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Joe Macias
Attended Northwest College
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Joe Macias

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I haven't touched Google+ in a loooooong time. Who of my friends are still active here? And, how are you finding to best use G+ now that it's been around a little while and the sheen has worn off?
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Jeremy Holmes's profile photoJoe Macias's profile photoEric Judd's profile photo
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groovy, thanks!
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Joe Macias

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Is there a way to permanently hide some people or circles from your main stream? Way too much noise here by a small number of people who I want to follow, but don't want to see 10 updates every 1/2 hour from.
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Joe Macias's profile photoEric Judd's profile photoKaren Cameron's profile photo
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This is a great tip!  I will definitely be doing this!
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Joe Macias

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The creativity of this is worth 3 min of your time...
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Joe Macias

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Meeting my family down at Full Throttle Bottles to drink, then over to Stellar Pizza to soak it up. Doesn't get much better than that!
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A nice little explanation on how and why FB and Twitter have a serious competitor on their hands with G+
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Yes! Opened up Google+ this morning to find a WEALTH of friends signed up here. This platform is starting to get valuable to me. Keep inviting people, my goal is to replace FB and Twitter!
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Cool. Thanks!
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Joe Macias

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Are we living in a post-Facebook world?
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Joe Macias's profile photoTri Nguyen's profile photoErik Bennett's profile photo
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I also think Google has a deeper imbedded identity in our culture. People trust and prefer google.
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Joe Macias

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I need a domain registrar that is reliable & inexpensive, that I can transfer domain names to from GoDaddy. Any suggestions?
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There are hundreds. Literally hundreds of competitors to GoDaddy. The registrar space is extremely packed. You too can be one. You can buy bulk registration capability from InterNIC, or get reseller status through joker.com or tucows pretty easily.
I'm honestly not sure why everyone always uses Go Daddy. Service is horrible, policies are extremely unfriendly and there is lots of better options.
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Joe Macias

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If you haven't heard this story yet, Rachel donated her 9th birthday to raise money for clean water projects in developing countries. Her goal was $300. Last week Rachel tragically died in a car accident. However, the story has been getting lots of press, and people are donating to her clean water campaign in her honor. The total is currently up to $439,000! Click the link and go participate!

http://mycharitywater.org/rachels9thbirthday
charity: water. WHY WATER? PROJECTS; GET INVOLVED; PHOTOS+MEDIA; ABOUT US; EVENTS. Samantha. Rachel's 9th Birthday Wish. PAGE URL: SAMANTHA'S PROGRESS. 0%; 20%; 40%; 60%; 80%; 100%. $300; CAMP...
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$857,000+ today
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Joe Macias

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;)
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Joe Macias

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Paul Allen originally shared:
 
Google+ To Pass 10,000,000 Users Tomorrow (on 7/12)

As I promised on Saturday night, I have finished updating my Google+ membership model with new data and re-estimated the Google+ user base.

My surname-based analysis shows that the number of Google+ users worldwide reached 7.3 million yesterday (July 10) – up from 1.7 million users on July 4th. That is a 350% increase in six days. The userbase is growing so quickly that it is challenging for me to keep up, since the number of users of any given surname (even the rare ones I am tracking) seems to be climbing every day.

More impressive than last week's growth is the astonishing growth in users from yesterday at mid-day to tonight -- a 30% jump. My latest estimate tonight shows approximately 9.5 million users. This suggests that 2.2 million people have joined Google+ in the past 32-34 hours.

I project that Google will easily pass 10 million users tomorrow and could reach 20 million user by this coming weekend if they keep the Invite Button available. As one G+ user put it, it is easy to underestimate the power of exponential growth.

My model is simple. I start with US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates. My ratio is 1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven't updated it since. That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time.

Since I have been tracking this same cohort of surnames from my first day, I am able to accurately measure growth over time.

I am not claiming perfect accuracy, but I do think the model is sound. A quant has suggested a mathematical formula that I can use to calculate a range of Google users with a 99% level of accuracy, and one of my employees is working on that math now. I hope to include that in future models.

Here is one way to look at my model. Imagine the U.S. government in 2020 has no money left. I know that's hard to imagine, but stay with me. Imagine they wanted to conduct a 2020 census and subsequent decennial censuses with a degree of accuracy (let's say 95%) and to do it on a shoestring budget.

They had complete data for 2010 - the population and growth rates for every city and town in the country. To do 2020, they could just take a random sampling of 100 cities and towns across the U.S. that were representative and conduct the census JUST for those cities every 10 years. If those 100 cities averaged the same growth rates as the rest of the country, then their decennial censuses would be fairly accurate but very inexpensive. (Obviously the US example won't work and shouldn't be tried, since the purpose of the U.S. census is in part to determine Congressional representation - so a complete census must be done in the entire country.)

But my project is like that - a low-budget sampling. I have randomly selected 100 uncommon U.S. surnames and I am tracking the number of Google+ users with those names - updating my counts every 2-3 days. I am assuming that the growth in G+ users with those surnames is similar to the growth in G+ users with the other 150,000 or so surnames in the U.S. If I had resources to include 500 or 1,000 surnames in my sample, then I believe my model would be more accurate. But my time and budget available for this project are small, so it is what it is. And then I take the 2.12 - 1 non-US to US ratio to complete the calculations.

I'm not sure how many more times I'll update this. I do believe it is quite accurate. Much more accurate than a guess. It is based on sound starting data, but some of my assumptions may not be perfect. I look forward to Google announcing actual user numbers, so I can stop working on this in all my spare time. Or, perhaps, someone will discover an advanced query that actually works - that returns unique user profile pages but no pages that contain posts. People keep suggesting queries will work, but so far, I have found that none of them is accurate for user counts.

For reference, here are my earlier posts on this subject:

4.5 million estimate on 7/9 (actually 12:15ish on 7/10)
https://plus.google.com/117388252776312694644/posts/1k85ZNPCu1A

1.7 million estimate on 7/4
https://plus.google.com/117388252776312694644/posts/VuKTMZm9xWy
Google+ is Growing Like Crazy. Report Coming Monday. Probably More than 4.5 Million Users Already On Monday morning I plan to publish my…
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wow. that is amazing!
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Joe Macias

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Will you be in my "Circle of Trust" or my "Circle of People with Bad B.O."? You'll never know!
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Brilliant!
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People
In his circles
144 people
Have him in circles
167 people
Laura Williams's profile photo
David Trotter's profile photo
Craig Mathison's profile photo
Matt Steen's profile photo
Mosey Amooti's profile photo
Eric Judd's profile photo
Thad Huff's profile photo
sydney metcalf's profile photo
David Woll's profile photo
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  • Northwest College
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I love Seattle.
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3rd grade checkers champion at Anna Borba Elementary, Chino, CA
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