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Kid Mercury

The end of California dreamin'

I'm in Palo Alto now for some potential business. I just don't see how California is going to survive. Ive had that mentality since I left here in 2012, but I feel it's gotten even worse somehow now, and that we are finally at its breaking point. It costs way too much, the state government keeps raising taxes and giving so little back in value. I know the network is here, and that is undeniably a huge source of value, but I think we finally have enough of a network in many other cities to make the California advantage seem smaller -- especially when the costs and lack of government support are considered.

I'm reading Meredith Whitney's book now, fate of the states. In it she talks about how the central corridor of states in the US are in such a better financial state that they will end up drawing migrants from other states that are so financially messed up that they keep raising taxes and see are still unable to improve infrastructure, schools, security, etc.

I think, finally, she will be proven right.

The wrongest I've ever been

I don't think I've been as wrong about anything as I have been about Facebook, which is why I've come to admire the company so much -- though I do find it's trajectory to be creepy and dangerous in some ways.

But I didn't think Facebook, or any social network, could get beyond a few hundred million members, and that niche was a better strategy. I didn't think they could monetize their product well, I didn't think they could exist mobile, I didn't think WhatsApp or Instagram made sense as those acquisition prices.

I think it's reasonable now to say I was entirely wrong on all of that.

The next depression has started

I think it has. Retailers closing en maase I think is the clearest sign. But also interesting is that we are starting to see things like the cryptcurrency bubbles, US tech stocks still soaring, and certain real estate markets soaring. So I don't think this will be a conventional crash that sends everything down. I think, finally, money will start leaking out of public debt and nation state currencies, and this will create a speculative frenzy and price instability everywhere. If so, a great opportunity will exist in bringing about price stability.

About the ethereum flash crash

Yesterday ethereum had a flash crash in which it's value fell by 96% before recovering. Coinbase froze ethereum order execution while this was going on.

A few thoughts:

1. This will happen a lot more often, still a long way to go until things are stable
2. Is ethereum a stable network for coins to be built on top of? I used to think it could be, but after yesterday, and thinking about how much more development it still needs, I wonder if instead the world should be taking the opposite approach: start with wholly independent coins, then connect them through an agreed upon protocol.

Maybe too early to know the answer there.


One of the things I talked about back in the day -- like 8-9 years ago or so -- was hyperinflation.

I thought it would have happened by now, but I still believe it to be likely. The price of housing, food, and financial assets all show it is lurking and ready to emerge. The fed hiking rates could expose the inability of public debt to be paid, and a loss of confidence that will ensue.

US Stocks have a CAPE ratio of what we had in 1987 before the crash, rates are rising, and vix is at the 2007 lows. I believe a breakout is coming, and that the breakout will be higher for stocks and real estate, and lower for bonds and the dollar.

What I got right, what I got wrong

Last week I reviewed my old blog posts (now offline) that talked about my views on virtual currencies about a decade ago.

What I got right, in my opinion:

That internet platforms would issue currencies that would supplant nation states and revolutionize monetary policy, and that this would be an opportunity that creates immense profits and changes the world. Many will say it is too early, but I think at least the rise of cryptcurrency bubbles makes this viewpoint far more likely.

What I got wrong:

I thought virtual currencies would emerge from game economies and leverage game mechanics significantly. I still think this may happen, but at least for now, it does not appear to be a meaningful driver.

I also did not see the blockchain coming. While I still believe the solution that gains adoption will be far more closed -- and already we are seeing trends in that direction in my opinion -- the blockchain is an important technology that could allow for many currencies to work together in a federated way. I think ethereum is already on this path.

Entering the Promised Land

It took me until a few weeks ago to understand that ethereum, or something very much like it, is the promised land -- the fulfillment of the prophecy of entering a golden age, a Utopia. Smart contracts designed natively with the protocol will allow for a revolution in monetary policy and a transition away from the nation state to a world governed by internet platforms. The return of sound money means the potential to solve essentially all of the world's biggest problems, since all of the biggest problems stem from monetary policy. Moreover, it will unleash the business models that disrupt google, Amazon, apple​, etc and unleash a new class of Titans. More importantly, though, the new blockchain Titans will be disrupting nation states, and in doing so will redefine things like nationalism and patriotism.

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AirBNB, the Next Great Real Estate Fund

This elaborates on my last AirBNB post.

If all goes well with their recent product launch and the trajectory continues, they should be in a position where they have the assets to understand what neighborhoods in the US will get rehabbed and see a sharp increase in value. In fact, AirBNB will be in a position to move the market in the direction it sees the most economic benefit. It will then invest its resources into rehabbing and promoting a local market, and will be in a position to profit from every part of it. The company will end up being a shepherd of various neighborhoods in which it has a deep economic interest, and thus those neighborhoods are always well-run, in spite of having high turnover.

There's a lot of synergetically compatible ways the company can make money here. To make the most of it, though, they'll eventually need to challenge local governments more and more, including in uncomfortable areas like law enforcement and security.

Is It Over For Trump?

I think it might be.

The Syrian strike is a total globalist move that empowers the intellience agencies and the military industrial complex they control. Trump's support for intervening to attack Assad is a globalist move. The loss of Flynn and the removal of Bannon from the NSC, while a lot of people say they were planned, concern me in that the removal of the members of the team that seemed most pure to the resistance to the globalist agenda has now coincided with what appears to be pursuit of globalist policy, as expressed by the decision to attack Syria.

So looks like Trump is now becoming a regular military republican, supporting, wittingly or not, globalist policies that wreak economic havoc. He'll lose his core supporters for doing so, which means no one will be passionate about him.

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Pizzagate should be investigated.

Pizzagate should be investigated:

I'm troubled by the refusal of many, even within the kook community, who dismiss this. It seems to me that this whole story will yield multiple feasible routes to take on exposing the global elite pedophile ring that is already widely known about it. The research and potential evidence produced via Pizzagate crowdsourcing is abundant and in my opinion, convincing.
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