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Thomas Magee
Molecular Biologist trying to find answers.
Molecular Biologist trying to find answers.

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The American dream/nightmare

We were sold a dream - that we could all be free, and live peacefully and prosperously in a happy unity. We each can own a home, have a good job, and if we work hard we will be rewarded. This dream is merely propaganda, a utopian society the state promises to provide and never actually delivers. That dream is becoming our nightmare.

We used to have a much simpler dream - liberty. That dream ended soon after the Whiskey rebellion, which was crushed by Washington himself. Since then, our glorious nation has become better & better at stealing our liberty from us.

Every day, new laws are enacted, regulation costs rise, and so does our individual tax burden. All those costs eventually get passed down to us, the consumer. Every civil suit waged against police malfeasance is money out of our own pockets, as is every grand jury whitewash. Every internal investigation, every congressional hearing over malfeasance to point the finger of blame, burns through our wealth. Every day, our futures and our children's futures are being decided on by men we've never met, while our labours are stripped from us at gunpoint to fund wars and a military empire overseas. Each missile fired is hundreds of thousands of dollars being incinerated.

The system hemorrhages currency at every step, and yet we continue to believe it works. That money was ours - a representation of our labour, our previously spent time. That's what money really is in the end - your past efforts, rendered in some physical form. All that stored time is constantly being stolen from you, from me, and from anyone else who cannot afford offshore accounts.

We have the ability to end this nightmare, to awaken from this madness, and actually regain our original dreams of liberty. We first no longer can afford to be divided by our hate. We all must Stop blindly following these snake oil salesmen and women called politicians. Accept the responsibility of your actions. Stop relying on the state to provide you with anything, and look elsewhere for solutions to your needs. Or come up with your own solutions. Whatever you do, just remember you can be free or be a slave, but you can't be both. 

I've decided to stop posting each week on this site. The basic reason is every time I try to post a pic of the results it crashes. It started with the recent big update of Google Plus. Not sure why but it's so frustrating that it's not worth it anymore. I will post occasionally on other sites about leveraged ETFs. My system is still working well. Just can't post about it here. 

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2016 January 29h year to date results

Leveraged ETFs have finished the month significantly down but the pickup on Thursday and Friday reversed some of the decline. Need a lot more of that. Hard to say what will happen in February. If we really are in a new recession it won't be good but that may be overblown. The economy is still ok for now.

Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ -21.13%
TNA -25.31%
SPXL -15.67%

versus SPY -4.98%

My swing trading is not working at all for January. The hyper volatility is not being caught very well by the system. Ended up with a record monthly loss of 22%. The previous worst month was last September at 18%. Oh well. Just sticking with it and we will see what February holds. Below are the trades for this first month. The 8.73% loss on a single trade was also a record. Only a few decent trades. The bad ones were especially bad. Mostly due to huge overnight volatility. 

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2016 January 24th year to date results

Tried to post earlier today and lost it all. Google + sucks. Briefly, looks like market is headed back up but losses are still extreme. Will see where we are at end of month.


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2016 January 15th year to date results

Leveraged ETFs are super bad so far. Just like everything else but amplified. Will see what the next couple weeks hold. Could reverse up. We are probably near a bottom but not quite there yet.

Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ -27.78%
TNA -30.63%
SPXL -22.65%

versus SPY -7.88%

Swing trading is not doing well other than that first week or so of January. Unfortunately the daily swings are not being caught for the most part. My system is a little slow. Market is back to moving strongly overnight so I wake up with a losing position. If I factor in the large gain at the beginning of January I am up 14% overall for the year so far but taking that out and I'm down 10%. 

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2016 January 8th year to date results

Not good at all for leveraged ETFs. The selloff began on Dec 29th and has been pretty tough. Still, these things happen. Looking forward it's likely we are getting close to the bottom starting next week. At least a bounce.

Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ -19.99%
TNA -22.05%
SPXL -16.99%

versus SPY -5.86%

My swing trading for the past week was fantastic. On Dec 30th I moved into #SQQQ and so far there has not been any trigger to move into TQQQ. Very unusual. As you can see below, being on the correct side of a trend can really work out. The last time this happened was in August last year. In that move SQQQ went up 40%. I ended up making about 28% by the time the signal was triggered.

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2015 End of year results for TQQQ/SQQQ swing trading

Swing trading following my system worked pretty well. My system is described in a couple earlier posts and is actually pretty easy to follow. It is based on using indicators PMO and MACD for TQQQ, SQQQ, VIX, VXN, and VXX. When it swings to a long position I buy TQQQ and a short position I buy SQQQ.

It worked very well in the first half of the year and then less so for the second half of the year. There was increased daily volatility in the second half and my system doesn't perform as well. I made money every month except September which was done 16%. The best month was a tie between Jan and Aug both at about 38% up. Overall the monthly return was 15%. For the year the swing trading was up 357% due to compounding or rolling over each trade.

I am planning on continuing the system for 2016. If volatility continues I may tweak it a little bit but will report any changes to the system. I hate to fix something that basically isn't broken but we will see.

One lesson I did learn this year is to stick with it religiously. Often my emotion or gut feeling will tell me that I should do something different than the system but I found it works much better just to follow it as closely as possible.

Results are shown below for all trades in 2015.


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Long Term Buy and Hold Results for #LeveragedETFs

As seen on the attached chart, the 3 and 5 year annualized returns are quite good for Leveraged ETFs. Some argue that since they don't give exactly 3X results that they are defective product. I don't agree. I simply ask...can I make more money long term in Leveraged ETFs than in most other ETFs or stocks. Yes, case closed.

One additional comment. The reason they don't reach 3X is due to volatility during the year. This past year was extremely volatile, especially the second half of the year. In years when the market trends up slowly the leveraged returns can actually be more than 3X.


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2015 End of year results

For the leveraged ETFs I follow, the year was pretty much a bust except for #TQQQ.

Buy and hold results for 2015:
TQQQ 17.22%
TNA -21.50%
SPXL -5.52%

versus SPY -0.81% result without dividends; with div is +1.38%.

For the broader market, represented as SPY, this flattish-negative year is not at all surprising. There have been six positive years with 5 being up double digits. At some point we will have a negative year and it showed up for 2015. I pointed out in an earlier post that the market is up about 75% for any reasonable time period. This is why it makes sense to be invested in Leveraged ETFs. Yes they can go down but over time you will do well.

Will report some long term data in a follow up post.


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2015 December 25th year to date results

A decent up week as expected due to the usual Santa Clause rally. #TQQQ went up by about 8% for the week. On the other hand, the market clearly hasn't favored small caps this year. #TNA is down 17%.

Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ 19.51%
TNA -17.33%
SPXL -3.10%

versus SPY 0.07%

My swing trading has been going well enough in December after a few initial losses. No trades this past week but should end up moving to the short side next week. 
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