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Ariel Kahan
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Ariel Kahan

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Makes sense; Looking for an outdoor version!
Kadet: In the age of e-mail, a treadmill desk makes a daffy kind of sense.
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Ariel Kahan

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Amazing pictures - what a year!
The 45 Most Powerful Images Of 2011: What a year it has been! Here's to 2012 being a more quiet and less destructive year...
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Ariel Kahan

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Really cool - who would've thought a thermostat could be that awesome?
Can gorgeous design, learning algorithms and millions in venture capital funding make a simple home thermostat as coveted as the iPhone? If anyone can achieve such a lofty goal it's Tony Fadell, the g...
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Ariel Kahan

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Now there's an iOS app for that too...

The FBI just released an app for accelerating the search for missing children (iPhone, iPod touch, and iPad):
http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/fbi-child-id/id446158585?ls=1&mt=8
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Ariel Kahan

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Even if the model is inaccurate - growth of connections & activity is very impressive so far.
Paul Allen originally shared:
 
Google+ To Pass 10,000,000 Users Tomorrow (on 7/12)

As I promised on Saturday night, I have finished updating my Google+ membership model with new data and re-estimated the Google+ user base.

My surname-based analysis shows that the number of Google+ users worldwide reached 7.3 million yesterday (July 10) – up from 1.7 million users on July 4th. That is a 350% increase in six days. The userbase is growing so quickly that it is challenging for me to keep up, since the number of users of any given surname (even the rare ones I am tracking) seems to be climbing every day.

More impressive than last week's growth is the astonishing growth in users from yesterday at mid-day to tonight -- a 30% jump. My latest estimate tonight shows approximately 9.5 million users. This suggests that 2.2 million people have joined Google+ in the past 32-34 hours.

I project that Google will easily pass 10 million users tomorrow and could reach 20 million user by this coming weekend if they keep the Invite Button available. As one G+ user put it, it is easy to underestimate the power of exponential growth.

My model is simple. I start with US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates. My ratio is 1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven't updated it since. That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time.

Since I have been tracking this same cohort of surnames from my first day, I am able to accurately measure growth over time.

I am not claiming perfect accuracy, but I do think the model is sound. A quant has suggested a mathematical formula that I can use to calculate a range of Google users with a 99% level of accuracy, and one of my employees is working on that math now. I hope to include that in future models.

Here is one way to look at my model. Imagine the U.S. government in 2020 has no money left. I know that's hard to imagine, but stay with me. Imagine they wanted to conduct a 2020 census and subsequent decennial censuses with a degree of accuracy (let's say 95%) and to do it on a shoestring budget.

They had complete data for 2010 - the population and growth rates for every city and town in the country. To do 2020, they could just take a random sampling of 100 cities and towns across the U.S. that were representative and conduct the census JUST for those cities every 10 years. If those 100 cities averaged the same growth rates as the rest of the country, then their decennial censuses would be fairly accurate but very inexpensive. (Obviously the US example won't work and shouldn't be tried, since the purpose of the U.S. census is in part to determine Congressional representation - so a complete census must be done in the entire country.)

But my project is like that - a low-budget sampling. I have randomly selected 100 uncommon U.S. surnames and I am tracking the number of Google+ users with those names - updating my counts every 2-3 days. I am assuming that the growth in G+ users with those surnames is similar to the growth in G+ users with the other 150,000 or so surnames in the U.S. If I had resources to include 500 or 1,000 surnames in my sample, then I believe my model would be more accurate. But my time and budget available for this project are small, so it is what it is. And then I take the 2.12 - 1 non-US to US ratio to complete the calculations.

I'm not sure how many more times I'll update this. I do believe it is quite accurate. Much more accurate than a guess. It is based on sound starting data, but some of my assumptions may not be perfect. I look forward to Google announcing actual user numbers, so I can stop working on this in all my spare time. Or, perhaps, someone will discover an advanced query that actually works - that returns unique user profile pages but no pages that contain posts. People keep suggesting queries will work, but so far, I have found that none of them is accurate for user counts.

For reference, here are my earlier posts on this subject:

4.5 million estimate on 7/9 (actually 12:15ish on 7/10)
https://plus.google.com/117388252776312694644/posts/1k85ZNPCu1A

1.7 million estimate on 7/4
https://plus.google.com/117388252776312694644/posts/VuKTMZm9xWy
Google+ is Growing Like Crazy. Report Coming Monday. Probably More than 4.5 Million Users Already On Monday morning I plan to publish my…
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Have him in circles
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Ariel Kahan

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Masterpiece toy organ by Google Doodle
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Ariel Kahan

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Check-out Google's new social-enabled "Search plus Your World"
Amit Singhal originally shared:
 
Today we are introducing Search plus Your World, a new Google search experience centered around people. For the first time ever, you will be able to find personal results from your world -- your photos, your friends, your stuff -- in search.

It's rolling out today and should be available in the US for all signed in Google users over the next few days.
Google Search has always been about finding the best results for you. Sometimes that means results from the public web, but sometimes it means your personal content or things shared with you by people...
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Ariel Kahan

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Innovative bridge design - Moses parts the water in the Netherlands.
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Ariel Kahan

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Ahmed Zeeshan originally shared:
 
Google+ | The Circles: Dividing, Nesting and Prioritizing

There have been many articles and posts explaining the use and power of circles but there haven't been any decent and practical examples to demonstrate that. Therefore, inspired by the excellent ideas of +Chris Cho and +Jacqueline Passey Mason, I've reorganized, prioritized and nested my circles. This is to show you the true potential of circles.

First, we need to understand that a Google+ Circle has two main functions, sharing and streaming:

Sharing (output): This is content that you publish. Depending on your real-life relationship with your contacts, the information you share will not be the same for your different social circles. At the same time, your social circles may overlap. This means one person may be a part of two different circles at the same time.

Streaming (input): This is content that your contacts stream to your Google+ homepage. Streaming is different from sharing in the sense that streams depend more on your interests rather than your relationships.

Hence, to achieve more control over your circles, I believe it is necessary to divide them between sharing and streaming.

Since, my sharing circles can overlap, I decided to further nest and prioritize them based on my real-life relationships with the people in my contacts list. On the other hand, my streaming circles are interest based. Hence, they're sub-divided by interests and do not necessarily need nesting.

Now, to achieve all this in Google+ is simple. Here is how I did it:

Sharing Circles
1: Friends
1.1: Close
1.2: College
1.3: High School
1.4: Others

2: Family
2.1: Favorites
2.2: Immediate
2.3: Extended

3: Work
3.1: Department
3.2: Colleagues
3.3: Clients

4: The Internet
4.1: Added Me
4.2: Google+
4.3: Influential
4.4: Who?

Streaming Circles
s: Google+
s: Android
s: Influential
s: Movies
s: Tech Talk


This arrangement now makes my sharing and streaming a lot easier to manage:

- If I want to send out information I will only use the sharing circles. If I want to share with my College and Close friends, but not my High school friends, then I will tag 1.1, 1.2 but not 1.3. If I want to share with all my friends I will just tag 1 because it contains everyone from 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4.

- Similarly, if I want to know what my contacts are saying about Android, I will click on the s: Android streaming circle in my stream. If I want to know what my Family has been upto, I will click on the s: Family circle and so on.

Using this method will give you all more control with how you share and view information on Google+. While other social networking sites have also offered similar subdivision of contacts, they are by no means as easy and simple to use as on Google+.

I have also attached a screenshot to show how the prioritizing and nesting looks on Google+.

Thank you for reading through.

Cheers,
+Ahmed Zeeshan

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Helpful Feedback

+Alma Whitten (regarding nesting automation): If you want Circle A to contain Circle B, it's easy to select all of Circle B and drag it into Circle A, and since it de-dups you can do this kind of mindlessly to keep it fresh. What you can't do is define Circle A as containing Circle B so that if you remove someone from Circle A they're automatically removed from Circle B. So far I'm finding that okay though because when I'm removing someone it tends to be person-centric and it's easy enough to manually remove them from both.

(an empty circle for note-taking): This idea has been widely publicized on Google+ so far. The concept is simple where you can use an empty circle to save any ideas/bookmarks/draft-shares/pictures/posts for easy access later as per your convenience.

****************************************
Permalink to Post: bit.ly/gpcircles
Google Doc version:


This article is also available in the following languages:
French - bit.ly/gpcir_FR (translated by +Monsieur John)
Spanish - bit.ly/gpcir_ES (translated by +Varun Dadlani)

If you wish to contribute a translation for another language please read this post: bit.ly/gp_trans


Other Google+ articles from me:
The Etiquettes - bit.ly/gp_etiquettes
The Early Adopter's Guide - bit.ly/gp_early
The Starter's Pack - bit.ly/gpstarter
The Average Facebook User - bit.ly/gb_fb

****************************************

Note to fellow readers:
> Please do leave feedback. It helps to improve the article and starts a healthy discussion.
> Please feel free to re-share the post.
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Ariel Kahan

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Facebook seriously joining Google+ to solicit social network wishlist - reading through the feedbacks is hilarious.
Blake Ross originally shared:
 
To everyone who added me on Google+: Please add my colleague +Naomi Gleit! She is Vice President of User Feedback for Facebook, so her job is to take all of your wishes and wants for Facebook and turn them into reality!
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Have him in circles
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