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Analyst Payyan
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A quick glance at Kerala’s big parties and the number of seats they contest makes it clear the state is moving towards a four player system  – CPM, INC, CPI and IUML. As it is becoming more evident, any party other than these four do not have the scale to win across the state and in the next few elections will be asking more existential questions. Below is a table of contested seats for top five parties in Kerala.

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Kottayam Assembly Elections - While our analysis lands 3 seats for UDF, 2 for LDF and 4 up in the air, need to note that the three UDF constituencies Palai manned by K.M.Mani, Puthupally won by Oommen Chandy and Changanassery won by intrepid C.F.Thomas are some of the safest seats for UDF in state outside of Malappuram. These three assembly constituencies have a median margin that is tough to overcome for any opponent.  Interestingly CPI has won more seats in the district than CPM partly because of Vaikom which has always favored the former party.

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Predicting Kerala elections.

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Nattika is a swing constituency. In 2011,Geetha Gopi of Communist Party Of India defeated Vikas Chakrapani of Communist Marxist Party by a margin of 16054 votes.

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KB Ganeshkumar Vs Jagadeesh Vs Bheeman Raghu?

Pathanapuram is a strong UDF constituency. In 2011,K. B. Ganesh Kumar of Kerala Congress- Balakrishna Pillai defeated K. Rajagopal of Communist Party Of India- Marxist by a margin of 20402 votes.
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