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Thomas Lee
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Sunflower Movement in Bay Area

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Google+ Growth Accelerating. Passes 62 million users. Adding 625,000 new users per day. Prediction: 400 million users by end of 2012.

Google+ is adding new users at a very rapid pace. It may be the holidays, the TV commercials, the Android 4 signups, celebrity and brand appeal, or positive word of mouth, or a combination of all these factors, but there is no question that the number of new users signing up for Google+ each day has accelerated markedly in the past several weeks.

Each week my team from elance runs hundreds of queries on various surnames which we have been tracking since July. We revised our model based on the actual user announcements made by Google on July 13th and Oct 13th.

Here is what the tracking shows so far:

July 13 - 10 million
August 1 - 20.5 million
September 1 - 24.7 million
October 1 - 38 million (Larry Page announced "more than 40m users" on Oct 13th)
November 1 - 43 million
December 1 - 50 million
December 27 - 62 million
January 1 - 65.8 million (forecast)
February 1 - 85.2 million (forecast)

What is really remarkable is that nearly 1/4th of all Google+ users (24.01% to be precise) will have joined in December alone.

If this rate of new signups (625k daily) continues then Google+ will reach 100 million users on Feb. 25th and 200 million users on August 3. They will finish 2012 with 293 million users.

I expect the growth to continue to accelerate however. Google can continue to integrate Google+ into its other products and word of mouth will continue to build. Most importantly, 700,000 Android devices are activated daily and this will become a very significant source of new users for Google+. That number will also grow next year.

As more users sign up, the value of the network will increase for everyone. The network effect will become powerful. See:

It won't be long before new users start encountering family and friends as well as the thriving tech and media sharing community that embraced Google+ early on.

And as more Google+ APIs are released next year, developers will be able to build experiences on top of Google+ and make it even better.

Based on the accelerated growth I'm seeing and all the dials and levers Google can still utilize, and the developer ecosystem that will be developed, I predict that 2012 is going to be a breakout year for Google+ and that it will end next year with more than 400 million users.

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在去年夏天,YouTube推出一項野心十足的電影計畫:邀請全球數千人紀錄自己一天的生活並上傳到YouTube成為一部電影。聽起來不大可能,對吧?不過,結果就是你今天看到的這部長達90分鐘的群眾集體創作紀錄片「一日人生(Life in a Day)」

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BMW 公佈了一份亞洲企業使用 Social Media 進行行銷與顧客交流的統計圖表, 台灣企業簡直是慘不忍睹阿...

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好 High 喔~ 好想參加
和我一起 沈浸在這微醺的世界10/25號晚上七點半 我們G+微醺party上見!

想一起來101大樓73F Google很潮的辦公室 參加微醺party的G友~ 請看這裡的參加辦法喔:
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