By Harry S. Dent Jr., Senior Editor, Economy & Markets
EditorIt’s finally happening. The crash season is upon us.
We’ve seen the early signs this week with leading stocks getting the carpet swept out right from underneath them.
China’s stocks are right where they were when its bubble burst 35% into July. UK stocks are in a correction. The DAX is in a correction. And the S&P 500 hasn’t busted quite as much – yet – but it’s dipped below that important level of 2,000 at the bottom of the S&P 500 Channel going back to late 2011.
That strongly suggests the market has topped and the great crash is in motion. It must be grating on the psyche of any investor who’s dared to stay in stocks this long.
So where do we go from here?
I can promise you, it’s only going to get worse!
Like our economy, there is clear seasonality when it comes to stocks. Trends flesh out overtime. It’s not random. From that data, I want to give you a picture of what the next few months might look like.
It’s a well-known fact that September tends to be the worst month of the year. This goes all the way back to 1928. It’s the worst month by far. Take a look:
See larger image
The strongest months are July at a 1.5% average gain, with December, April, and January following in that order. The worst performing months are September, May, and February.
One simple reason stocks get slaughtered in September is taxes. Money managers look at their portfolios and scrap the losers to write those losses off to offset the taxes they’d pay on other gains.
But this monthly breakdown masks the fact that such annual downturns often start in mid-to-late August and bottom in early-to-mid October. September carries most of the weight, but those months look better than they actually are.
And remember – I’m just talking about averages.
In the years when we get larger corrections and crashes – as I expect to see during these last drama-spilling months of 2015 and into next year – the odds are much worse. The crash period between mid-August to mid-October tends to be much more extreme.
1987 was a classic example of this. The market topped on August 25, had a minor correction into September 8, a minor bounce into October 2, then crashed 34% in less than three weeks. It bottomed October 20.
These moves can happen in a flash. The biggest part of that crash happened in just one week: down 31% from October 13 to 20. Black Monday, October 19, saw 20% in one day!
Overall, the Dow crashed 41%.
Take a look at this table. It shows when major corrections have occurred during the crash season. Note the largest string of crashes in the last economic winter season between 1929 and 1932.
See larger image
The sharper crashes typically fall between July and October. Sometimes a larger crash will extend into the end of the year. 1929’s chaotic meltdown extended into November. 1930’s didn’t stop until December. Bigger bubbles need longer to let the air out!
This crash looks imminent. Now more than ever, I believe we saw a top on May 20. Since then we’ve seen a “rounding top” much like we saw into August of 2008 before that crash got nasty. How fitting. The only reason this bubble exists is because we fought off that last one with free money. I guess Mother Nature has a sense of humor.
- Heritage Environmental Services, LLCIT Developer, 2015 - presentDescription to follow
- EverInquisitive - The Creative ConstructCEO and Founder, 2010 - presentEverInquisitive is a Creative Solutions Organization, an imaginative think tank, one that caters towards the interactive realms. One might ask or suggest the previous statement is merely a broad stroke. One that is neither descriptive or explicative; let me elaborate. Imagine, if you will, an organization faces a marketing deadline, one that requires graphics, artwork, story boards, and or logo design. Our creative solutions department will kick the imaginative juices into high gear and cater towards your short deadline . What if another organization seeks a Web Application Usability Assessment. EverInquisitive can provide such services, can provide a report depicting probable problematic areas and their associative technical solutions. Difficulty devising which technology stack to consume? We at EverInquisitive will prioritize, propose, and provide a an explicit report depicting a best fit solution for your organization. Require a commissioned piece, whose composition could be Oil on Canvas, Pencil to Paper, or mixed mediums? That's right, EverInquisitive can answer the call. So what is EverInquisitive ? We are the technological artists, the technical writers, the usability experts, the architects whose passion evolved from the artistic and literary realms. Our imaginative passion fuels our hearts, engulfs our lives, and fills the void where none can be found. We look forward to speaking with you and working with you both now and in the future. Website: http://everInquisitive.com/
- Capita TechnologiesProject Coordinator\Project Manager, 2013 - 2015• Understand and execute the Capita Technologies Request for Proposal (RFP) Contract. • Understand, execute, and provide working examples for Subcontractor Statements of Work (SOW). • Gather, analyze, assess, facilitate, and deliver within Capita Technologies Project Business processes and controls by successfully executing the Project Management Plan (WBS) on time and on budget. • Assess and successfully allocate team resources, their tasks, and deliverables against the Project Management Plan (WBS). • Engage both team resources as well as the Project Manager, to ensure resource task efficiency, accuracy, and successful completion on or before milestone deliverable dates. • Facilitate, participate, and deliver live deliverable templates as well as contextually and successfully compose such project milestone deliverables to completion. • Organize, facilitate, and participate within weekly and bi-weekly project status meetings. • Organize, facilitate, and participate within daily on-site and off-site knowledge sharing sessions. • Deliver weekly and bi-weekly project status reports pertaining to the following context: Executive Summary, Timeliness, Deliverables, Target Dates of Completion and % of Completion, Issues, Risks and Plan of Action for the Risks, as well as any other information that will convey the true “health” of the project. • Encourage and aspire to all facets of communication, if only to maintain fluid project dynamics, fluid milestone delivery, and meet milestone expectations and time-lines. • Motivate and encourage project team resources, to enforce team dynamics and allocated task responsibilities. • Build and enforce open door policies, to enable our project team, out client to have open forums, for project progress, success, risks, and mitigation. • Provide the necessary on-site and or off-site Capita Case Suite of Products cross-training; whether it be application demonstrations for sales, marketing, and or product cross-training.
- Bostech CorporationGWT Senior Software Engineer, 2011 - 2012• GWT \ Java JRE\JDK Ver. 6.0 ~ Provided the necessary heads-down client-side to server-side web application development for new functionality enhancements and or defect\bug fixes. Beyond these primary responsibilities facilitated best practices, standardization's, conventions, consumption of new technologies, and implementations regarding the RIA Umbrella, GWT, and Open Source Technologies. • Jasper Reports \ iReports ~ Facilitated and implemented Proof of Concept, regarding Jasper Reports and NOSql Mongo Database. Such reporting strategy leveraged Mongo’s unique Scalability via Jasper designated Java Customized DataSources and Collection Bean Strategies. Such customized Data Injection was the only comparable means of accomplishing the proof of concept in a timely fashion, given the Non-Relational Database. The injection of such reporting mechanism was intended as a Birt Replacement and devised to retrieve and present Personal Healthcare Information (PHI) associated to specific lab analytics, at runtime. All reporting templates were highly customized, per client request, and varied in layout, header and footer depictions, as well as data flow from right to left or left to right, within a table or grid construct. • Engaged in an Agile Environment with focus on Two Week Iterations, Daily 9:00am Stand-Ups in conjunction with 12:00pm and 5:00pm notification updates, and a continuous Integration life-cycle.
- Purdue UniversityGWT Application Developer, System Administrator, Data Modeler, 2008 - 2011• Engaged in a Full Stack SDLC consuming the GWT Framework, GWT Ext Libraries, in conjunction with key Open Source Technologies. Such client-side to server-side web application development entailed facilitating best practices, standardization's, conventions, consumption of new technologies, and implementations regarding the RIA Umbrella, GWT, and Open Source Technologies. • In addition to such; design, development, testing, implementation, service, database administration and modeling were all “hats” worn, for the inevitable replacement of a current legacy application. • Overall, the newly converted web application provided university level Space Management and Administration via CRUD Methodology, Auditing-Logging, Jasper Reporting, Change Request, Change Logging, Notification, User Authentication and Authorization Work-flows, for Professional, Academic Staff, and Student Client Consumption. • Jasper Reports \ iReports ~ Facilitated and implemented Reporting Workflow regarding Oracle Relational Database. Leveraging current university data enabled presentation of spacial allocations at the Department, Campus, and University Level, for internal and external government requirements. All reporting templates were mostly depicted in a landscape format whose construct was grid or table based and provided appropriate header and footer depictions. • Engaged in an Agile Environment with focus on One Month Iterations, Monthly 8:30am Stand-Ups in conjunction with continuous notification updates, and Integration life-cycle.
- Norwood Promotional ProductsPeopleSoft Application Developer, 2007 - 2008• Provided ERP, CRM, and FSCM Module service and application customization development; whether it be vanilla and or internal customized applications or work-flows. • Produced and Transitioned Business Partner Functional Specifications to Technical Specifications in preparation of New and Customized Work-flows. Forecast Design, Development, Testing, and Implementation Time-lines with regards to Overall Project Time-lines. • Mocked Up, Designed, Developed, and Tested New Order Clarification Workflow. Incorporated Third Party Software Interfaces to Kewill and Kofax, Standard and Custom Note(s), SQR Reporting, Customer and Company Archival Status tracking via CRM to FSCM EIP, and general delivered SQR Report customizations. • Devised, Documented, and Published Peoplesoft Application Versions 8.80 to 9.00 Order Management (OM) Business Data Migration Requirements. • Designed and Developed Website mock-up for end user presentation via Static HTML: http://www.ashgrovemarketing.com • Provided PHP and HTML Development and Implementation for Norwood Promotional Products Website: http://norwood.com/
- State Farm InsuranceSystems Analyst, 2001 - 2007
- Indiana State UniversityComputer Science, 1999 - 2001
- Southern Illinois University CarbondaleMechanical Engineering, 1989 - 1994
Buy Original Digital Art, Drawing, Painting, Photography And Art Prints ...
Discover, Share, Buy and Sell Art Online. Find Original Artwork Including Paintings, Photography, Sculpture, Drawings, or Prints at Great Pr
Google +1 Button Script | Bryan Hadaway's Web + Tech Blog
If this is the first you've heard of this new Google +1 (Plus One) Button; checkout the official page. And full documentation here. First, a
Contextual Symposium: 2013 Motorcycles on Meridian ~
This was my first year attending the MotoGP Motorcycles on Meridian, Indianapolis, Indiana. At first I was not certain what to anticipate. H