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Stefan Momma
Works at IBM Germany R+D
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Stefan Momma

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Winners and Losers of the day (early LSE trading).
Gold and silver mines and Rolls Royce among the top winners.

No surprise there, who is going to make a profit from this mess.
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Stefan Momma

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Crossing the limits of what can be cosplayed, I guess :-)
Way cool.
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Wow.
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I don't like posting about politics.  I prefer math.  Math is the beautiful game of truth.  Politics is the ugly game of lies. 

But I woke up in the middle of the night and realized that if I didn't say the obvious, I might regret it:

We've got to fight Trump with everything we've got.

The US is dangerously close to electing a buffoon and would-be dictator: our very own Berlusconi, our very own Putin.  Elizabeth Warren put it clearly:

Unfortunately, if you’ve been watching the presidential race, you know that we need to stand up now more than ever. Just yesterday, it came out that Donald Trump had said back in 2007 that he was “excited” for the real estate market to crash because, quote, “I’ve always made more money in bad markets than in good markets.” That’s right. The rest of us were horrified by the 2008 financial crisis, by what happened to the millions of families like Mr. Estrada’s that were forced out of their homes. But Donald Trump was drooling over the idea of a housing meltdown – because it meant he could buy up a bunch more property on the cheap.

What kind of a man does that? Root for people to get thrown out on the street? Root for people to lose their jobs? Root for people to lose their pensions? Root for two little girls in Clark County, Nevada, to end up living in a van? What kind of a man does that? I’ll tell you exactly what kind—a man who cares about no one but himself. A small, insecure moneygrubber who doesn’t care who gets hurt, so long as he makes some money off it. What kind of man does that? A man who will NEVER be President of the United States.

Sometimes Trump claims he is tough on Wall Street – tough on the guys who cheated people like Mr. Estrada. I’m sure you’ve heard him say that. But now he’s singing a very different song. Last week, he said that the new Dodd-Frank financial regulations have, and I’m quoting here, “made it impossible for bankers to function” and he will put out a new plan soon that “will be close to dismantling Dodd-Frank.” Donald Trump is worried about helping poor little Wall Street? Let me find the world’s smallest violin to play a sad, sad song.

Can Donald Trump even name three things that Dodd-Frank does? Seriously, someone ask him. But this much he should know: If he’s so tough on Wall Street, he should be cheering on Dodd-Frank’s capital and leverage requirements that have made big banks less likely to fail. If he’s so tough on Wall Street, he should be cheering on Dodd-Frank’s living wills process, which is helping push big banks to become safer. If he’s so tough on Wall Street, he should be cheering on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which has already returned over $11 billion to families who were cheated.

He SHOULD be, but he’s not. Now that he’s sewn up the Republican nomination, Donald Trump is dropping the pretense. Now he’s kissing the fannies of poor, misunderstood Wall Street bankers. But the American people are a whole lot smarter than Donald Trump thinks they are. The American people are NOT looking for a bait and switch. They are NOT looking for a man so desperate for power he will say and do anything to get elected. Take the hint, Donald: the time for letting big banks call all the shots in Washington is coming to an end.

And I want to make just one last point about Donald Trump that won’t fit into a Twitter war. One last point that sums up what Donald Trump is all about – his taxes.

We don’t know what Trump pays in taxes because he is the first Presidential nominee in 40 years to refuse to disclose his tax returns. Maybe he’s just a lousy businessman who doesn’t want you to find out that he’s worth a lot less money than he claims.

But we know one thing: the last time his taxes were made public, Donald Trump paid nothing—zero. Zero taxes before, and for all we know he’s paying zero taxes today. And he’s proud of it. Two weeks ago he said he’s more than happy to dodge taxes because he doesn’t want to throw his money “down the drain.”

Trump likes being a billionaire, and doesn’t think the rules that apply to everyone else should apply to him. But let’s be clear: Donald Trump didn’t get rich on his own. His businesses rely on the roads and bridges the rest of us paid for. His businesses rely on workers the rest of us paid to educate and on police-forces and fire fighters who protect all of us and the rest of us pay to support. Donald Trump and his businesses are protected by a world-class military that defends us abroad and keeps us safe at home and that the rest of us pay to support. When anyone builds something terrific, they should get to keep a big hunk of it. But they should also pay a fair share forward so the next kid and the next kid and the next kid who come along gets their chance to build something too. That’s how we build a future that works for everyone.

And that goes double for Donald Trump, because he didn’t even get rich by building something terrific. He inherited a fortune from his father, and kept it going by scamming people, declaring bankruptcy, and skipping out on what he owed.

Nurses, teachers, and dockworkers pay their fair share for all the services that keep Trump’s businesses going. Programmers and engineers and small business owners pay their fair share to support our military who show courage and sacrifice every single day. Donald Trump thinks supporting them is throwing money “down the drain.”

I say we just throw Donald Trump down the drain.

Let’s face it: Donald Trump cares about exactly one thing – Donald Trump. It’s time for some accountability because these statements disqualify Donald Trump from ever becoming President. The free ride is over.

If you have people reading your posts who can vote in the US elections, please reshare this.    I am going to disable comments because I don't see a need for discussion.  +Elizabeth Hahn gets the last word.
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... Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.
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That a G+ profile photo with a grey beard triggers more spam regarding walk-in bathtubs than, say, bungee jumping, I have somewhat gotten used to.
I draw a line at the Subject line "Ease the burden on your loved ones by planning ahead" sent by ...

"Cremation Costs"
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Eine Zugleitung, die es nachts um 11 nicht fertig bringt, eine Anschluss-S-Bahn eine Minute warten zu lassen, gehört fristlos entlassen. +deutsche bahn​
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"I'm only doing this until I can get a gig in a jazz band".
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Have him in circles
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Stefan Momma

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What the sleep-challenged need is not sheer boredom but the scantest grasp of mild amusement, from something that is distracting without being stimulating.
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Ah. ja.
"$CATERER ist auch Mitglied der Charta der Vielfalt und bietet zu unserer Diversity-Veranstaltung einen Multikulti-Smoothie an."
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Helpful error messages #974
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} else {
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BITTE TEILEN: „Gib meinem Sohn eine Chance zu leben!“
Jetzt Lebensretter werden: dkms.de/fb-registrierung
„Vor 5 Tagen feierte mein kleiner Spatz seinen 1. Geburtstag! Doch so haben wir uns diesen Tag nicht vorgestellt. Leider musste ‪#‎Alessio‬ diesen Tag gemeinsam mit uns im Krankenhaus verbringen. Es liegen bereits harte Wochen hinter uns. Am Anfange dachten wir, es wäre nur eine Erkältung - heute steht fest, mein Sohn leidet an einem schweren Gendefekt und seine einzige Überlebenschance ist eine ‪#‎Stammzelltransplantation‬.

Es ist einfach nur unfair und ich kann meine Gefühle einfach nicht in Worte fassen. Das kleine Würmchen ist so unschuldig und versteht im Grunde gar nicht, was vor sich geht. Doch er ist tapfer und gemeinsam mit meiner Familie werden wir alles daran setzen, dass Alessio eine Chance auf sein Leben bekommt. Er soll noch viele Geburtstage feiern und mit seinem Lächeln seine Familie verzaubern.
Bisher konnte weltweit leider noch kein passender Stammzellspender für Alessio gefunden werden. Deswegen bitten wir alle Menschen, die noch nicht registriert sind, dies jetzt zu tun.

Bestelle online unter www.dkms.de/fb-registrierung das Registrierungsset oder komm am 19. Juni zur Registrierungsaktion am rewirpowerStadion in ‪#‎Bochum‬.

Ich weiß, dass sehr viele Menschen hier bereits als Stammzellspender registriert sind, aber ich hoffe, dass Ihr noch viele Eurer Freunde und Familie überzeugen könnt, potenzielle Lebensretter zu werden.

Ihr gebt uns damit eine Hoffnung!

Vielen Dank für Eure Zeit!

Alessios Mama“
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World, brace yourself for a very rough ride ahead.
All illusions of "it won't be that bad in the end" should be abandoned now.
What +Yonatan Zunger doesn't even mention are all the other areas where Mr Trump's political incompetence are going to hurt very badly, like, for example, his climate change denial (yes, Cruz or any other GOP candidate wasn't any better here).
 
As of today, the second seal has been broken and a rider on a red horse has come forth Donald Trump is essentially the guaranteed Republican nominee for president. Let me give some predictions of what's going to happen next:

(1) People will start to argue harder and harder that Trump isn't really that bad, and he doesn't actually mean all the things that he says. Even while you'll never hear this from his campaign, it'll be a major theme among commentators, especially those tied to the Republican establishment. 

The main thing driving this will be cognitive dissonance: if you believed that the American public had just nominated a not-particularly-crypto-Nazi, then you would have to conclude that the people around you are either evil or fools, and that's not something nice to think about. But if he's not really that bad, then it's OK. The second thing driving this will be the underlying urge of many disaffected (white, working or middle class) people to support him and the things he actually says; if you've got a narrative where it's not really that bad, it's fine to vote for this, then you can feel more comfortable considering it. And the third thing (affecting mostly professional politicians and media heads) will be simple professional party loyalty; the cost of defection away from a nominated candidate, in terms of career and so on, is just too high.

(2) You will hear a strong campaign from the Republican establishment (not Trump) that Clinton is the Devil and must be beaten. They won't be able to put together a clear story of why; to be honest, almost nobody ever has been able to. It's become so reflexive to see her this way that people have forgotten where it started. (That's not to say that Clinton isn't deeply flawed, but none of those flaws have anything to do with the weird conspiracy theories that will be circulating) 

This is mostly a way for the people in the establishment, the ones with the most dissonance to deal with, to focus themselves on saying "not Clinton" so they don't have to spend too much time saying "yes Trump."

It's going to be an incredibly nasty campaign, but that shouldn't surprise anyone.

(Yes, Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee. I know Sanderistas can come up with arguments until the cows come home about how it's still perfectly statistically possible for him to win 64% of the remaining pledged delegates or somehow convince all the superdelegates to join him but... no. There is no way that actually works. Sanders gets to shift the party platform but he has no serious chance of being the nominee)


And if, God forbid, Trump were to be elected? I suspect that we would find that he is quite an honest man after all, at least insofar as he has no incentive to lie. I suspect that his promises about immigrants will quickly become a priority for him, with a certain amount of reality gating. Things we'd actually see:

(1) Punitive taxes and/or seizure of remittances abroad. This would cause massive economic disruptions all over the world (about $125B per year, most of it going to poor communities) and would probably ultimately be moderated in some way, but not before causing tremendous pain and chaos.

(2) Laws demanding strong proof of citizenship to work, and enforcing severe penalties against employers who violate them. These would cause a different kind of chaos, because a good quarter of citizens don't actually have such strong proof. Presumably offices would be set up to help people get that, and deployment of the law would be staged -- but that assistance would be sharply canted towards white communities. The intent, and effect, of the law would be to cause mass unemployment among Latino and Black communities. This would, indeed, cause many to flee the country, but even more to be dropped into extremely dire straits. I have no idea how this would play out.

(3) Laws enforcing Draconian penalties against anyone who helps people without knowing their immigration status. This would run into actual trouble for Trump once it started to affect better-organized churches; the Vatican may actually end up being a major counterforce, and this might have long-term consequences.

(4) Laws restricting employment of legal immigrants in various ways. Not in service industries, but in places where a demonstration of nativism will be politically useful. This will often be used as a negotiating tactic against businesses.

(5) Actual wall-building might start in a symbolic fashion, but the absurd logistics of it would prevent anything other than a flashy display.

Of course, none of this even starts to deal with his plans to institute trade wars with both China and Mexico (two of our three largest trading partners), or the effects that would happen when the leaders of politically savvy rival countries (e.g., China) realize that he can easily be goaded into foolish moves. Or what might happen if someone else (e.g., Kim Jong Un) tried to rattle sabers; I doubt that he has any deep understanding of just why the US hasn't tried to blow up North Korea in the past. (Answer: we could do it, but in the process South Korea would be turned into rubble, and Japan would probably lose a city or two. And it might escalate into a full regional war.)

So even though I anticipate several months of people telling me how he really isn't that bad, and of the curious experience of seeing a politician's supporters get exasperated and angry ("you're not repeating that old lie again!") when I suggest that their candidate might be honest, I don't think that just because he's the nominee, he's suddenly going to change his white sheets stripes.
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Well, what we saw yesterday is that the worst of all possible US presidents has given up. A fundamental Christian would have caused a massive escalation with the Muslim world. I find it strange that Trump received so much public bashing (deservedly) but Cruz didn't (at least from what I've seen). I found his positions I could read on Wikipedia somewhere between dumb, wrong, and despicable.

The last thing I long for is a President Trump, but before yesterday the last thing I wanted was a President Cruz, so isn't the change actually good?

(Go Bernie!)
(desperate)
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Die Abweichung von starren Regeln ist das Salz in der Suppe der Sprache. 
Man kann aber auch Spaß haben, wenn man sie mal stur anwendet.
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"Wer existiert, ist existent. Analog: Wer am Verlieren ist, ist verlent. Und umgekehrt: Wem blümerant ist, dem blümeriert."
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Verben auf -ieren bringen aus dem Lateinischen eine Vielzahl von Möglichkeiten mit, daraus Nomina zu machen. Längst sind noch nicht alle ausgeschöpft, und wir sind angetreten, das zu ändern. Da ist zum Beispiel das „Partizip I“ auf -ant bzw. -ent: Wer existiert, ist existent.
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Großartig! Plausage!
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  • IBM Germany R+D
    1993 - present
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