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The Evolution of a Smart trader continues with The Bear, The Bull and The News. https://goo.gl/Tpfw5y

Neal Kimberley analyses Thursday’s bank of Japan’s decision and how this has affected the market.

The Evolution has begun.

Forex and CFDs carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance
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Crude Oil: Profit taking or trend reversal
 
Iraq, the second largest exporter of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), reported in April an increase of 2.3% from southern fields and Iran also have increased the export of the black gold to nearly 2 million barrels per day, while at the beginning of 2016 they reported only about 1 million barrels a day, as did exports from Russia, the biggest exporter outside OPEC.
 
Last week the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the interest rates unchanged and implied that is in no rush to raise rates. This week, the dollar extended losses against a basket of six major currencies, hitting its weakest level since January 2015.
 
The depreciation of the US currency makes oil traded in dollars cheaper for investors who have foreign currency 
 
In the meantime, markets remain cautious on the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on crude inventories due today, following last week’s number of 1.999 million barrels. Today we have the release of EIA latest survey, the report is expected to show a decrease in crude oil stocks with estimates at 1.444 million barrels.
 
Since the beginning of month the commodity lost more than 4.0% and is still in an accumulation phase since mid-April.
 
On yesterday session, crude oil fell with a wide range however closed in the middle of the daily range, but managed to close below the previous day low, suggesting bearish momentum.
 
After a four day rally and making a new 2016 high, the commodity is starting to show some profit taking that may lead to a trend reversal.
 
Stochastic is showing a strong bearish momentum and crossed below the overbought zone.
 
Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
LCrude is a CFD written over Light Crude futures.
 
Hugo O’Neill
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Paulo Cleto Silva's profile photoFX .Strategist's profile photo
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Nice pullback with the possibility of going back up.
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Facebook: In upward trajectory
 
Facebook Inc. was founded in 2004 and is a social networking company, has its headquarters in Menlo Park, California. The Company focuses in developing products that allows users (people, marketers, and developers) to connect by various platforms and share through mobile devices and personal computers. Its products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and WhatsApp.
 
Facebook ordinary shares are traded on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange (NSE). Facebook ordinary shares are a constituent element of the NASDAQ 100 Index with a weighting of 5.40%.
 
On the 27th of April the company announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2016 showing revenue gain of almost 52% to $5.382 million compared to $3.543 million in the same period one year-ago, however Facebook lost almost 8% comparing to the previous quarter that ended at 31 December 2015.
 
Since the beginning of the year Facebook gained more than 16.0% nevertheless is in a well-established bullish phase since mid-February.

Yesterday the stock initially fell but found enough support to turn around and close near the high of the day, also managed to close above the previous day high, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.

The RSI is showing bullish momentum and is above the 50 mid line.

Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
FB.US is a CFD written over Facebook Incorporated Stock.
Hugo O’Neill
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The GAP has left the price above the daily support.
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A rapid succession of public holidays in Japan, collectively known as Golden Week, began on 29 April and will be followed by additional holidays on 3, 4 and 5 May. That necessarily affects liquidity in the yen market but it also means expressions of natural interest to buy and sell the yen from Japan’s importers and exporters would ordinarily be expected to be lodged with commercial banks ahead of time. In the aftermath of the 28 April Bank of Japan meeting that saw the Japanese central bank hold fire on monetary policy change, despite an expectation in the markets that the BOJ would act, the yen shot up in value. 

 Given that the BOJ’s current position is now in the public arena, foreign exchange traders should ask themselves how that might affect the complexion of order boards in the yen through Golden Week.  Japan’s importers and exporters have the same information as regards BOJ policy. Japan’s importers might logically conclude that the drivers of yen strength which reasserted themselves after the BOJ stood pat will remain dominant. So importers, who are natural sellers of yen, might resolve to leave their bids for dollars at lower levels than they might have done in other circumstances. Japan’s exporters earn dollars from overseas sales are natural buyers of yen and so are adversely affected by the yen’s rise. Japan’s exporters might therefore logically assume that if there is less potential for the yen to weaken in coming days, they should leave their offers to sell dollars at lower levels. Of course they might also play a waiting game and hope for better levels to sell dollars versus the yen in coming weeks, but even then minimal operational requirements will necessitate some degree of dollar selling. 

 With Golden Week having begun, foreign exchange traders will have to make judgements on how the BOJ decision will have influenced Japan’s natural buyers and sellers of yen as those players set their orders for the bank holiday period.
 
Written by Neal Kimberley, External currency analyst  
 
Forex and CFDs carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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Interesting, must keep in mind that info.
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NZDUSD: Still within a bullish channel
 
New Zealand saw its Consumer Price Index (CPI) rise 0.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016, showing an improvement of 0.1% from the previous quarter. The data came in line with market expectations due to the higher housing costs.
 
Yesterday the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the interest rate range unchanged between 0.25% up to 0.5% for the third time in a row. Fed officials expressed that inflation will reach in the medium term 2% target although economic activity appears to have slowed but labor market conditions continue to improve.
 
Since the beginning of April the NZDUSD lost more than 1.0% but is still in a bullish phase since the beginning of March.
 
On yesterday session the pair fell with a wide range and closed in the red, in the middle of the daily range, however managed to close below the previous day low, suggesting a bearish momentum.
 
The stochastic is showing a bearish momentum and is below the 50 mid line.
 
Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
Hugo O’Neill
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FX .Strategist's profile photoPaulo Cleto Silva's profile photo
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A prolonged and steady pattern!
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Goldman Sachs: Consolidating at a daily resistance
 
Goldman Sachs Group Incorporated was founded in 1869, and has its headquarters in New York although maintains offices in all major financial centers around the world. The firm is a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a wide range of financial services to corporations, financial institutions, governments and individuals.
 
Goldman Sachs ordinary shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Goldman Sachs ordinary shares are a constituent element of the S&P 500 Index with a weighting of 0.36%.
 
On the 19th of April the company announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2016 showing revenue loss of 40% to $6.338 million compared to $10.617 million in the same period one year-ago, this was the worst quarterly results in more than four years.
 
Since the beginning of the year Goldman Sachs lost more than 5.5% nevertheless is in a well-established recovery phase since mid-April.

Yesterday the stock went back and forward without any clear direction but closed near the low of the day although managed to close within the previous day range, suggesting a weak bearish momentum.

The RSI is showing bearish momentum however is still above the 50 mid line.

Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
GS.US is a CFD written over Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Stock.
Hugo O’Neill
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It is forming what it seems like a bullish flag.
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AUDUSD: Bears are in control
 
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to cut the interest rate to a new historic low of 1.75%, due to prospect of low inflation, though RBA sees consumer prices returning to target over time, it resorted to monetary policy easing to create future sustainable economic growth.
 
Also yesterday, the US released ADP Employment Change showing the hiring of 156K in April compared to a downwardly revised 194K in March and missing the market forecast of 196K new jobs. It is the lowest figure since April of 2013.
 
Since the beginning of May the AUDUSD lost more than 1.5% and made a phase change, from a bullish to a warning phase.
 
On yesterday session the pair initially rose but found enough selling pressure to give back all its gains and closed in the red, near the low of the day, in addition managed to close below the previous day low, suggesting a strong bearish momentum.
 
The stochastic is showing an oversold market although is still displaying a strong bearish momentum.
 
Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
Hugo O’Neill
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FX .Strategist's profile photoPaulo Cleto Silva's profile photo
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Impressive slump!
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The Evolution of a trader continues with The Bear, The Bull and The News. How should the news affect your trading decisions? https://goo.gl/BJfDkC

Also catch up with last week’s installment, where expert trader Gavin Holmes showed us the Day in the Life of a Trader.

The Evolution has begun.

Forex and CFDs carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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AUDJPY: About to retest a daily support

Australia saw its Consumer Prices Index (CPI) ease to 1.3% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2016 comparing to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2015 and missing market expectations of 1.8%. It is the first decline since the fourth quarter of 2008.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its word to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen however decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at -0.1% with led to the appreciation of the yen.

Since the beginning of this year AUDJPY has fallen more than 7.5% and last week alone fell more than 6.0% in addition the pair made a phase change, shifting from an accumulation to a bearish phase.

During last Friday’s session the pair plunged with a narrow range and closed near the low of the day, additionally managed to close below the previous day low, suggesting a strong bearish momentum.

Stochastic is showing a strong bearish momentum and is below the 50 mid line.

Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Hugo O’Neill
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Ger30: Bounced from the 200-day moving average

The labor market in Germany continues on the right track as showed by its adjusted unemployment rate that fell to 4.2% in March, compared to 4.3% in February and hitting a new fresh 35-year low. It is one of the lowest unemployment rates among the European Union Member States. According to Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) Germany unemployment rate reached 4.8% a year ago.

The preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany rose 0.1% year-over-year in April, slowing from a 0.3% growth in March, but in line with market forecast.

Since the beginning of April the European locomotive gained more than 3.0% however is in a potential phase change, from an accumulation to a recovery phase.

Yesterday the Ger30 went back and forward without any clear direction and close in the middle of the daily range, although managed to close below the previous day low, suggesting bearish momentum.

The stochastic is showing a bearish momentum and crossed below the overbought zone.
 
Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
Ger30 is a CFD written over DAX30 futures.
 
Hugo O’Neill
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HTO Trading's profile photoPaulo Cleto Silva's profile photoFX .Strategist's profile photo
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Very good formation.
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Crude Oil: Makes a new 2016 high
 
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Non-OPEC nations failed to reach an agreement on freezing production at a meeting in Qatar although major crude producers still believe that would meet again to try to restrain oil production output. However we saw oil prices rallying last week due to a sudden drop in the crude inventories.
 
Unexpected fall in new US home sales in March puts pressure on US economic growth, supporting the market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave rates unchanged later today.
 
A stronger dollar sets pressured in commodities such as oil which is priced in the US currency.
 
In the meantime, markets remain cautious on the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on crude inventories due today, following last week’s number of 2.080 million barrels. Today we have the release of EIA latest survey, the report is expected to show an increase in crude oil stocks with estimates at 2.333 million barrels.
 
Since the beginning of month the commodity gained more than 17.0% and is an accumulation phase since mid-April.
 
On yesterday session, crude oil rose with a wide range and closed near the high of the day, in addition managed to close above the previous day high, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.
 
The commodity rallied after a three day consolidations, creating a bullish engulfing and making a new 2016 high.
 
Stochastic is showing an extreme overbought market although is still displaying bullish momentum.
 
Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
LCrude is a CFD written over Light Crude futures.
 
Hugo O’Neill
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Paulo Cleto Silva's profile photoFX .Strategist's profile photo
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Amazing rally, it may continue higher.
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EURGBP: Potential shooting star
 
Last week the European Central Bank (ECB) left its interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.0% but in line with market expectations, after a 5 basis points (bps) cut in March. And according to ECB President Mario Draghi, the rates are expected to stay at present or lower levels for an extended period of time as the ECB prepares to start buying corporate bonds in June.
 
Also last week, as widely expected the Bank of England (BoE) voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate at 0.5% and keep the stock of purchased assets at £375 billion. And according to the BoE it has been signs that uncertainty surrounding the UK referendum to stay or leave the European Union had begun to weigh on growth.
 
Since the beginning of the year EURGBP gained more than 6.5% and is in bullish phase since early January 2016.
 
This month the pair tried to rally but found enough resistance at 0.8074 to reverse and is trading near the low of the current month, however is trading within the previous month range, suggesting a slightly on the bearish side of neutral momentum.
 
If the pair closes near the low of April, it makes a potential shooting star pattern which is a candlestick reversal pattern.
 
The stochastic is showing an overbought market although is still displaying a strong bullish momentum.
 
Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
Hugo O’Neill
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Paulo Cleto Silva's profile photoFX .Strategist's profile photo
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Very realiable pattern when confirmed with another bearish candle.
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ActivTrades is a London based broker regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), and it is also affiliated to the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). 

ActivTrades real strengths are competitive prices, the ability to stay abreast of the latest industry technologies, tools and platforms, reliability and outstanding customer service. A highly skilled Support Desk operates 24 hours a day, 5 days a week, providing a timely response to inquiries in English, Italian, German, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Russian, Bulgarian, Chinese,  Arabic, Hungarian, Bulgarian and Dutch.

Our spreads starts from 0.8 pips and our clients can trade 50 currency pairs, alongside with indices, financials, commodities and shares. All available through the powerful and globally respected MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader5 trading platforms, which are also available on the most widely used mobile devices.

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The thoughts and opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the view of ActivTrades Plc. All commentaries are for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The decision to act on any ideas and suggestions presented is at the sole discretion of reader.

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ActivTrades PLC is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FCA registration number 434413.