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Ilmari Heikkinen
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Ilmari Heikkinen

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Weird thing. Been using a touchscreen Windows laptop at the office for a few months and I like the touchscreen. 
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Ilmari Heikkinen

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Needs to do some machine learning. But first: Markov chains! Ghh
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Ilmari Heikkinen

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Wrote a tiny (bad, wrongly weighed, purely hypothetical, bogus probability distribution) investment portfolio outcome simulator. Monte Carloed my current portfolio and a hypothetical big-companies-doing-well portfolio. Results were quite fun in the managing expectations -way.

Current portfolio results: Most likely scenario: down 30%. Average return: up 6% / up 2x (depending on my level of optimism). Minimum outcome out of 5000 runs: down 90%. Maximum outcome: up 12x. 1% of outcomes returned 10x+ and 20% of outcomes returned 4x+.

As you might imagine, the current portfolio is about "this company is growing fast, well-managed, high on cash, no debt, seems 80% undervalued for some reason" and "oh this company is mired in debt, in crashing economy, with sales tanking, lawsuits, has a big asset of defaulted debt, fraudulent former management, stock price down 99.8% in 3 years, sounds like a winner to me!" and "drilling for oil under the sea, that's the life for me (oil prices tank, wahaha, so does the stock price)". Meaning, high volatility, high potential upside.

The big-companies portfolio simulation came out a bit differently: Most likely outcome was 4% up, average outcome 30% up. Minimum outcome 30% down, maximum outcome 2x up. Good for value preservation in the long-term, but no chance of (quick) big wins. Still, by weighing the portfolio a bit differently, I did manage to up the max to 5x up, at the expense of making the most likely outcome be 4% down.

I don't place much trust in these simulations, but will now brace for the likely 30% loss and plan to survive the 90% loss. And need to pull in some real data for a more representative pool of potential outcomes. 
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Ilmari Heikkinen

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Two new wallpapers in the Opus Live Wallpaper Pack: say hello to the Chrome Sea and Black Sea wallpapers! https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=net.fhtr.android.livewallpaper.opus
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Since they are live wallpapers you should consider sharing gifs or videos instead
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Ilmari Heikkinen

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Spent a few months studying & practising investing. Thinking now: What if you had a supermarket where the prices were moving up and down every day and they also bought stuff? Also, just buy Vanguard S&P 500 Index fund (as long as your broker adds 0% annual charges) and hold it forever. 

Right, back to studying.
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Ilmari Heikkinen

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Get a great website and increase your business with Raade GmbH! These guys do high quality sites in Alpine style & best practices. And for a limited time, you can get 10% off by quoting the promo code MONTAAN. Mail info@raade.at now and ask for a quote!
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Ilmari Heikkinen

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Happy Stars Music Visualizer #shadeADay  https://www.shadertoy.com/view/4tXGDl
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Ilmari Heikkinen

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Hello Dublin! I'm over here for the weekend.
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Finally! An end to this UK see-sawing. For my part, I'd like the federal government to propose a deal where the UK gets to stay if it adopts the euro, phases out the current set of concessions, converts electricity plugs to the continental version and creates media foreign ownership rules in line with the US ones.
Foreign secretary believes Britons will opt to leave union unless EU leaders agree to changes and that in/out referendum campaign could launch in spring 2016
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ST∆RC∆DI∆N
Ultralove
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Pushed new version of Opus Live Wallpaper Pack with a swipe-spinnable Corrupting Cube wallpaper and a toggle for the Happy Stars music visualization.
Get 14 amazing live wallpapers for the price of one!These fully animated li...
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Entering the market at year six of a bull market. This is going to end up in tears~
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Attention! Your comment on the Topics of the Possible Stock Market
Tears! Is 194.6% accurate!
I have saved my monthly
few Skr, since 23/8 1980.
My first paycheck as
Aing Fk Swe Army!
Think before you buy!
Göran Genlt / M.Sc. Swe
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In his circles
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Alex Thomas's profile photo
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Jolyn Bowler's profile photo
Francisco Alves's profile photo
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Luis Lopez's profile photo
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Art by code, brush and pen.
Introduction
Built art installations, web sites, graphics libraries, web browsers, mobile apps, desktop apps, media player themes, many nutty prototypes, much bad code, much bad art.

Have freelanced for Verizon, Google, Mozilla, Warner Bros, Sony Pictures, Yahoo!, Microsoft, Valve Software, TDK Electronics.

Ex-Chrome Developer Relations.

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