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IMF Survey Magazine

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The International Monetary Fund is increasing demands for Greek debt relief, setting up another potential standoff with creditors over the country’s bailout, and threatening to create more political and economic uncertainty at an already tumultuous time for Europe. This I.M.F.’s position opens the next act in the long-running Greek debt crisis, casting the fund against Germany and many of the other eurozone creditors. The fund is playing the role of the financial police, adamant that Greece will never return to growth if its debt burden is not sustainable. And Germany is the political pragmatist, leaning on Greece to stick with its austerity commitments lest it set a bad precedent for future bailouts and provoke unrest at home.
The fund’s position is counter to Germany’s on the wisdom and future of austerity commitments, potentially setting up a conflict with creditors.
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IMF Survey Magazine

emerging markets  - 
 
 
Because of its sheer size and integration into the global economy, China’s transition will certainly affect those around it. China is now the top trading partner of most major economies in the region, particularly in East Asia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). During 2000–15, exports to China increased dramatically from 3 percent to 9 percent of world exports and from 9 percent to 22 percent of Asian exports. According to IMF staff calculations, a 1 percentage point change in China’s real GDP growth is estimated to affect the real GDP growth of the median Asian economy by 0.15–0.30 of a percentage point.
By Serkan Arslanalp, Thomas Helbling, Jaewoo Lee, and Koshy Mathai Version in 中文 (Chinese) China’s economy leaves nobody indifferent. The world is watching closely as the second largest economy in…
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IMF Survey Magazine

economic policy  - 
 
 
By vigorously reducing corruption, countries can improve economic stability and boost growth and development, according to a new IMF staff paper. Public corruption, defined as an abuse of public office for private gain, afflicts economies at all stages of development. Governments around the world face the challenge of addressing citizens’ increased concerns over high corruption as evidenced by recent scandals in many countries. “While the direct economic costs of corruption are well known, the indirect costs may be even more substantial and debilitating, leading to low growth and greater income inequality. Corruption also has a broader corrosive impact on society. It undermines trust in government and erodes the ethical standards of private citizens,” said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.
By vigorously reducing corruption, countries can improve economic stability and boost growth and development, according to a new IMF staff paper.
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IMF Survey Magazine

economic trends  - 
 
 
Growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region remains subdued owing to persistently low oil prices and deepening regional conflicts, said the IMF in its latest regional assessment. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook Update for the Middle East and Central Asia, released on April 25, projects that growth this year will be about 3 percent. Although slightly higher than in 2015 (see table), the modest pick-up largely reflects increased oil production in Iraq and post-sanctions Iran. Growth in most other oil exporters, however, is projected to slow further this year as they tighten public spending in response to lower oil prices. The latest report has downgraded 2016’s growth projections in almost all MENAP oil exporters relative to the projections made last October. Economic recovery among MENAP oil importers, meanwhile, remains fragile and uneven. Growth is projected to slow to 3.5 percent in 2016 because of adverse spillovers from slowing growth in oil-exporting neighbors and intensifying regional conflicts.
Growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region remains subdued owing to low oil prices and deepening regional conflicts, said the IMF in its latest regional assessment.
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IMF Survey Magazine

economic trends  - 
 
 
As the global recovery continues to struggle to gain its footing, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean has been marked down further and is likely to contract for the second consecutive year in 2016, the IMF said. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere, released on April 27 in Mexico City, projects that the region is set to contract by 0.5 percent in 2016—marking two consecutive years of negative growth for the first time since the Latin American debt crisis of 1982–83. This rate, however, masks the fact that many countries continue to grow, modestly but surely, whereas a small number of economies—representing about half of the region’s economy—face recession largely as a result of domestic factors.
The deceleration in activity reflects weak external demand, further declines in commodity prices, volatile financial conditions, and for some important domestic imbalances and rigidities, the report said. At the same time, many countries have continued to experience large exchange rate depreciations, mainly as a result of deteriorating terms of trade and external demand. For 2017, the IMF expects the region to bounce back to 1.5 percent growth.
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IMF Survey Magazine

economic trends  - 
 
 
After a prolonged period of strong economic growth, sub-Saharan Africa is set to experience a second difficult year as the region is hit by multiple shocks, the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. The steep decline in commodity prices and tighter financing conditions have put many large economies under severe strain, and the new report calls for a stronger policy response to counter the effect of these shocks and secure the region’s growth potential.The report shows growth fell to 3½ percent in 2015, the lowest level in 15 years. Growth this year is expected to slow further to 3 percent, well below the 6 percent average over the last decade, and barely above population growth.
After a prolonged period of strong economic growth, sub-Saharan Africa is set to experience a second difficult year as the region is hit by multiple shocks, the IMF said in its latest <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/afr/eng/sreo1015.htm">Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa</a><i>.</i>
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IMF Survey Magazine

emerging markets  - 
 
The expansion of India’s exports of services between 1990 and 2013 has been nothing short of spectacular, putting India on a par with the world’s high-income economies in terms of service-product sophistication and as a share of total exports. This has created unique opportunities for continued growth. By contrast, when it comes to exports of manufactured goods, India has lagged behind its emerging-markets peers, both in quality and as a percentage of the total export basket, leaving substantial room for improvement.
By Rahul Anand, Kalpana Kochhar, and Saurabh Mishra The expansion of India’s exports of services between 1990 and 2013 has been nothing short of spectacular, putting India on a par with the world’s…
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IMF Survey Magazine

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Because of its sheer size and integration into the global economy, China’s transition will certainly affect those around it. China is now the top trading partner of most major economies in the region, particularly in East Asia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). During 2000–15, exports to China increased dramatically from 3 percent to 9 percent of world exports and from 9 percent to 22 percent of Asian exports. According to IMF staff calculations, a 1 percentage point change in China’s real GDP growth is estimated to affect the real GDP growth of the median Asian economy by 0.15–0.30 of a percentage point.
By Serkan Arslanalp, Thomas Helbling, Jaewoo Lee, and Koshy Mathai Version in 中文 (Chinese) China’s economy leaves nobody indifferent. The world is watching closely as the second largest economy in…
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IMF Survey Magazine

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By vigorously reducing corruption, countries can improve economic stability and boost growth and development, according to a new IMF staff paper. Public corruption, defined as an abuse of public office for private gain, afflicts economies at all stages of development. Governments around the world face the challenge of addressing citizens’ increased concerns over high corruption as evidenced by recent scandals in many countries. “While the direct economic costs of corruption are well known, the indirect costs may be even more substantial and debilitating, leading to low growth and greater income inequality. Corruption also has a broader corrosive impact on society. It undermines trust in government and erodes the ethical standards of private citizens,” said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.
By vigorously reducing corruption, countries can improve economic stability and boost growth and development, according to a new IMF staff paper.
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IMF Survey Magazine

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Growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region remains subdued owing to persistently low oil prices and deepening regional conflicts, said the IMF in its latest regional assessment. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook Update for the Middle East and Central Asia, released on April 25, projects that growth this year will be about 3 percent. Although slightly higher than in 2015 (see table), the modest pick-up largely reflects increased oil production in Iraq and post-sanctions Iran. Growth in most other oil exporters, however, is projected to slow further this year as they tighten public spending in response to lower oil prices. The latest report has downgraded 2016’s growth projections in almost all MENAP oil exporters relative to the projections made last October. Economic recovery among MENAP oil importers, meanwhile, remains fragile and uneven. Growth is projected to slow to 3.5 percent in 2016 because of adverse spillovers from slowing growth in oil-exporting neighbors and intensifying regional conflicts.
Growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region remains subdued owing to low oil prices and deepening regional conflicts, said the IMF in its latest regional assessment.
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IMF Survey Magazine

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As the global recovery continues to struggle to gain its footing, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean has been marked down further and is likely to contract for the second consecutive year in 2016, the IMF said. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere, released on April 27 in Mexico City, projects that the region is set to contract by 0.5 percent in 2016—marking two consecutive years of negative growth for the first time since the Latin American debt crisis of 1982–83. This rate, however, masks the fact that many countries continue to grow, modestly but surely, whereas a small number of economies—representing about half of the region’s economy—face recession largely as a result of domestic factors.
The deceleration in activity reflects weak external demand, further declines in commodity prices, volatile financial conditions, and for some important domestic imbalances and rigidities, the report said. At the same time, many countries have continued to experience large exchange rate depreciations, mainly as a result of deteriorating terms of trade and external demand. For 2017, the IMF expects the region to bounce back to 1.5 percent growth.
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IMF Survey Magazine

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After a prolonged period of strong economic growth, sub-Saharan Africa is set to experience a second difficult year as the region is hit by multiple shocks, the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. The steep decline in commodity prices and tighter financing conditions have put many large economies under severe strain, and the new report calls for a stronger policy response to counter the effect of these shocks and secure the region’s growth potential.The report shows growth fell to 3½ percent in 2015, the lowest level in 15 years. Growth this year is expected to slow further to 3 percent, well below the 6 percent average over the last decade, and barely above population growth.
After a prolonged period of strong economic growth, sub-Saharan Africa is set to experience a second difficult year as the region is hit by multiple shocks, the IMF said in its latest <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/afr/eng/sreo1015.htm">Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa</a><i>.</i>
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IMF Survey - the news magazine of the International Monetary Fund -- global economic and financial analysis
Introduction
IMF Survey is an online magazine carrying news, views, and analysis from the International Monetary Fund. Intended for a broad audience, the IMF Survey features insight into Fund operations, policy analyses, country developments, globalization, interviews with leading economists, and current issues in international finance. Selected articles from the online Survey are also published on the IMF’s Arabic, Chinese, French, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish websites.
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