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Ziad Daoud
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16 followers
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Chronicles of an Omani devaluation unforetold
What
does a devaluation in 1986 tell us about the likelihood of another devaluation
today? Of all countries in
the Gulf, Oman carries the highest risk of devaluing its currency. Last year,
it ran a large current account deficit (roughly trade deficit plus r...
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US rate hike highlights the region’s policy limitations
The
unintended fiscal consequences of higher US interest rates. The US central bank raised interest rates on Wednesday. The
US economy is recovering: growth is picking up, unemployment is falling,
inflation is rising and the long overhang from the 2008 cris...
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OPEC and oil: Out of ammo?
There
is little more OPEC could do to increase its revenue. The OPEC agreement
to cut production has shifted oil prices to a higher level, around $55 now
compared to $45 prior to the deal. But there are signs that higher oil prices are
leading to a revival ...
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OPEC cuts - a short-term gain for a long-term pain?
OPEC’s
strategy has worked so far, but could end up being self-defeating. OPEC surprised
markets on 30 November 2016 by agreeing
to cut oil production in an attempt to support prices. The cuts were meant to
reduce OPEC’s production by roughly one million ba...
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How much oil does Iraq produce?
Disagreements
about Iraq’s oil production could derail the recently-announced OPEC deal. OPEC surprised markets
by agreeing, in principle,
to limit the oil production of its members to a range between 32.5 and 33.0 million barrels per day (m b/d). The agree...
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What does an IMF programme mean for the Egyptian pound?
After
many false dawns, Egypt is set to agree a deal with the IMF which could
stabilise its battered currency. Egypt’s currency
crisis has been an important theme since the revolution of 2011. The
crisis has intensified in recent months , with the price of ...
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Brexit and the Arab World
Limited
economic consequences of Brexit on the Arab World. Against the odds, rational
arguments and cost-benefit analysis , the good people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European
Union in a referendum on 23 June. The news sent shockwaves througho...
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Will Saudi Arabia end its addiction to oil?
Optimism
over the Saudi national vision is premature. On 25 April, Saudi
Arabia unveiled its national
vision , a set of goals it wants to achieve by 2030. A central theme in the Vision 2030 , a brainchild of the Deputy
Crown Prince Mohammad bin
Salman , is ...
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Iran-Saudi competition poses a risk to oil market recovery
An
escalation of the Iranian-Saudi competition could decelerate the ongoing rebalancing
in the oil market. Oil markets are
rebalancing. US
production is falling and demand
is proving resilient . The misalignment between demand and supply is being
reduced as...
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The Saudi fiscal plan is more austere than Greece
The
Saudi austerity plan is too stringent and, if implemented, could be damaging for growth. The fall in oil
prices has hit Saudi public finances. The government’s budget balance switched from
a surplus of 6% of GDP (a measure of the size of the economy) in...
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