No, I wasn't kidding. If you look at last year's record, it's easy to expect more of the same.
However, I write about the team, watch every game, and look for what's inside the season. I also study GMs and learned how they view players and the team. The Phillies used a boomerang approach and I said they'd win 10 less games last year: they won 63 after 73 wins in 2014. They would bust their tails in 2016 for jobs, and young guys want that starting job, which equals more wins. I think you get the drift of the boomerang approach.
I looked at the team when they were together, were healthy, got average pitching; and they went 16-6 out of the AS break: 6-3 against the toughest competition: LAD, Cubs, & Rays. Then Franco went down and the streak ended. He was coming out of a slump when HBP. Then, others got injured.
A GM looks at the team when they're healthy, who they played, and how they won. Herrera and Franco were clutch late in the game. There was a camaraderie among the Latin players. They improved the starting pitching but weakened the bullpen. Without pressure, average closers will save 75 percent of their games.