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Bernd Einfeldt
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"Previous work has shown a correlation between climate disasters and fighting but the new analysis shows the disasters precede the conflict, suggesting a causal link. Experts have warned that an increase in natural disasters due to global warming is a “threat multiplier” for armed violence. The scientists behind the new research say it could be used to predict where future violence might flare, allowing preventative measures to be taken."


"Armed conflicts are among the biggest threats to people, killing some and forcing others to leave their home and maybe flee to faraway countries,” said Prof John Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and one of the research team. The combination of climate disasters and ethnic tensions make an “explosive mixture,” he said."


"The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that 23% of the armed conflicts in ethnically divided places were linked to climate disasters, compared to just 9% of all armed conflicts. Schellnhuber speculated that ethnic divisions might mean that the impact of a climate disaster would disproportionately impact one group more than another, due to their location or poverty level. “People immediately start scapegoating then,” he said."


"Prof Solomon Hsiang, at the University of California Berkeley and not part of the new research, showed in 2011 that changes to the climate were linked to 20% of civil wars since 1950. He said: “The linkage between large-scale climatic changes and violence is a remarkable finding of the last several years and has major implications for societies around the world, both today and in the future.”


"“Recent studies have demonstrated that these patterns hold around the world, throughout human history, and at all scales of social organisation: from violence within families all the way up to full scale civil war,” Hsiang said"

... see also
for a possible path towards a non-statistical equation linking population growth to the environment.

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This sounds crazy
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"Also on Monday, German newspaper Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung reported that there have been 410 indications of possible terrorists among asylum seekers, according to the country's security apparatus."

..see also the Failure of Free-Migration:
A Berlin official has said it's unclear why the Syrian asylum seeker was still living in Germany at the time of the attack. The man allegedly blew himself up at a restaurant in the Bavarian city of Ansbach.
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"In Antarctica, another paper published last week showed that the retreat of 90% of the Peninsula’s glaciers since 1940 is mostly due to warming of the oceans, not the air ......."

"Prof Andrew Shepherd, at the University of Leeds, said: “It’s completely unsurprising that in any long-term temperature record there will be a decade of measurements that buck the trend. There are few scientists left who believe that atmospheric warming will be the main cause of Antarctic [ice] instability over the next century. The real threat is ocean warming, which has triggered widespread loss of ice just around the corner in west Antarctica and we should not lose sight of that.”

... see also ocean circulations

and ocean acidification
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"The five million Syrians now in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan are the latest and most dramatic example of this pattern....."

... and over one million in Germany.

".... we need to accept the fact that most of the refugees arriving in the EU will not return home."

... even if it is against the law - thus creating potential worker for criminal and radical religious organizations? Is there an other choice for illegal immigrants in Germany?

I think there is another important point, related to changing climate zones and an exponential population growth. The infrastructure and agriculture in many Middle East and African countries is under immense pressure from an exponential growing society and from draughts and floods. Sooner or later creating wars and refugee streams.
If the predictions related to changing climate zones are correct, then the situation will get worse.
Ethnic, religious, and political refugee streams are of a temporary nature, related to dramatic changes in the human society.
But how can Africa and the Middle East adjust to changing climate zones, if at the same time large areas of fertile agriculture land is sold (in Africa) to the international food industry and the population continues to grow exponentially?
Repeating Europe's history of plages, widespread famines and devastating wars should not be an option.

Here's a pretty good piece highlighting some of the systemic aspects of the global immigration problem. 
The horrendous Bastille Day attack in Nice by a French-Tunisian man will give National Front leader Marine Le Pen a massive boost in France's presidential election next spring. Even if she loses, the era of free labor mobility is drawing to a close – another casualty of neoliberalism's misplaced faith in markets.
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P.S. See for further remarks on the population threat. 
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"The global trend in rising temperatures is outpaced by the regional warming in the Arctic, said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA Goddard."

"It has been a record year so far for global temperatures, but the record high temperatures in the Arctic over the past six months have been even more extreme," Meier said. "This warmth as well as unusual weather patterns have led to the record low sea ice extents so far this year."

I don't know if it makes sense to define a global average temperature and how satellite measurements, air borne measurements and ground based temperature measurements relate to each other and to older temperature records; see also for a discussion.
I think a clear definition of the earth average temperature should be added to this article.

However I think the sea ice extent is an obvious natural indicator for climate changes. In an previous article is also mentioned, that the sea ice becomes thinner; see
Two key climate change indicators -- global surface temperatures and Arctic sea ice extent -- have broken numerous records through the first half of 2016
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+Lola Lewis I try to follow these questions in this collection. There is no simple answer. 
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For many, woman and man, there was no career in mathematics.

As a young student of mathematics I attended a course on conservation laws. These non-linear partial differential equation govern violent interfaces like shock waves and fragile shear layer, which can become turbulent. I asked if it is possible to write a master thesis (Diplomarbeit) about the numerical solution of conservation laws. A Professor told me that he worked on this subject and that I will fail. Nevertheless I wrote a thesis and successful discussed and implemented state of the art numerical methods. I finished the diploma with a top grade.

But there was a simple intrigued question. How is it possible to describe shock and shear/contact interfaces as infinitesimal thin, if atoms have a finite size? Either an layer contains an atom, then it is not infinitesimal thin, or it does not contain any matter, then it is an unrealistic mathematical approximation?

Still working on my diploma (master), I drafted a numerical method which I hoped would help to answer this question in relation to shear layer (linear interfaces). This method essentially removes the shear layer from a building block in the numerical solution. Thus - if an infinitesimal thin shear/contact layer is an independent identity, then this method should produce physical wrong solution, while methods which explicitly approximate this shear/contact layer should give the physical correct solution.
But there was not enough time to work it out, close to the final exams and attending the other required courses for a degree. Thus I put the question aside and almost forgot about it.
As a doctorate I finally worked out the method and compared the numerical results with established methods. To my surprise, there was no fundamental difference between my (HLLE) method and the established methods. I discussed the above question at the mathematical institute - they did not even understand the question. More or less only the description of the method was published and the above question was put aside.
The HLLE method was then merely regarded as a version of another method. Some respected scientists even claimed, that I did some reverse engineering to obtain the HLLE method - which is absolutely ridiculous. I left the scientific field after an unhappy postdoctorate year in the UK.
Then after working over two decades as an IT consultant, I accidental saw an scholarly article, which described a fundamental difference between the HLLE method and other methods explicitly approximating a shear/contact layer. The test problem described in this paper is today known as the Carbuncle phenomenon. To my surprise noted the author, that the HLLE method gives the correct solution and not the methods which explicitly approximate the shear/contact layer.
This however indicates that the mathematical description of an infinitesimal thin shear/contact layer is incomplete - an mathematical idealized description contradicting physical reality. This has far reaching consequences. For example follows, that a finite space volume cannot contain a Turing machines (real computer are merely an approximation to Turing machines) , there are just not enough discrete objects which can be separated by an interface.

The articles I wrote as a young doctorate are still quoted today, but there was no change to continue the work related to the above question - this is impossible outside an mathematical research environment. I don't think the above question was in the meantime subject of an other resarch project.

The article "On Godunov-Type Methods for Gas Dynamics" was published in an scholarly journal 1988 and 1986 as an institute report, shortly after my diploma. In 1996 I was already working as an IT consultant, not paying attention to scholarly literature. In many scholarly articles the method is mentioned or used, but not referenced.

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+Bernd Einfeldt No, I don't think they would. Those were different days, though, when journals were not as obviously run by profit-mongering corporations.
But also, there were far, far, far fewer submissions to journals back then, so editors and reviewers could afford to spend the time to check each paper more carefully. Also, back then, academics didn't have the time pressures (admittedly largely self-imposed of course) that they have today.
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"The fire in northern Los Angeles County grew to more than 17 square miles, spreading smoke across the city and suburbs, reducing the sun to an orange disk at times. Containment was estimated at just 10 percent."
Wildfires burned out of control Saturday in mountains north of Los Angeles and near Big Sur on California’s scenic Central Coast, posing a threat to 2,000 homes and a sanctuary for exotic animals which was being evacuated, authorities said.
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I sometimes use the term exponential growth, non-linear equation and stability in thIs collection. Gilbert Strang uploaded his lecture on the Logistic equation on YouTube. The style may look a bit outdated, at least for people used to cool animated YouTube videos. But mathematics is not about form, style and coolness. It is a language which allows to understand nature, without our biased cultural views or political pre-justices. It does not matter in which context we learn mathematics. For a young poor indian boy (Sriniwasa Ramanujan) even a few math text books were sufficient.

So far I only watched a few videos. However, I read Gilbert Strang's book on Linear Algebra, which is clearly written, an excellent book. Using infinite matrices and the theory of Hilbert Spaces, he even explains the basics of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle using matrix theory.

Well the logistic equation, he is talking about is only a very simple model for an constrained population growth. I think a more realistic description would be governed by a more complex (significant more complex) non-linear partial differential equation, coupling population growth to environmental and other variables. From this equation a kind of logistic solution (S-curve) may be derived as a special case.
This partial differential equation might not even have a well-defined local linearization and the stability question requires a new mathematical approach.

In the following lecture Gilbert Strang discusses the stability and instability of steady states for a single Ordinary Differential Equation. The question of shock wave and contact/shear layer stability results in an similar question for an non-linear system of ODEs; see equation (24.9) in Joel Smoller's book on "Shock Waves and Reaction-Diffusion Equation". However, using the Roe Matrix even this system can be linearized and the stability question approached in a similar manner; see chapter 4 in my article "On Godunov-Type Methods for Gas Dynamics" for a rather sketchy description; if time permits I will outline the stability considerations - finally after decades. However the Roe-linearization is in general (e.g. near a vacuum) not well-defined; see my article "On Godunov-Type Methods near low Densities" and the system not always linearizable; the Journal of Computational Physics holds the copyright and it can can be purchased today from the JCP for roughly $40. Much more mathematical work needs to be done in regard to the failure of linearization - and I am not aware, that it was done in the last decades.

From the application point of view is the question; why slows competition the population growth? Because people have less children, like in Europe? Or because of famines and plagues? Or because people are killing each other?
Another question is how large a/b can be for a country/continent with a sustainable population growth? The value is not fixed an depends likely on the culture and scientific progress.

P.S. Knowing the solution of an equation the graph can of course simply be depicted in an math program. 
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"Im Jahr 2015 haben sich 6.808 Personen beim zuständigen Landesbetrieb Erziehung und Beratung gemeldet und angegeben, minderjährig zu sein. Auf 4.234 traf dies nicht zu. Insgesamt wurden damit in 2015 2.574 Minderjährige in Obhut genommen. Gegenüber dem Vorjahr stieg die Zahl um 294 Prozent."

"Die Zunahme der Inobhutnahmen macht eine Ausweitung der bestehenden Platzkapazitäten in Erstversorgungseinrichtungen des LEB erforderlich. Gegenwärtig betreibt der LEB über zehn Standorte, weitere sind in Planung"


"Bis zum 31. Oktober 2015 war diejenige Kommune für die Unterbringung und Versorgung von minderjährigen unbegleiteten Flüchtlinge zuständig, in deren Einzugsbereich der junge Mensch aufgegriffen wurde. Hiervon war Hamburg – neben weiteren Städten wie Aachen, Frankfurt / Main, Rosenheim oder Berlin – besonders betroffen. Der Hamburger Senat hat sich erfolgreich für eine Änderung der bis dato geltenden Regelung eingesetzt."

"Seit 1. November 2015 findet die bundesweite Verteilung statt. Gemäß dem geltenden Verteilverfahren wurde für Hamburg eine Aufnahmequote von 2,53 Prozent an allen bundesweiten Fällen bzw. aktuell 1.717 Personen festgelegt. In die Quote werden die Personen in Hilfen zur Erziehung und in der Inobhutnahme eingerechnet"


"Die große Mehrheit der minderjährigen Flüchtlinge zeigt starkes Interesse an einer Schul- und Berufsausbildung und profitiert von den guten Hamburger Unterstützungssystemen wie Jugendhilfe, Schule und Gesundheitshilfe. Gleichwohl verhält sich eine sehr kleine Gruppe von ihnen auffällig und ist bereits mehrfach polizeilich in Erscheinung getreten. Sie begehen Straftaten, verhalten sich teilweise aggressiv und konsumieren massiv Drogen. Für pädagogische Unterstützungsangebote sind diese jungen Flüchtlinge so gut wie nicht erreichbar. "

"Vordringliches Ziel ist eine gute Versorgung und Integration von unbegleiteten minderjährigen Flüchtlingen in Hamburg. Kriminellem und aggressivem Verhalten wird dabei konsequent und umgehend entgegengewirkt. Dies ist mit pädagogischem Handeln allein allerdings nicht zu leisten, sondern erfolgt in gemeinsamer Verantwortung von Jugendhilfe, Polizei, Justiz, Medizin und Schule."

"Die erheblich delinquenten Flüchtlinge, die wiederholt Straftaten oder schwere Gewaltstraftaten begehen, werden im Rahmen eines Monitoring-Verfahrens („Obacht-Liste“) erfasst. So kann behördenübergreifend rasch reagiert werden und umgehend normenverdeutlichende Maßnahmen erfolgen. Gegenwärtig (Februar 2016) befinden sich 26 dieser Jugendlichen auf der „Obacht-Liste“. Sie machen nur einen kleinen Teil der insgesamt über 2.400 unbegleiteten minderjährigen Flüchtlinge aus, die zur Zeit in Hamburger Jugendhilfeeinrichtungen leben."

"Auch wird so die weitere Entwicklung der jungen Flüchtlinge verfolgt. Damit soll vermieden werden, dass sich delinquentes, gewalttätiges Verhalten verfestigt."

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"Mary Robinson, the former president of Ireland and UN special envoy on climate change and El Niño, said she had to speak out after Germany promised compensation for coal power and the UK provided tax breaks for oil and gas."


"Furthermore, the Elders said they were concerned that the world’s top 10 biggest greenhouse gas emitters had not yet ratified the Paris deal. The US and China have both pledged to ratify the deal this year, which only comes into force once at least 55 countries representing at least 55% of global emissions have ratified."

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"FinFisher, also known as FinSpy,is surveillance software marketed by Lench IT solutions PLC with a UK-based branch Gamma International Ltd in Andover, England, and a Germany-based branch Gamma International GmbH in Munich, which markets the spyware through law enforcement channels. Gamma International is a subsidiary of the Gamma Group, specializing in surveillance and monitoring, including equipment, software, and training services, reportedly owned by William Louthean Nelson through a shell corporation in the British Virgin Islands.
FinFisher can be covertly installed on targets' computers by exploiting security lapses in the update procedures of non-suspect software. The company has been criticized by human rights organizations for selling these capabilities to repressive or non-democratic states known for monitoring and imprisoning political dissidents. Egyptian dissidents who ransacked the offices of Egypt's secret police following the overthrow of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak reported they discovered a contract with Gamma International for €287,000 for a license to run the FinFisher software. In 2014, an American citizen sued the Ethiopian government for the surreptitious downloading of FinSpy on his computer, which was used to wiretap his private Skype calls and monitoring his entire family’s every use of the computer for a period of months.
On August 6, 2014, FinFisher source code, pricing, support history, and other related data were retrieved from the Gamma International internal network and made available on the Internet."


"On 12 March 2013 Reporters Without Borders named Gamma International as one of five "Corporate Enemies of the Internet" and “digital era mercenaries” for selling products that have been or are being used by governments to violate human rights and freedom of information. FinFisher technology was used in Bahrain and Reporters Without Borders, together with Privacy International, the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR), the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, and Bahrain Watch filed an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) complaint, asking the National Contact Point in the United Kingdom to further investigate Gamma’s possible involvement in Bahrain. Since then research has shown that FinFisher technology was used in many countries, among them Germany and Turkey. "

Source Wikipedia:

Illegal software is used for law-enforcement without any democratic control, on the other hand are calls for murder on innocent people and brutal killings freely published on the internet, always finding some breeding ground in fragmented societies. 
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"Ankara: Türkische Akademiker dürfen das Land offenbar nicht mehr verlassen. Nach übereinstimmenden Medienberichten verhängte die Hochschulverwaltung ein entsprechendes Ausreiseverbot. Universitäts-Mitarbeiter, die sich zu Forschungszwecken im Ausland aufhalten, wurden zur Rückkehr aufgefordert. Die Hochschulrektoren wurden zudem angewiesen, sämtliche Mitarbeiter auf Verbindungen zur Bewegung des Predigers Gülen zu prüfen. Bei Gülen handelt es sich um einen früheren Weggefährten und späteren Widersacher von Präsident Erdogan. Die türkische Führung macht seine Bewegung für den gescheiterten Putsch verantwortlich. Seit dem Putschversuch in der Nacht zu Sonnabend sind in der Türkei mehr als 50.000 Soldaten, Polizisten, Richter und Lehrer festgenommen oder suspendiert worden."
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Bernd's Collections
  • RWTH Aachen
    Doctorate in Mathematics, 1985 - 1988
  • University of Hamburg
    Mathematics, 1985
Basic Information
The Digital World is Merely an Approximation to Reality.
I am from a lower middle class family in Hamburg, Germany. Grown up in a quite suburb, with some green spaces, where kids could meet to play soccer, build a treehouse or test there self-made toy kites and bows. Studied mathematics in Hamburg, Germany and received a doctorate in natural science from the  RWTH Aachen, Germany with summa cum laude. Published a few papers which are still quoted after twenty years in scholarly journals. Spend an postdoctoral year in England. Left the scientific field and worked for almost two decades as a big-storage consultant. However, I am probably more an intellectual than a sales person and stopped working as an IT consultant, when this was financially possible.

Watch out for spelling errors in my posts. If you care more about perfect orthography than content, then this is probably not the right blog for you. 

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Bernd Einfeldt's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
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