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Thomas Magee
Works at Charles R Drew University
Attended Hickman Mills High School
Lives in Cypress, CA
46 followers|637,595 views
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Thomas Magee
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Favorite Leveraged ETF  - 
 
I've decided to stop posting each week on this site. The basic reason is every time I try to post a pic of the results it crashes. It started with the recent big update of Google Plus. Not sure why but it's so frustrating that it's not worth it anymore. I will post occasionally on other sites about leveraged ETFs. My system is still working well. Just can't post about it here. 
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Thomas Magee
owner

Discussion  - 
 
2016 January 29h year to date results

Leveraged ETFs have finished the month significantly down but the pickup on Thursday and Friday reversed some of the decline. Need a lot more of that. Hard to say what will happen in February. If we really are in a new recession it won't be good but that may be overblown. The economy is still ok for now.

Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ -21.13%
TNA -25.31%
SPXL -15.67%

versus SPY -4.98%

My swing trading is not working at all for January. The hyper volatility is not being caught very well by the system. Ended up with a record monthly loss of 22%. The previous worst month was last September at 18%. Oh well. Just sticking with it and we will see what February holds. Below are the trades for this first month. The 8.73% loss on a single trade was also a record. Only a few decent trades. The bad ones were especially bad. Mostly due to huge overnight volatility. 
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Thomas Magee
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Discussion  - 
 
2016 January 15th year to date results

Leveraged ETFs are super bad so far. Just like everything else but amplified. Will see what the next couple weeks hold. Could reverse up. We are probably near a bottom but not quite there yet.

Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ -27.78%
TNA -30.63%
SPXL -22.65%

versus SPY -7.88%

Swing trading is not doing well other than that first week or so of January. Unfortunately the daily swings are not being caught for the most part. My system is a little slow. Market is back to moving strongly overnight so I wake up with a losing position. If I factor in the large gain at the beginning of January I am up 14% overall for the year so far but taking that out and I'm down 10%. 
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Also had my 2nd largest loss on a trade at 6.4%. The largest was last September at 6.7%
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Thomas Magee
owner

Discussion  - 
 
2015 End of year results for TQQQ/SQQQ swing trading

Swing trading following my system worked pretty well. My system is described in a couple earlier posts and is actually pretty easy to follow. It is based on using indicators PMO and MACD for TQQQ, SQQQ, VIX, VXN, and VXX. When it swings to a long position I buy TQQQ and a short position I buy SQQQ.

It worked very well in the first half of the year and then less so for the second half of the year. There was increased daily volatility in the second half and my system doesn't perform as well. I made money every month except September which was done 16%. The best month was a tie between Jan and Aug both at about 38% up. Overall the monthly return was 15%. For the year the swing trading was up 357% due to compounding or rolling over each trade.

I am planning on continuing the system for 2016. If volatility continues I may tweak it a little bit but will report any changes to the system. I hate to fix something that basically isn't broken but we will see.

One lesson I did learn this year is to stick with it religiously. Often my emotion or gut feeling will tell me that I should do something different than the system but I found it works much better just to follow it as closely as possible.

Results are shown below for all trades in 2015.

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Thomas Magee
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Discussion  - 
 
2015 December 25th year to date results

A decent up week as expected due to the usual Santa Clause rally. #TQQQ went up by about 8% for the week. On the other hand, the market clearly hasn't favored small caps this year. #TNA is down 17%.


Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ 19.51%
TNA -17.33%
SPXL -3.10%

versus SPY 0.07%

My swing trading has been going well enough in December after a few initial losses. No trades this past week but should end up moving to the short side next week. 
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Thomas Magee
owner

Discussion  - 
 
2015 December 4th year to date results

A wild week for #LeveragedETFs . A big down day followed up an up day. Overall a wash although #TQQQ was up about 3%. All due to Yellen comments.

Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ 27.54%
TNA -10.48%
SPXL 1.52%

versus SPY 1.99%

My swing trading for the past week was down and not going well. The daily chop has been pretty frustrating. 
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Have him in circles
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Thomas Magee
owner

Discussion  - 
 
2016 January 24th year to date results

Tried to post earlier today and lost it all. Google + sucks. Briefly, looks like market is headed back up but losses are still extreme. Will see where we are at end of month.


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Thomas Magee
owner

Discussion  - 
 
2016 January 8th year to date results

Not good at all for leveraged ETFs. The selloff began on Dec 29th and has been pretty tough. Still, these things happen. Looking forward it's likely we are getting close to the bottom starting next week. At least a bounce.

Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ -19.99%
TNA -22.05%
SPXL -16.99%

versus SPY -5.86%

My swing trading for the past week was fantastic. On Dec 30th I moved into #SQQQ and so far there has not been any trigger to move into TQQQ. Very unusual. As you can see below, being on the correct side of a trend can really work out. The last time this happened was in August last year. In that move SQQQ went up 40%. I ended up making about 28% by the time the signal was triggered.
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Thomas Magee
owner

Discussion  - 
 
Long Term Buy and Hold Results for #LeveragedETFs

As seen on the attached chart, the 3 and 5 year annualized returns are quite good for Leveraged ETFs. Some argue that since they don't give exactly 3X results that they are defective product. I don't agree. I simply ask...can I make more money long term in Leveraged ETFs than in most other ETFs or stocks. Yes, case closed.

One additional comment. The reason they don't reach 3X is due to volatility during the year. This past year was extremely volatile, especially the second half of the year. In years when the market trends up slowly the leveraged returns can actually be more than 3X.


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Thomas Magee
owner

Discussion  - 
 
2015 End of year results

For the leveraged ETFs I follow, the year was pretty much a bust except for #TQQQ.

Buy and hold results for 2015:
TQQQ 17.22%
TNA -21.50%
SPXL -5.52%

versus SPY -0.81% result without dividends; with div is +1.38%.

For the broader market, represented as SPY, this flattish-negative year is not at all surprising. There have been six positive years with 5 being up double digits. At some point we will have a negative year and it showed up for 2015. I pointed out in an earlier post that the market is up about 75% for any reasonable time period. This is why it makes sense to be invested in Leveraged ETFs. Yes they can go down but over time you will do well.

Will report some long term data in a follow up post.

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Thomas Magee
owner

Discussion  - 
 
2015 December 18th year to date results

Volatility in spades.

Buy and hold results for the year:
TQQQ 11.59%
TNA -24.56%
SPXL -10.91%

versus SPY -2.69%

My swing trading has been ok. Catching at least some of the volatility. Even so December has been a weak 4% gain so far.
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People
Have him in circles
46 people
Tasmia Henry's profile photo
Atheist Republic's profile photo
Dayprotraders's profile photo
Morgan Giddings's profile photo
Shawn H Corey's profile photo
Kimberly Magee's profile photo
L Belkacemi's profile photo
Leo Wolf's profile photo
Mark8 Traders's profile photo
Work
Occupation
Teacher and Scientist
Employment
  • Charles R Drew University
    Assistant Professor, 2012 - present
  • LA BIOMED
    Scientist, 1995 - 2012
  • UCLA
    Postdoctoral Fellow, 1990 - 1995
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Cypress, CA
Previously
Kansas City, MO - Albuquerque, NM - Culver City, CA - Harbor City, CA - Columbia, MO
Links
Story
Tagline
Molecular Biologist trying to find answers.
Introduction
I teach at a University and also conduct research. My interests are new teaching methods, critical thinking, leadership training, and my research on fetal programming. My primary hobby is investing and trading leveraged ETFs. 
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Education
  • Hickman Mills High School
    1981
  • University of Missouri-Columbia
    Microbiology, 1981 - 1985
  • University of New Mexico
    Molecular Biology, 1985 - 1990
Basic Information
Gender
Male