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Trading With Waves
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Combining Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonnacci for profitable trading
Combining Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonnacci for profitable trading

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In case you missed it - check out our top 10 stocks in the Nasdaq 100...

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[Test] Ken will provide a current market analysis and dive into some of the stocks that are moving the most in the Nasdaq. If you are wondering what to do with your positions before the year is out - you need to attend this event.

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Watch us explain how to apply the Decision Support Engine to your existing trading strategy!

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Beyond the longer term view above, here's an updated NDX chart that outlines the shorter term rise (notice we've been covering our Nasdaq futures shorts and have now locked in over 12k points, over $600k, in our model forecast). The blue line shows what a perfect finish to wave (v) down of 'v down of I down, from the 3525 level would look like. The white line is what the DSE views as the highest probability outcome after completion of this wave down.
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Bullish sentiment has been high, on and off, for most of '13, as the rally from the '09 low has extended on and on.  But it is now at levels seen only a handful, literally , of times since the great peak of '00 (end of irrational exuberance and tech and dot-com bubble burst). Currently there is a dueling 93% bullish extremes on November 15 and 20.  This dual extreme is the highest plurality of bulls in recent history and is two of the only five "93% or higher extremes since August 31, 2000 (the only reading above 93% came in Nov. '10). 
As we've taught our WaveBOOM members for years, the DSE uses the information about these extremes from Elliot Wave Theory (which is just one of the 15 indicators that go into the DSE). Elliott Wave Theory tells us that sentiment extremes tend to lead stock price extremes, and this 93% "doubling down" week in November, along with record margin levels, and record a low in brokerage account net worth sets up the "Bull Trap" of the century for the next few years.

EWT tells us that sentiment peaks occur in wave 3′s, then makes lesser extremes in wave 5′s.  This new dual-93% bullish reading is even higher than the 92% of the wave 3 in May.  At the similar wave 3 and 5 in early '12, wave 5 didn't even approach the wave 3 extreme.  It's likely that the extraordinary size of the rise from the wave (B) low in June '12 signifies the final "sucking in" of the last bearish holdouts.  This is the perfect set up for the scale of the decline that should follow.

With the size of the expected decline in the next three years (testing or breaking the '09 low of Dow 6475 and Spx 666), the longer it takes to manifest, the greater the crash-like action will be needed to fit into the "window" for the ultimate low; June 2016 +/-1 year!

That is a long ways off and there are a lot of things that will change, we will continue to use the DSE to evaluate the underlying stocks on the market as well as treasuries, metals, commodities, and currencies.

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The count for the DOW that we've been seeing from our DSE as reported in our WaveThinking newsletter and to our WaveBOOM members earlier last week is playing out this week perfectly.

http://archive.aweber.com/thinkingww/Ihnpn/h/WaveThinking_11_15_2013.htm
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Looking at TBonds, they are trying to recover from the rate spike of the past 15 months, where the 10-year yields doubled from 1.4% to 3%. The forecast is for 3% to be broken above, and 6% seen in the coming few years. We watch TBonds throughout the day and usually model trades using TBond futures (ZB). We don't currently have a position here for WaveBOOM, but have some limits and stops identified from the DSE based on the analysis in this chart.

http://tradewithwaves.com/?p=32565
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