Profile

Cover photo
Sebastian “baboo” P.
Worked at T-Online
Attended Technische Universität Darmstadt
Lives in the middle of nowhere
1,464 followers|1,646,513 views
AboutPostsCollections

Stream

 
Probleme des Internets
oder: Wieso "Sharknado" irgendwie was mit der Realität zu tun hat

Stell dir vor, da klopft ein Hai an deiner Haustür und sagt "Wär doch schade, wenn ihrer Internetleitung was passieren würde"..
 ·  Translate
1
Sven W (P2063)'s profile photo
 
Wireshark inspecting your packets
Add a comment...
 
 
There are three companies in the country which run almost all of its private prisons: GEO, CCA, and MTC. This is a plot of the stock prices of the two public ones (GEO and CCA) today, after the Department of Justice announced that the Federal government was done with private prisons: the Deputy AG has directed the department to "substantially reduce" or decline to renew expiring contracts with all of them. [1]

It would be hard to find a set of companies that I would be happier to see fail. If you had to come up with an outrageous example of "perverse incentives," private prisons would top the list: these companies' contracts with states and localities specify minimum numbers of people that these governments must imprison, at which point they are handed over to these companies for use as "free" labor. [2]

One of the key motivating factors for this change was good journalism in action: an investigative reporter went undercover as a guard in a private prisons, and the resulting article is incredibly worth reading. If you haven't, check it out: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/06/cca-private-prisons-corrections-corporation-inmates-investigation-bauer


[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/the-department-of-justice-is-ending-the-use-of-private-prisons-2016-8

[2] Many people don't notice the loophole in the 13th Amendment: "Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction." It took about seven years after the Civil War for people to realize the full economic value of this loophole, that you could arrest people on any charge and then use them as slave labor. Elaborate systems of kickbacks to judges and arrest quotas showed up almost immediately, and have been immensely profitable ever since)
121 comments on original post
1
Add a comment...
 
 
Ich las das mal so stehen. Lesen, verstehen, danach Handeln.
 ·  Translate
Cleaning out the desk drawer. #SunMicrosystems I like to think I've lived up to this @scottmcnealy 10 gr8 yrs 96-06. Embedded image. 2:19 PM - 13 Aug 2016. 81 Retweets149 Likes. Reply to @PowerMan4Evr. Replies. Steven Klassen. 12h12 hours ago. Steven Klassen @mrxinu.
View original post
6
Juergen Nieveler's profile photo
 
"Understand your Roll"?
Add a comment...
 
That moment..
..when your keyboard's prediction makes your eyes wet..
9
Martin Seeger's profile photoLucas Appelmann's profile photo
3 comments
 
All the time... But now my Nexus 7 died as well. Two friends gone...
Add a comment...
 
 
Now this is drone technology I can totally approve of. I hope they can start using it in other nations where it is urgently needed, like Zimbabwe. 
In the technology business, entrepreneurs identify market opportunities in terms of "pain points" -- problems to solve with a new product or service. And "pain" usually just means inconvenience -- like having to shop for groceries or find a taxi.
13 comments on original post
1
Add a comment...
Have them in circles
1,464 people
Modehaus Röttgen's profile photo
Gerrit Ahrendt (Peacecamper)'s profile photo
Sabrina Müller's profile photo
Adam Vass's profile photo
ng bear's profile photo
Serkan Bekdemir's profile photo
Ryan Phoenix (N0rb)'s profile photo
Sourav Mahapatra's profile photo
Science Viking's profile photo
 
 
One of the strange things about discussing police violence in the US is that we simply don't know how much of it there is. Despite what you might expect, police in most states are under no obligation to record and report if a person dies in their custody, or even if they kill someone in the line of duty. Back in 2000, Congress passed a law intended to fix this, but as we'll see in a moment, it hasn't quite worked.

Right now, there are only two national sources of data about this. One is the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) maintained by the FBI, which is a list of homicides by police that have been ruled justified by either local law enforcement or the local FBI. (NB: "homicide" is not the same thing as "murder;" it means the death of a person because of the actions of another, which can include everything from accidents to self-defense to lying in wait with an axe)

The other is the Arrest-Related Deaths (ARD) list maintained by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) at the Department of Justice, created because of this 2000 law. It lists all "persons who died either during the process of arrest or while in the custody of state or local law enforcement personnel." This includes deaths which aren't homicides as well, such as suicides, drug overdoses, or accidents – but since one frequently asks whether a suicide was a suicide or "the worst case of suicide I ever saw, six gunshots to the back of the head," it's not a bad idea to log all of them. (Really, simply logging these things ought to be mandatory)

Unfortunately, ARD data is collected via voluntary compliance of state and local law enforcement – and quite a few states and localities have openly refused to provide any data, while other localities' data has proven to be so full of holes (e.g. by simple comparison to media reports) that it can only be described as a blatant lie. This failure was so severe that in 2014, the BJS suspended the entire ARD program pending a massive review. [1]

Congress is discussing passing a new law which would make reporting mandatory, not optional – but given the current state of Congress, passage is far from certain, and the states' treatment of ARD suggests that without some serious enforcement, deceit would be widespread. You would think that "keep track of everyone who died in the course of your job" would be a pretty reasonable thing to ask of most people, but apparently not.

So given two data sources which are full of massive omissions, you might think that we're SOL in figuring out just what the scale of deaths really is. But it turns out that this is not the only situation in which we face such a problem – and there are ways of dealing with it.

The article below was written by a statistician, a member of a team which analyzes mass deaths around the world: Kosovo, Colombia, Syria, and the like. In each of these cases, there are lists of the dead compiled by various sources, and each of them is tremendously full of holes for various reasons. But when you have multiple flawed lists, you can use statistics to estimate how big the original set might have been.

The article explains how this works in very clear language, but let me give you a taste. Imagine that N total people died, but you don't know N. Instead, you just have two lists, one of A people and one of B people. Now, if there were no correlation between these lists, you would expect that the probability for anyone to be on the B list is B/N. That means that the probability for someone on the A list to be on the B list as well is also B/N, so you expect there to be AB/N people on both lists. But since you know A, B, and the number of people on both lists, you can work out a first guess about N.

The trickier bits come from ways to take into account that the two lists often are correlated; for example, a death with more media attention is far more likely to be reported in both the ARD and SHR than one that goes below the radar. But this is exactly what statisticians have gotten good at for the past twenty-five years, and we can look at how lists like these from around the world do or don't correlate to get a range of how these two lists might relate.

When all is said and done, it's possible to pull out a number: somewhere between 1,250 and 1,500. That's the team's best estimate of the total number of people killed every year in police custody or during arrest in the US. Note that this doesn't try to split up justified versus unjustified deaths, which wouldn't be something you can do from statistics; it just gives us a scale of what's going on.

For comparison, in 2015 there were a total of 16,121 homicides of any sort in the US, [2] so police-involved deaths would account for about 8% of all deaths. But before you get too relaxed, remember that the overwhelming majority – about three quarters, by best estimates – of homicides are committed by people who know each other. (This makes sense; if you sit and make your better-dead list, it's going to contain people you know, not total strangers. People have more reasons to kill people they know.)

This means that roughly one third of all Americans killed by strangers are killed by police. That's an extraordinary number. And while I'll reiterate that this makes no attempt to separate the justified from the unjustified deaths, it does give us a sense of scale, and why the reports of police violence sometimes seem overwhelming.

The next step for such an analysis would be to note that police-related deaths aren't uniformly distributed in the population. We could use similar techniques to estimate what fraction of stranger killings are done by police by race. Without access to the full data [3], I can tell you that the fraction is going to be much higher if you're black, and somewhat lower if you're white. Mental illness is another very strong predictor, although I don't know if we have enough data to estimate the precise effect.

(This reminds me of another interesting article I read, although I can't find the citation right now: while the rate of rape of women is much higher than that of men, the rate of rape by strangers is actually close to equal. The difference for men is almost entirely accounted for by prisons, where (depending on the prison) rape is considered almost a standard part of punishment. A good general rule is that stranger crimes and acquaintance crimes tend to be very different beasts. This makes it somewhat surprising that our laws don't treat the two more differently.)

So if you're ever wondering why some people see death by police as a major risk, this is why. It turns out that, if you're going to be murdered by a stranger, the odds are pretty good that it's going to be a cop.

[1] For more, see http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=82
[2] See http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm . CDC statistics about death are really interesting.
[3] I can't give you a back-of-the-envelope answer, because the most naive calculation – using that most statistics of the form "black people are X times more likely than white people to encounter [negative event] with the police" seem to come up with X's around 3 – would tell you that all of them are, which is clearly false. So real statistics work is required, preferably done by real statisticians.
‘One-third of all Americans killed by strangers are killed by police.’ Patrick Ball measures the undocumented police killings in the United States.
54 comments on original post
1
Add a comment...
 
 
Borrowed from the other place:
"As it turns out, Donald Trump quotes make a lot more sense when you imagine Zapp Brannigan saying them."
4 comments on original post
6
Jan Krieblin (Sephothtarte)'s profile photo
 
Wo man recht hat. 
 ·  Translate
Add a comment...
 
Liebe +GMX/+GMX (ja wer ist denn nu richtig?)..

..ist ja total toll, daß ihr mir anzeigt, daß es zwei fehlgeschlagene Login-Versuche in meinem Account gab.. Das ist aber recht nutzlos, wenn ich keine Chance habe, mir meine Login-Historie anzeigen zu lassen um nachvollziehen zu können, woher das denn kam..
 ·  Translate
1
Add a comment...
Sebastian's Collections
People
Have them in circles
1,464 people
Modehaus Röttgen's profile photo
Gerrit Ahrendt (Peacecamper)'s profile photo
Sabrina Müller's profile photo
Adam Vass's profile photo
ng bear's profile photo
Serkan Bekdemir's profile photo
Ryan Phoenix (N0rb)'s profile photo
Sourav Mahapatra's profile photo
Science Viking's profile photo
Work
Employment
  • T-Online
    Network Specialist, 2002 - 2004
  • HRZ TU-Darmstadt
    Azubi FI-SI, 1998 - 2001
  • Transcom
    IT, 2001 - 2002
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
the middle of nowhere
Story
Tagline
Musing about corporate policies, "agile" and all kind of catcontent. Bring your own tin foil hat.
Introduction
"The trouble with quotes on the internet is that it’s difficult to discern whether or not they are genuine.” 
- Abraham Lincoln
Education
  • Technische Universität Darmstadt
    1998 - 2001