Shared publicly  - 
 
If Microsoft manages to get Samsung pay even $10 per Android handset, well, that may spell the beginning of the end of Android ascendance. Microsoft isn't even the biggest patent holder in mobile.

Quick, back of the envelope calculation about possible future Android IP costs for anyone who dares do make an Android device.

$10 per patent pool holder. Oracle, MSFT, RIM (after Nortel), Nokia, HP/Palm and Apple just to start with. That's already at least $60 per Android device. Not counting patent trolls like Lodsys or Nathan Myhrvold's Intellectual Ventures standing in line.

It will be very taxing even for top end Android devices like Galaxy S2 or HTC Sensation. And practically shuts out Android of the low to mid end mass market.

I also do not see any way Google can eat $60 per device cost themselves. And none of the competitors are really interested in money. Only to destroy or at least slow down Android, so there's not really much room for negotiation there.

Things do really look f%^&ked up here. I hope Google's got some really big ace up it's sleeve and will soon produce a rabbit out of the hat that will make these issues go away or at least manageable.

And if they loose, and competitors manage to kill off Android with patents, I hope enough people in U.S. government have and love their Androids by then, to make them wake up and finally do some real patent reform.
2
Ivan Vodchenko's profile photoVille Vainio's profile photoDavid Caabeiro's profile photoStasys Bielinis's profile photo
23 comments
 
Думаю покупка RIM поможет выиграть им патентную войну.
 
Патентную войну, а не с кем :)
 
Google has an option of dropping some features from android to eliminate the use of patented technologies, offering the option for samsung et al to choose between free and "full" version of android. I believe this is what will happen. People can add the features through separately installable apps.
 
Voina vediotsia vsiotaki skem to :) RIM tam popraigrala srazhenije s patent trollom kogdato. No eto pozadi. RIM schas na voine za vyzhyvanije gde Nokia uzhe sdalas. QNX pomzhet ili net. Skoreje nepomozhet, pozdnovotao uzhe. No posmotrim
 
@Ville Vainio Nope. They do not have it. Oracle's suit, MSFT stuff, and stuff others will bring forward - it will render Android useless if the patents are found valid
 
+Stasys Bielinis вот так выглядит ответ кстати :) (глянь у меня в ленте есть расширение для хрома которое кнопку реплай добавляет :)) RIM обладает солидным пакетом патентов. Приобретение ее защитит Google от последующих атак.
 
At least the msft stuff can be worked around by removing features, I imagine - at least up to the point where only patents that are highly likely to be invalid remain.

The oracle problem is a bigger one, but oracle does not want to kill android, so negotiations in that space are possible (e.g. lower fees for cheap phones).

Personally, I wouldn't mind if this debacle created new interest in building solutions around meego (even on arm chipsets).
 
I'm not a lawyer by any means, but I'd like to see the outcome of the Oracle case first. So far I wouldn't say things look very promising for Oracle considering 17 out of 21 claims were rejected by the US Patent Office (see http://www.javaworld.com/javaworld/jw-06-2011/110623-oracle-patent-claim-takes-a-hit.html)
And regarding Nortel, I'd be interested to see possible outcomes if it's shown that the sole purpose of acquiring those patents was simply trying to boycott Android..
 
+Ivan Vodchenko Propretenije RIM? Oni skoreje Motorolu preobretut :)
 
все никак не напишу "аналитику" на этот счет ;)
 
+Ville Vainio Can it? Some pretty basic stuff there. And Oracle doe not want to kill Android. THey are the only one's who want just money. Problem is that with their cut and the rest - Android will just stop working? As fast as it got up there - it can get down as fast
 
Do you have a list of msft claims somewhere?
 
+David Caabeiro Oracle - there's the main fight is about some "720" patent I think, something to do with how you translate stuff in memory. No idea how that will work out. Oracle may even license it. But only MSFT and Apple brought their big guns to the fight yet. When they do, it's gonna get ugly. Nortel stuff notwithstanding
 
+Ivan Vodchenko Eldaru pro patenty - tam mozhet poluchitsia interesnaja discussija. Osobenno posle ego reakcii na Apple/ Samsung thing.
 
Вряд ли я смогу вызвать у него хоть какой-то интерес ;)
 
Ainakin nuo patentit joihin linkissa viitataan olisivat kierrettavissa...
 
+Ivan Vodchenko NU, u vas tam svoji pravila obchenija. Ja tam eti perepalki po russkomu: Eldar-Turubar +Riabinin i drugije protiv onolitega chitaju kak Santa Barbaru.

Da i sam na pochozhoju pochti vviazalsia: http://www.staska.net/2011/07/07/telling-me-to-fk-off-calling-skype-boycott-qs-utter-rubish%E2%80%9D-deleting-all-my-comments-tomiahonen-thank-you/

No u nas eto navernoje eto vsio tut i zakonchitsia. On menia obidel, vyskazal vsio chto ja dumaju i chvatit, nechevo tut Sanat Barbaru iz etogo delat
 
+Ivan Vodchenko voobsche to nichevo protiv choroshey argumentirovannoj perepalki neimeju. Sam dazhe liubliu pouchastvovat. NO kogda oponenty nachinajut pridumyvat imena vrode onoliteg ili (kak obizhennyje NOkia fanboys po angliiski -eldork). Eto nachinaet zvuchat kak etot durackij krik "Sam durak" kogda nechego bolshe skazat i diskussija zakanchivajetsa
 
Damn, another quick back of the envelope calculation: at $60 a pop, it would be 80 million android devices sold for 4.8B. Less then a years production to Google now. Why the F they gave up at 4.5B for Nortel?
 
+David Caabeiro Agreed. Regulators will be looking heavily into this bid. And might force some restrictions on patent rights, to make patent licensing terms more easier for other companies. On the other hand, proving some sort of collusion might be difficult at this point. Especially if there were no stupid e-mails exchanged in consortium negotiations.

Apple is pretty weak in wireless IP arena, as the deal with Nokia proves - so they did really need Nortel patents, probably almost as much as Google did. RIM too probably can easily demonstrate some legit needs for these patents, EMC,Ericsson are probably after infrastructure parts, and Sony - it might be mobile, might be defensive measure. The only really questionable participant in winning consortium is Microsoft
Add a comment...