Profile

Cover photo
Daniel Povey
Worked at Johns Hopkins University
Attended Peterhouse, Cambridge
Lives in Baltimore, MD
590 followers|222,564 views
AboutPostsPhotosYouTubeReviews

Stream

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
The BBC has a story on Medicins Sans Frontieres and their ship that picks up migrants in the sea and brings them to Europe.

Obviously you can make a compelling case on compassionate grounds that this is the right thing, and no-one would want to have to look a migrant in the face and say "I choose to leave you here to die in the sea". But I don't think I would choose to do what they are doing.

Every day more people are born- people that the global economy cannot properly absorb, often people with characteristics that make them hard to integrate into stable, developed societies. Essentially no countries have implemented mechanisms to limit population growth. Countries in the developed world are comfortably able to provide for the needs of their people, but every additional person [depending on the individual, of course] makes it harder in the long term, and countries can slip further back from developed status. A Germany can become an Italy, an Italy can become a Greece, a Greece can become a Turkey, a Turkey can become a Morocco, a Morocco can become a Libya.

I think that in the current environment, we need to actually maintain the inequality between countries. If everything were perfecctly equalized, I think the only likely outcome is that no country would be prosperous and stable.

Of course I'm not against migration in general-- the right kinds of migrants can make countries richer and happier-- but we need to accept that there is no realistic path that avoids large-scale poverty, disease and suffering in the medium term. By doing a favor to one person you are often doing a disservice to others [although a disservice that's often so widely distributed and probabilistic as to be hard to perceive]

http://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36969014
The BBC's Chris Buckler joins a rescue ship, operated by the charity Medecins Sans Frontieres.
1
Yi Su's profile photo
Yi Su
 
Also it incentivizes swimming in the sea. :)
Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-36861840
Article says that, like Omar Mateen, the Nice attacker was bisexual.
Someone should create a spoof ISIS advert playing up the male camaraderie, suggesting it's a great organization for gay men to join.
Of course it's a bit of a low blow, the equivalent of saying "that's so gay"-- but making noise about an association between jihadism and homosexuality might actually dissuade the kinds of people who are tempted by jihadism.
In the aftermath of mass killings by lone attackers in Orlando and Nice, we take a look at the links between domestic violence, sexual identity and radicalisation.
1
Ahmet A. Akın's profile photoDaniel Povey's profile photoFares Menasri's profile photo
3 comments
 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34996604 """Mass shootings: There were 372 mass shootings in the US in 2015, killing 475 people and wounding 1,870, according to the Mass Shooting Tracker, which catalogues such incidents. A mass shooting is defined as a single shooting incident which kills or injures four or more people, including the assailant."""

More than 1 mass shooting per day on average.
Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 

Damn. Coups are the kinds of things you have to do right, or not at all.
If the coup ends up failing, then these guys have burned down the Reichstag for Erdogan without him having to lift a finger.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/15/world/live-blog-turkey/index.html
A military coup attempt is underway in Turkey. Tanks and soldiers are on the streets, protesters are mustering forces, with gunfire and explosions punctuating the chaos.
1
Ahmet A. Akın's profile photoDaniel Povey's profile photo
4 comments
 
Very interesting article on Gulen.
Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
I have a theory that Stonehenge was actually a 31-dash line, much more ancient and infinitely more sacred than China's 9-dash line. Everything inside the line belonged to the gods, and everything outside belonged to the British government. Brittania rule the waves!

http://cdn.history.com/sites/2/2015/04/hith-stonehenge-superhenge-iStock_000012937253Large-E.jpeg
1
Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
I just found out about this song...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBXvBP6y-I0
I don't really follow country music, but this one is really good.
1
Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
The Bangladesh attackers said "god wants you to die". Although this is theologically a bit dubious (in Mohammed's lifetime, people were usually given the opportunity to convert to Islam before being killed), it's quite clear that in both Christianity and Islam, an eternity of suffering awaits nonbelievers. So surely killing them is small change. People act like we shouldn't throw out the baby with the bathwater, but what do we do when the baby is evil?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/03/asia/bangladesh-terror-attack-moments/index.html
3
Daniel Povey's profile photoAhmet A. Akın's profile photo
4 comments
 
+Daniel Povey Of course probably some/many of those conversions after the conquest of Mecca was not voluntary. Some historians blame the later atrocities caused by Umayyad tribalism to those fake conversions.

Also, yes that Hadith is quite famous (I am surprised you knew), and correct, when the norm was being killed after the war that is a preferable choice. However, even that event happened with the heat of battle probably. Because AFAIK POW's were not slain in Mohammad's life time.
Add a comment...
In his circles
336 people
Have him in circles
590 people
Kothari Rangarao's profile photo
filipp korkmazsky's profile photo
Aistė Gardauskaitė's profile photo
Mark Johnson's profile photo
Alex Dalyac's profile photo
Eugenio Culurciello's profile photo
Yoav Goldberg's profile photo
Filip Jurcicek's profile photo
Sri Harish Mallidi's profile photo

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
I think Hillary's campaign should create some kind of sticker specifically for Bernie supporters-- a sticker that says, not in so many words, "I wanted Bernie but I voted for Hillary anyway". Bernie supporters feel a need to publicly differentiate themselves from regular Hillary supporters. If Hillary's campaign can meet that psychological need while still getting the vote of Bernie supporters, it would help them win. And by acknowledging that Hillary does not really excite voters, it may add a much-needed note of authenticity to the campaign.

If you agree, +1, this post or come up with a draft sticker-- if enough people do so, it may get the attention of the campaign.
4
Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 

People are starting to speculate that the Turkish coup was staged, and I'm wondering if he's explicitly following Hitler's playbook. The coup included bombing the parliament building-- something which can't have had any value, symbolic or otherwise, for real coup plotters. Now Erdogan is declaring a state of emergency, which is exactly what happened after the Reichstag fire.

And he's arrested 50k people. It takes a while to make a list that long, and it doesn't seem like the chaotic moments after a real coup would be conducive to compiling such an extensive list.

It seems that most historians think the Reichstag fire was actually started by communists without Nazi help, but maybe Erdogan didn't want to leave it to chance this time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire
1
Fernando Pereira's profile photoAhmet A. Akın's profile photo
2 comments
 
I was not expecting a coup at all and was very surprised with this event. But later on, especially reading some of the coup army officials statements I am quite convinced that albeit suicidal, this was a real attempt. There are many reasons why it failed such as
- Intelligency agency was notified at 4pm that a coup will take place so they tried to block it. This resulted coup to be started prematurely. They were intending to do it at 3am, now they started at 10 pm. This is probably the main reason why it failed.
- Not much human resources. Unlike coup of 1980, this was not backed by the majority of the army. That is why they tried to control the army first.
- They were probably not expecting this much civil resistance.

Also probably some factions in the army decided not to participate at the last moment, but that is also a theory.

To me, people are forcing `staged` theories are looking at the outcome of the coup attempt and so trying to find clues supporting the theory. There is also confirmation bias.

Such clues seem weak. For example.

People in those lists were probably known for two years after the events of 2013-2014. It may seem suspicious by outsiders, but nobody in Turkey surprised by it.

The plane was flying with a civilian flight code, At the time there were probably other planes in the air or landing (check the map and the route http://www.karar.com/gundem-haberleri/tc-ata-ucagi-havada-bekliyor-188359 ). The flight tower also gave information on the whereabouts of coup jet. Seems like there was only one such jet over bosphorus at the time. It is more likely that they were not sure who to shot down (if they had the order to shut down). This is a simpler and provable explanation.

Surely government will take full advantage of this, but I guess this is the expected behavior. On the state emergency, France also declared that recently. This is not unexpected. If coup would have been successful probably there would be martial law.

This event must not have happened at all.


Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
I fear the zombie apocalypse may be upon us.
While walking outside today in Redmond, WA I saw groups of people gathered in unlikely places, mostly standing still and not interacting with each other. All of them had the slumped shoulders and blank expressions of the undead.
When I looked more closely, I saw that they all had smartphones in their hands with little animated characters on their screens.
9
Eugenio Culurciello's profile photoHossein Hadian's profile photo
2 comments
 
That was a very interesting way of describing Pokemon Go.
Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
Yay!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/turkey-low-flying-jets-and-gunfire-heard-in-ankara1/

Coup in turkey. It's rare that breaking news is good news, but this is.
<ul> <li><strong>Coup attempt by parts of Turkish military against Erdogan</strong></li> <li><strong>PM Yildirim:
1
Ian Boardman's profile photoDaniel Povey's profile photo
3 comments
 
Bad news... not clear if the coup will succeed. Looks like Erdogan's support base may have been too large. We can expect a big purge of the military and police and justice systems, and a clampdown on secular society, if the coup fails.
Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
Apparently the DNC has agreed to (eventually) make it part of its platform to introduce a $15/hour national minimum wage.
Economists tend to say minimum wages are an OK idea as long as they are not too high, so I had a look to see whether $15 is a reasonable value based on other countries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_minimum_wages_by_country
According to Wikipedia, in nominal terms only Australia has a higher minimum wage at $15.58 US (although when I searched for the current AUS minimum wage and converted it to US dollars it was $13 or so). And in PPP terms only San Marino is highest, at $12.55 (and it's not clear that micro-states are good precedent).
So yeah, $15 seems a bit high.
1
Dan Bikel's profile photoDaniel Povey's profile photo
2 comments
 
It doesn't look good that way either. Taking Australia as an example because of its relatively high minimum wage (which is about $13 in US dollars), its GDP per capita is actually about 20% higher than the US.
There are many countries on that list with minimum wages higher than, or approaching, 100% of GDP per capita, but they are typically 3rd world countries and places like Argentina that one would not want to emulate.
Add a comment...

Daniel Povey

Shared publicly  - 
 
I think people are judging Blair too harshly on Iraq because they have the benefit of hindsight. It seems that he really did believe that by toppling Saddam, they would spread the Western values of freedom, democracy and liberalism. At that time there was a widespread belief in the inevitability of those values spreading around the world.

(I'm not including Bush in that statement. Bush was a dumbass that no business being in the White House).

Remember, that was not long after Francis Fukuyama had published "The End of History and the Last Man", which claimed that modern Western values represented the final point of human social evolution and the rest of history would consist of other societies gradually accepting those values and thereby reaching the pinnacle of human achievement. It was always a stupid idea, but the point is that there was a moment in history where one could write such a book and be taken seriously.

Which is not to throw shade on modern liberal values, they are perfectly nice, but human motivations and thought processes are complex and hard to predict, and modern liberal values are not like a scientific truth that one can prove (and which, therefore, one could expect all sufficiently intelligent beings to accept).

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36722312
Memos sent between former UK PM Tony Blair and then US President George W Bush in the run-up to the Iraq War shine a light on the relationship between the two leaders.
1
Fares Menasri's profile photoDaniel Povey's profile photo
2 comments
 
+Fares Menasri - tell me you current GPS co-ordinates, bro.
Add a comment...
People
In his circles
336 people
Have him in circles
590 people
Kothari Rangarao's profile photo
filipp korkmazsky's profile photo
Aistė Gardauskaitė's profile photo
Mark Johnson's profile photo
Alex Dalyac's profile photo
Eugenio Culurciello's profile photo
Yoav Goldberg's profile photo
Filip Jurcicek's profile photo
Sri Harish Mallidi's profile photo
Work
Employment
  • Johns Hopkins University
    Research Scientist
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Baltimore, MD
Links
Story
Introduction
Dan Povey, speech recognition researcher
Education
  • Peterhouse, Cambridge
    1993
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Good place and reasonable prices. The owner is very nice.
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
4 reviews
Map
Map
Map