Profile

Cover photo
Ilmari Heikkinen
7,291 followers|357,114 views
AboutPostsPhotosYouTube

Stream

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Up in a tree
1
Turma TTI2's profile photo
2 comments
 
Oi sou o Takeda sou desenvolvedor de um produto de qualidade de vida, convidando a conhecer a biocash, e maravilhoso! 
 ·  Translate
Add a comment...

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Shader design work from a few months back.
1
Add a comment...

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Imagine that you're buying the income of a person. They go to work, get paid, pay off their bills, invest into education, bank some money, buy some clothes, and you get to keep what's left. How much would you pay?
1
Add a comment...

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Ah, the British summer. It won't be very warm but at least it's short.
2
Add a comment...

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
With the 1%, 2%, 3%, 3.5% austerity in the EZ/IMF proposal, you'd estimate the Greek GDP to fall an extra 10%. Add in the austerity-driven emigration to the mix with another 10% population fall. Aaand the Greece govt of 2018 would have a 200% debt to GDP, up from current 175%.

At that rate, you're going to hit a point in the '20s where Turkey has a higher GDP/capita than Greece.

Just because EZ finance ministers are, well, not educated in finance. They're lawyers and polisci grads. They don't understand economics or finance (and they can't admit that since, well, they are finance ministers.) If you have, say, a professor of economics speaking in financial terms, they're not going to understand (or admit that.) So you get these weird "How was the proposal?" "Oh they're terrible people" -non-conversations in the media.

And they're not EU-level ministers, they're state-level ministers. So to them this whole thing is just a domestic politics charade and they don't care what the larger consequences are. Just as long as they are seen as winners to the voters at home.

The Greek govt, on the other hand, is not good at reaching a political solution. They might have the financial solution that's best for the creditors and for Greece, but they sell it as "OUR SOLUTION". Which means that it's a non-starter, as the EZ ministers would be seen as "losing" the negotiations by adopting the Greek solution.

For the best proposal to get accepted, it needs to come from the creditors. And it needs to beat a Greek solution, making the EZ win politically and Greece lose politically, while they both win financially.

What is not helping is that the Greek govt thinks that negotiations are about doing concessions. No. Negotiations are about trading. You give one thing but you gain another thing in return. To go concessionary means that you'll get screwed and get nothing in return. Which is what Tsipras is finding out.

Anyway. Let's see how it turns out.
2
Add a comment...
Have him in circles
7,291 people
Jerome S.'s profile photo
HD MELENDEZ (MISTERVIDEOS)'s profile photo
Ivo Limmen's profile photo
hassan waja's profile photo
PRAVEEN KUMAR RATHOD.R's profile photo
Peter Bojanac's profile photo
Bansri Bhatt's profile photo
dima farer's profile photo
Zdeněk Říčný's profile photo

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Shanghai morning walk near Yuyuan Garden
1
Add a comment...

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Alternative timeline: Greek parliament passes the deal, ditto for other EZ parliaments. Post-deal Greece effectively US-style state in EZ, with large degree of policy happening at federal EU level. With the independent monitors in place, EZ can't blame Greece for failed outcomes in implemented policies. EZ & EU under heavy pressure to turn the post-independent Greece into a shining success of federal EU at whatever cost. Uses Greece as an example to other austerity-riddled EZ countries on the benefits on joining the federal EU (and the hell that happens if you don't.) Peripheral EU dominoes into the federal EU. Conquer inwards.

Well. Probably not. Most likely scenario some sort of moderate lose-lose scenario for everyone involved and slow decay of EZ as it hits the windshear from falling to the status of the third largest global economy. See: Japan's lost decade, Soviet Union, British Empire, Germany post-WW1, 19th century China and India.
1
Add a comment...

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Expectations on Greece deal. Likely won't pass Greek parliament, EZ parliaments. Tsipras replaced by someone more radical. Greece starts printing euros to end the bank run (they don't have a Drachma plan in place, so can't pull an overnight currency swap: hence print euros). The Greek euros will be just like euros, but printed in Greece. Greece defaults all remaining outstanding speculative debt instruments.

EU sanctions against Greece. Bank runs in other EZ nations seen as weak as ECB isn't lender of last resort. Other nations also start printing euros. ECB declares national euros as fraudulent currency, in effect creating multiple versions of the euro, all pegged to the German euro. Currency speculators make massive profits by breaking the EZ euro pegs one by one. Network of mutual economic sanctions between EZ countries. EZ breaks up, EU breaks up, NATO breaks up. Global thermonuclear war.

Uh, well, maybe not!
1
Kenneth Cummings's profile photoIlmari Heikkinen's profile photo
2 comments
 
Of course it's not. But does it matter to the Greeks? Euro is their national currency and their debts are denominated in euros. When you have a problem like this, you solve it by printing money.
Add a comment...

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Small number of people buy something that a small number of people sell, then a small number of people write articles to rationalize what just happened. "Oil prices fall on Greek worries", "Oil prices recover on Greek worries".

And I'm watching a number that says what other people have done.
1
Add a comment...

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Currently reading The Three Rules: How Exceptional Companies Think. In which the authors identify drivers for high return on assets, which corresponds to high total shareholder return. The drivers are: "Better before cheap" and "Revenue before cost".

Meaning that when you have to choose between lowering cost vs increasing quality, go for quality. And when you have the choice between increasing sales (either higher price or higher volume) and cutting costs, increase sales. The third rule is that everything else is subservient to these two rules.
1
Add a comment...

Ilmari Heikkinen

Shared publicly  - 
 
Weird thing. Been using a touchscreen Windows laptop at the office for a few months and I like the touchscreen. 
1
Add a comment...
People
Have him in circles
7,291 people
Jerome S.'s profile photo
HD MELENDEZ (MISTERVIDEOS)'s profile photo
Ivo Limmen's profile photo
hassan waja's profile photo
PRAVEEN KUMAR RATHOD.R's profile photo
Peter Bojanac's profile photo
Bansri Bhatt's profile photo
dima farer's profile photo
Zdeněk Říčný's profile photo
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Story
Tagline
Art by code, brush and pen.
Introduction
Built art installations, web sites, graphics libraries, web browsers, mobile apps, desktop apps, media player themes, many nutty prototypes, much bad code, much bad art.

Have freelanced for Verizon, Google, Mozilla, Warner Bros, Sony Pictures, Yahoo!, Microsoft, Valve Software, TDK Electronics.

Ex-Chrome Developer Relations.

Links
Contributor to