path to a tolerable one, adapt to the global warming that occurs, and distribute paying …
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Ian R. Campbell
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Discussion  - 
 
Filtered News Dispatch and Discussion Post Links – February 24, 2015
 
Filtered news headlines today include links to stories on (1) China’s recent capital outflows, (2) Financial markets current pricing, (3) German wage increase, (4) Government debt, (5) Greek debt and risk, (4) Precious metals price-fixing investigation , (5) Technology updates relevant to Business Transition and Valuation, (6) U.S. debt, and. (7) Janet Yellen’s testimony today and tomorrow. You can find today’s 13 news headlines at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq.  
You also might want to read a Discussion Post titled “Technology: business transition and valuation relevance” that discusses ongoing changes in capital equipment technology and their impact – reading time about 2 minutes, but thinking time a lot longer. You can find this Discussion Post at http://goo.gl/C7mYTS.
Owners sometimes ask us what the ideal transition is as if it’s a “one size fits all” proposition. The “ideal” transition, in our opinion, is the one that most closely matches the transitioning owners’ goals, both financial and non-financial, and vision.
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Filtered News Dispatch and Discussion Post Links – February 20, 2015
 
Filtered news headlines today include links to stories on (1) Canada inflation expectations, (2) Germany and the European Union, (3) Greece debt and risk, (4) Infrastructure requirements and issues (5) Institutional investing strategies, and (6) world oil prices. You can find today’s 7 news headlines at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq.  
You also might want to read two Discussion Posts I wrote this morning. The first discusses world infrastructure (roads, bridges, airports, etc.) in the face of existing government debt – reading time about 2 minutes at  http://goo.gl/dcxQsQ. The second discusses why in the end the world oil is highly likely to revert to a higher price – reading time about 1 minute at http://goo.gl/yaJ8tg. #oilprice #infrastructure  
With the longevity of hydraulic fracturing in question given its high cost and rapid depletion rates, oil prices can only go up in the coming decades
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Filtered News Dispatch and Commentary – February 18, 2015
 
Business owners and their transition advisors are advantaged in our economic and financial markets new normal if they are up-to-date on the latest economic, financial markets and business relevant news. To facilitate that, today you can find 9 filtered news headlines at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq.  
Filtered news headlines today include links to stories on (1) China home prices, (2) Currencies, (3) Graphene, (4) Greece, (5) India,  (6) M&A advisors, (7) Oil, and (8) U.S. banks.
 
You also might want to read an article published yesterday in The Telegraph (UK) titled “How central banks have lost control of the world” – reading time 2 minutes. This article:
 
1.              comes complete with an interesting world map that shows the extent of central bank interest rate reductions by country. You might want to review that map if only to confirm the extent to which we live in a “new interest rate normal” and may do that for some time
2.              suggests policymakers have used interest rates and digital money-printing tools in an attempt to avoid recessions and deflationary dynamics. I would have thought the positive way to say this same thing would be to say those policymakers have attempted to stimulate economic growth and improve what otherwise might be a “worse than we are currently experiencing economic environment”
3.              there is a potential divergence between U.S. policymakers and those in the rest of the world where the U.S. Federal Reserve professes to be serious about raising interest rates in an environment where some other countries are dropping interest rates – and claims that divergence is dangerous in the context of global liquidity
 
As I see things, the real 20,000 foot issue is whether central bank actions after 2008, including those currently ongoing, are “healing the economic wounds” created by the events leading up to September 2008 – or are merely covering them up with opaque band-aids while those wounds fester and worsen. That is my different way of questioning whether: central bank policies after September 2008 will in the end prove to be “long-term constructive” or “short-term kick the cans down the road” exercises?
 
I for one think the probabilities favour the now rusty and dented cans. #worldeconomy  
From engaging in 'competitive easing' to provoking international currency wars, have we finally reached the limit of what monetary policy can achieve? Click on the countries below to find out
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Filtered World News and Discussion – February 12, 2015
 
Business owners and their advisors are advantaged in our current economic and financial markets new normal if they are up-to-date. To facilitate that, today you can find 12 filtered economic, financial markets and business relevant news headlines at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq, a webpage you might want to bookmark and return to each morning. If you visit that webpage today and read only two of the linked articles, I suggest they be:
 
1.              “The Problem of Debt as We Reach Oil Limits” – estimated reading time 5 minutes
2.              “Fourth turning Shadow of Crisis of Debt, Civic Decay & Global Disorder” – estimated reading time 4 minutes
 
The first of these two articles, written by Gail Tverberg – an American and someone I consider to be a particularly good thinker and writer – discusses at a high level debt in a fiat currency environment. I suggest Ms. Tverberg’s article is well worth your time and thought. I also commend the second article to you. It is replete with charts and discussion I think compliments and reinforces Ms. Tverberg’s discussion and views. At the same time for me does a lot of “educating in one place”. If you are a business owner or an advisor to business owners and have not read these two articles I suggest you do that.
 
Other filtered news headlines today include links to stories on (1) business valuation multiples, (2) China – provincial GDP slowdown, (3) Greece and Ukraine updates, and (4) U.S. shale oil and oil supply update. #worldeconomy #debt  
(This is Part 3 of my series - A New Theory of Energy and the Economy. These are links to Part 1 and Part 2.) Many readers have asked me to explain debt. They also wonder, "Why can't we just cancel...
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Filtered World News and Discussion – February 10, 2015
 
If you are a business owner or an advisor to business owners I believe it will be increasingly to your advantage in our current economic and financial markets new normal to be as up to date on those things as you can be.
 
To supplement your other information and data feeds, today you can find fourteen filtered economic, financial markets and business relevant news headlines at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq. If you visit that webpage and read only two of the linked articles, I suggest they be:
 
1.              “Yellen Looking For Inflation In All The Wrong Places”
2.              “Sovereign Bonds Mispricing”
 
Those two articles speak to U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate and other central bank policies, and why one author believes sovereign debt is generally overpriced. Both are issues that are worth thinking about. Other filtered news headlines today include links to stories on Argentina’s default, China’s economy, Denmark in deflation, Greek sovereign debt, and U.S. jobs. #worldeconomy  
Yellen Looking For Inflation In All The Wrong Places :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
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Ian R. Campbell
owner

Discussion  - 
 
Negative interest rates – significance?

Business owners and advisors to business owners might want to read a Discussion Post titled “Negative interest rates – significance?” that discusses yesterday’s German government 5 year negative interest bond issue – reading time about 3 minutes – at http://goo.gl/t3NsV7.  
 
You might also want to review six filtered news headlines and perhaps some of the linked articles posted today. Subject areas are Business Transition News, Economic News, and Resources News. Visit http://goo.gl/hbpHliq.
Yesterday Germany sold five-year bonds at negative yields, while five-year government bonds of Austria, Finland and the Netherlands are said to be trading at negative yields. For me, this raises a number of questions (and readers may have many more): Is this an indicator that a recessionary environment currently prevails in many Eurozone countries, where …
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Ian R. Campbell
owner

Discussion  - 
 
Filtered News Dispatch and Discussion Post Links – February 21, 2015
 
Filtered news headlines today include links to stories on (1) China’s declining inflation, (2) Employment’s impact on economic growth, (3) Greece debt and risk, (4) Russian debt, (5) U.S. debt, and (6) Yesterday’s financial markets. You can find today’s 8 news headlines at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq.  
You also might want to read two Discussion Posts I wrote this morning. The first titled “Financial markets – are they to be trusted?” discusses the current financial markets – reading time about 2 minutes. The second titled “Greek debt – what good is postponement?” discusses the contingent agreement on Greek debt announced yesterday – reading time about 1 minute. You can find both discussion posts at www.50Hurdles.com.
Brussels (AFP) - Europe granted Greece a crucial four-month extension to its massive debt bailout, offering precious breathing space, but at the cost of huge concessions including a commitment to spell out reforms within two days.
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Filtered News Dispatch and Commentary – February 19, 2015
 
Filtered news headlines today include links to stories on (1) Federal Reserve latest thinking, (2) Eurozone deflation threat, (3) Greece debt and risk, (4) U.S. oil inventories. You can find today’s 8 filtered news headlines at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq.  
You also might want to read a Discussion Post I wrote this morning that discusses yesterday’s U.S. Federal Reserve minutes, and possible consequences of Greece leaving the Eurozone. Read that Discussion Post at http://goo.gl/WMsQdp. #Eurozone #Greece
Business Succession, Transition, Valuation and Economic Resources for business owners and their advisors. Get Business Succession help from an expert.
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Ian R. Campbell
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Discussion  - 
 
News Dispatch – February 13, 2015
 
Business owners and their transition advisors are advantaged in our economic and financial markets new normal if they are up-to-date on the latest economic, financial markets and business relevant news. To facilitate that, today you can find 11 filtered news headlines at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq. If you visit that webpage today and read only two of today’s linked articles, I suggest they be:
 
1.              “The Global Economy’s Chinese Headwinds” – estimated reading time 3 minutes
2.              “Here’s how a $50 drop in oil prices affects every country in the world” – estimated reading time 3 minutes
 
The first of these two articles, written by Adair Turner – former member of the UK’s Financial Policy Committee and Senior Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking (http://ineteconomics.org/) – discusses China’s economy, concluding:
 
“China may well be able to meet the challenge ahead. But, as the investment-led phase of its development ends, a significant growth slowdown is certain – and will inevitably intensify deflationary forces in the world economy.”
 
If Mr. Turner proves to be right I think that is almost certain to be a big deal.
 
The second article shows a coloured world map that purports to show the revenue impact in 2015 should the current oil price drop of about US$50 remain unchanged, and what this would mean to the revenues this year of each world country. I have not independently verified the information shown, but think it worth reviewing where – as I read the map – the United States and many other countries are shown as being less impacted than Canada.
 
Other filtered news headlines today include links to stories on (1) German Q4 growth, (2) an update on Greek debt, (3) UK deflationary pressures, and (4) U.S. west coast seaport issues. #worldeconomy  
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Filtered World News and Discussion – February 11, 2015
 
Business owners and their advisors are advantaged in our current economic and financial markets new normal if they are up-to-date. To facilitate that, today you can find eight filtered economic, financial markets and business relevant news headlines at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq, a webpage you might want to bookmark and return to each morning. If you visit that webpage today and read only two of the linked articles, I suggest they be:
 
1.              “Canada’s Labour Market Could Get Worse Before It Gets Better” – estimated reading time 2 minutes
2.              “The Canadian housing market will implode in dramatic fashion: 5 charts highlighting the inevitable pop to Canada’s real estate boom” – estimated reading time 3 minutes
 
The first of these two articles summarizes the views of Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins. The second shows what may be important charts on Canada’s (1) household debt/income compared to the United States, (2) Canadian bank asset growth by source, (3) dependence on construction versus the United States, (4) Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver median house prices compared with 15 other world cities, and (5) current home prices versus historic averages for 20 countries – including Canada, found at the top of the list .
 
Other filtered news headlines today include links to stories on (1) the current European Union/Russia meeting, (2) the current G20 meeting, (3) China – deflation risk and centralizing economic policies, (4) opinions on oil price direction, and (5) Mexico and oil prices. #worldeconomy  
The Canadian housing market is deep into bubble territory.  We all know that bubbles can go on for longer than most people think.  But with the crash in oil prices and people fully believing their own hype, the market is setup for a big fall from grace.  It is interesting how most from the
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Ian R. Campbell
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Discussion  - 
 
Filtered World News and Discussion – February 9, 2015
 
An understanding of economics, the financial markets and business valuation are fundamental underpinnings to business transition success.
 
To aid in that understanding, each day we filter and summarize 5 – 20 of over 400 economic, financial markets, business valuation and transition news headlines from over 75 world sources. You can read those daily headlines in less than 3 minutes. Reading the linked articles takes a little longer.
 
Today’s Ten Filtered News Headlines include links to stories on Business Value drivers, China’s economy, Deflation, Greece, Oil, the U.S. Federal Reserve and World Currencies. You can find them at http://goo.gl/hbpHlq.  
You can also find our Discussion Post of The Day – and Add Your Comments – at http://goo.gl/6E6ehp. Today’s Discussion Post is titled Second credit crisis – on the brink?
Business Succession, Transition, Valuation and Economic Resources for business owners and their advisors. Get Business Succession help from an expert.
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In his circles
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SidePix's profile photo
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Work
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Business Transition and Valuation Author and Consultant
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My advice has been sought in business valuation and/or transition matters by hundreds of Canadian companies, their shareholders and their advisers for 45 years and counting.
Employment
  • Business Transition Counsel Inc.
    President, 1976 - present
    I provide "expert consultant" advice to companies, their shareholders and their advisers on both business transition and business valuation matters. I also speak to seminar and other groups on those two topics.
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Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Business Transition and Valuation Author and Consultant
Introduction
In 1976 founded Toronto based Campbell Valuation Partners Limited, a business valuation consultancy that provides business valuation advisory advice, principally in Canada. Retired from Campbell Valuation Partners Limited December 31, 2013.

In mid-2005 concluded that there was going to be a serious U.S. economic downturn, and began to write an economic and resources blog.

From 2007 to April 2013 developed StockResearchPortal.com, a research and due diligence website focused on the Mining and Oil & Gas stocks. The website is currently off-line.

In 2012 created The Economic Straight Talk Newsletter, a subscription newsletter focused on the world economic and on resources. The www.EconomicStraightTalk.com website and Newsletter in combination provide readers with daily filtered economic and resources news from over 150 world news sources, and with contextual commentaries on what are viewed as particularly relevant news stories.

In 2014 authored 50Hurdles: Business Transition Simplified, a book that focuses on family business transition differently than does most business transition (more commonly called succession) literature. Concurrently will introduce www.BusinessTranstionCounsel.com to the internet, a website offers information relevant to family business owners and owners of non-family private companies, and The Business Transition Counsel Newsletter.

Authored:

50 Hurdles: Business Transition Simplified, 2014, Transitus Publishing Inc., Toronto.

The Valuation of Business Interests, 2001, The Canadian Institute of Chartered Professional Accountants, Toronto

The Valuation and Pricing of Privately-Held Business Interests, 1990, The Canadian Institute of Chartered Professional Accountants, Toronto

The Principles and Practice of Business Valuation, 1975, Richard DeBoo Limited (now Thomson Reuters-Carswell), Toronto

Specialties:

Business Transition
Business Valuation
Business Transition and Business Valuation Commentary
Economic Research and Commentary
Bragging rights
I learned early on that stories of failure are perceived to be funnier than are stories of success.
Education
  • The University of Western Ontario - Richard Ivey School of Business
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