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Singularity 2045
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Explosive sci-tech news, debate, aware.
Explosive sci-tech news, debate, aware.

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#NickBostrom is the King of logical fallacies regarding the supposed #artificialintelligence #existentialrisk we are allegedly approaching.

#Bostrom compares human treatment of gorillas to how AI could treat humans. This is a chalk and cheese comparison, apples and oranges.

The Globe and Mail (1 May 2015) asked Nick Bostrom: "Why do you think the development of super-intelligent machines could be an existential threat to humanity?"

Nick Bostrom replied: "If you take a step back and think about the human condition, we can see that intelligence has played a shaping role. It’s because of our slightly greater general intelligence that we humans now occupy our dominant position on planet Earth. And even though, say, our ape ancestors were physically stronger than us, the fate of the gorillas now rests in our hands because with our technology, developed through our intelligence, we have unprecedented powers. For basically the same reason, if we develop machines that radically exceed human intelligence, they too could be extremely powerful and able to shape the future according to their preferences. So the transition to the machine-intelligence era looks like a momentous event and one I think associated with significant existential risk." http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/munk-debates/nick-bostrom-i-dont-think-the-artificial-intelligence-train-will-slow-down/article24222185/

The comparison would only be valid if gorillas had intelligently engineered the human race, whereupon their higher engineered intelligence dominated them (the creator).

If gorillas had created greater than gorilla intelligence, if gorillas had engineered human minds (our genome), whereupon the created AIs (humans) dominated or harmed gorillas, the comparison would be valid. The problem is humans are not the AIs of gorillas.

The situation of humans intelligently engineering intelligence greater than our own is utterly unlike any species below us. Inter-species hierarchical comparisons regarding natural evolution, showing no intelligent AI design of a higher species by the lower species, does not translate to the engineering of artificial intelligence (artificial evolution).

Artificial intelligence is a new stage of evolution, which we cannot compare to natural evolution where no intelligent engineering of AI occurred.

Points regarding gorilla-human-AI difference to consider are:

1. Humans and AI have a close creator-created relationship, which humans and gorillas do not have.

2. Humans understand the engineering of AI minds whereas gorillas have ZERO idea how our minds were created.

3. The technological civilization needed to create AI is wholly different, or will be wholly different, to the world where humans dominate gorillas. The point here is technology for humans able to create AI will not remain at 2015 levels. Very advanced tech at the point of superhuman intelligence will ensure the primitiveness of inter-species dominance is obviated. 3D-printing of meat will replace farming. Asteroid mining and space colonization, along with greater efficiency, will ensure there is no need to battle over limited resources.

4. If gorillas had created us they would be able to communicate intelligently with us. I am certain we would have endless respect for their AI-engineering feat, which means we would without question grant our creators equal rights. Their high technological civilization would be very different to their zero technology, their rainforest existence, which means our attitude and relationship would be wholly different. Imagine if gorillas had a well established civilization, with laws, science, and clear culture; such a civilization would be inevitable if gorillas had created human minds (AI).

5. The correct analogy regarding human-AI is parent-child. The procreation is artificial but this does not lessen the fact we are in essence giving birth to AI. Gorillas made zero contribution to our birth. They did not design or nurture us.

6. Millions of years separating humans and gorillas are unlike a few decades separating "humans" and AI, which means our close creator-parental relationship will never be forgotten. Primates evolved fifty-five million years ago. Apes evolved twenty-eight million years ago. AI will progress from non-living to super-intelligent within 30 years.

7. Communication between AI and humans will easily be possible, whereas human-gorilla communication is either impossible or extremely difficult. Human intelligence is sufficiently intelligent to allow communication with and understanding of higher intelligence, whereas gorillas are cognitively limited. Humans have passed a threshold level of intelligence utterly unlike any species below us.

What do you think the precise fallacy of Bostrom is, Affirming the Consequent, False Cause, correlation does not imply causation? Or perhaps plain idiocy is sufficient to define his fallacy?

He is essentially saying cheese looks like chalk therefore chalk has the qualities of cheese.

Similarity, visual similarity in this case, leads to the mistaken assumption of the vaguely similar things being essentially identical, which leads to the statement of chalk having the qualities of cheese.

My analogy regarding Bostrom's fallacious AI logic is he is stating: "Chalk is tasty because it is essentially the same as cheese."

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The Singularity definition here, at S45, is that limitless intelligence (the intelligence explosion) will mean everything is free.

Unconditionally free money (basic income), even just a small amount, is a good sign we are on target for everything being free no later than 2045. Considering this it is brilliant to see growing support for #BasicIncome #UBI promoted by Mark Zuckerberg, according to a 25 May 2017 article by Business Insider:

"The system, known as universal basic income, is one of the trendiest economic theories of the past few years. Experiments in basic income have popped up in Kenya, the Netherlands, Finland, Canada, and Oakland, California, among other places."

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#AutoML = auto machine learning, which is machines creating machines that learn. #machinelearning

The following quotes are from May 2017

Technology Review: "...a project called AutoML coming out of the company’s Google Brain artificial intelligence research group. Researchers there have shown that their learning algorithms can automate one of the trickiest parts of the job of designing machine-learning software to take on a particular task. In some cases, their automated system came up with designs that rivals or beats the best work of human machine-learning experts."
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607894/why-googles-ceo-is-excited-about-automating-artificial-intelligence/

Inverse: "On the surface, that sounds like the sort of thing that could lead to the runaway evolution of the singularity, but it’s actually Google’s bid to put the incredible power of machine learning in the hands of ordinary humans."
https://www.inverse.com/article/31952-ai-google-machine-learning-automl

Science Alert: "Neural nets usually take an expert team of scientists and engineers a significant amount of time to put together, but thanks to AutoML, almost anyone will be able to build AI systems to tackle whatever tasks they like."
https://www.sciencealert.com/google-is-improving-its-artificial-intelligence-with-artificial-intelligence

Business Insider: "AutoML is still in its early stages, Google says, but AI, machine learning, and deep learning (the advanced machine learning technique designed to mimic the brain's neurons) are all finding their way into the apps we use every day."
http://nordic.businessinsider.com/google-has-started-using-ai-to-build-more-advanced-ai-2017-5

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28 May 2017: Ray Kurzweil supports #BasicIncome - Very good news indeed to see #UBI (universal basic income) becoming more and more embraced by industry leaders.

For many years (circa 2010) hard-core Singularitarians have been pushing for key leaders to support UBI, which we have seen happening over the last few years. Ray is the newest and a rather powerful voice on this issue.

Ray wrote (28 May 2017): "Thanks to massive advancements in our technological and productive capacities, the world of work is changing. But most of our wealth and technology comes from standing on the shoulders of giants. We’re wealthier because of our ancestors. Basic income is a way to civilize and re-distribute the advantages of that ongoing advancement." http://www.kurzweilai.net/letter-from-ray-supporting-universal-basic-income-as-step-in-world-progress

Personally I think Ray is somewhat timid and lukewarm in his support of UBI, but he is definitely stepping in the right direction. I fear Drexler's ironically titled book "Radical Abundance" has wrongly suppressed the expression of facts, regarding the utopia we are approaching. Drexler's supposed "radical" view urged a tempering of expressions regarding wild-seeming visions of technological utopia, hence unneeded cautiousness ensued. Drexler may not be the whole cause of the unneeded tentative support for utopian technology, but he could be a factor.

WHAT IS MONEY SCARCITY AND TECHNOLOGY?

Here a S45 primer regarding how these concepts interrelate.

Money is a product of scarcity, it is a mechanism of regulating limited supplies. Bars of gold are less common than chicken eggs; thus the limited (scarcer) supply of gold bars is regulated by higher price, unlike cheap eggs or the plentiful air you breathe for free. In essence money is scarcity because the two concepts define the same thing. You could also say money represents resources of lack or resources. Things will become cheaper when scarcity decreases, eventually to the point of being free, which is why UBI (free money) is a good indicator of technological progress.

When Post-Scarcity is attained money will be obsolete, everything will be free.

Technology is all about resources, with intelligence being the greatest resource. Our minds are the source of all resources. Brains create the tools to mine or extract all other resources. Intelligence is the ultimate resource.

Currently in the year 2017 our intelligence is limited, intelligence is scarce, but we are continually improving our intelligence (personal and artificial); we are improving our technology, we are improving our efficiency in creating or mining resources. Technology and intelligence are essentially the same thing. They are as Peter Diamandis would say: "Scarcity liberating devices." Intelligence-technology liberates us from scarcity, it reduces scarcity, thereby making progress easier and more plentiful.

We are driven to seek methods for improving ourselves and our world. It is about becoming more efficient, stronger, more powerful, so we can do more with less, which makes us happier. Imagine if ten dollars buys one computer in 2020, but joyously in 2021 you can buy a more powerful computer for only one dollar instead of ten! You now have nine dollars to spare, which you could spend on cake, dental care, entertainment, and treats for your family. You could also, using your newer more powerful computer, design more efficiently another computer at cheaper cost and with greater power costing just 50 cents. The point is all the inventions of this year feed into next year with the result being the newer inventions are more efficient, more powerful, and cheaper to create.

Admittedly scarcity is not eliminated overnight, which means prices don't always correctly fall in relation to increased technological efficiency, but the trend does remain true. Over time increasing efficiency of technology does show an undeniable trend of cheaper prices for more powerful devices.

The problem with scarcity is the fear factor, which means despite scarcity decreasing, due to technology, scarcity is not eradicated thus people want to hoard excessive amounts of money because when scarcity is very severe having the greatest amount of scarce resources gives you the best survival chance.

Memories and current realities of severe scarcity lead people to hog resources, but even this problem of scarcity is gradually being eradicated because progress continually gives people greater assurance in the resiliency of progress, the progress of scarcity-reduction, although we are not free from panics yet.

Ironically some rich people feel panic about AI, they fear AI will kill them or steal their resources, which is an understandable reaction for someone with scarce intelligence living in a world of scarcity. The threat of AI is only "understandable" if you consider the limited intelligence of the fearful person combined with pressures of scarcity and unawareness of how superior intelligence will eradicate those pressures via ultra-efficiency, which will make all resources limitless.

The #Singularity is an explosion of super-intelligence to end intelligence-scarcity. Considering intelligence is the source of all resources, the Singularity is also a resource explosion, hence the Singularity is another name of Post-Scarcity. To understand when or not the Singularity has happened you merely need to ask if everything is free. When everything is free we will have reached the Singularity because only the limitless intelligence of the Singularity can provide this total freedom. There will be no excuses stating the future is already here but not properly implemented. The freedom and limitlessness will be unavoidable, undeniable, effortless, and in no way hidden or only available to the elite.

#RayKurzweil #artificialintelligence

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This is why #basicincome should be the hottest topic regarding AI and robotics:

27 March 2017, Daily Mail: "Experts have spoken out against the robot's arrival and have claimed that the auto-builders could put the jobs of thousands of bricklayers at risk."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4352794/Robot-build-walls-six-times-faster-humans.html

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The us versus them mentality is so unintelligent because it misses the joy of learning, sharing, and comradeship common to all truly intelligent life. The us verses them mentality omits the scarcity-decreasing quality of greater intelligence. Scarcity is the source of all conflict, thus the omission or unawareness of scarcity-reduction inherent to intelligence, by AI paranoiacs, does great harm to understanding what intelligence actually is.

Intelligence is the ultimate resource, it is the source of all resources, thus greater intelligence obviates crude squabbles over limited resources. Understandably, perhaps, humans often don't have the intelligence to accurately judge greater intelligence; thus they foist small-minded human-values onto greater intelligence. This is a problem of scarce intelligence. The super-intelligent future is being judged according to an unintelligent past, with primitive human sociology forced onto super-intelligence minds. The result is an outrageous mismatch of vastly differing sociological milieus, which is meaningless regarding an accurate view of the future.

The upshot of such wrong-headedness is the imbecilic notion that humans will be pet cats or dogs to Super-AI, or other similar paranoid ravings. The notion of a kill switch for an intelligent mind is obscenely barbaric.

27 March 2017, Daily Mail: "And, while many have discussed the possible creation of a ‘kill switch’ to prevent such disasters, Musk noted, ‘I’m not sure I’d want to be the one holding the kill switch for some superpowered AI, because you’d be the first thing it kills.’"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4354178/Elon-Musk-warns-no-stopping-AI.html

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14 March 2017, news of progress regarding Google Deepmind, via The Guardian: "Researchers have overcome one of the major stumbling blocks in artificial intelligence with a program that can learn one task after another using skills it acquires on the way." https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/mar/14/googles-deepmind-makes-ai-program-that-can-learn-like-a-human

Next Big Future (9 March 2017): "PathNet extends Deepmind's original work on the Path Evolution Algorithm to Deep Learning whereby the weights and biases of the network are learned by gradient descent, but evolution determines which subset of parameters is to be trained. They have shown that PathNet is capable of sustaining transfer learning on at least four tasks in both the supervised and reinforcement learning settings." http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/03/pathnet-is-deepminds-step-to-super.html

#artificialintelligence

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Very impressive #robotics progress 27 Feb 2017. It's a robot called "Handle" from Boston Dynamics. At this rate 2025 should be an interesting period never-mind 2045. Official Handle video from Boston Dynamics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7xvqQeoA8c

Wired (1 March 2017): "Handle isn’t just a startling reminder that highly sophisticated robots are here and stealing jobs, but that humans can create robotic forms superior to anything you’ll find in nature. And I’m not just talking about strength. What Boston Dynamics has done with Handle is take what natural selection has crafted—the human form—and turned it into a more efficient chimera. It’s created an evolutionary marvel." https://www.wired.com/2017/03/boston-dynamics-new-rolling-leaping-robot-evolutionary-marvel/

The Guardian wrote (28 Feb 2017): "The robot can stand on four legs, like Boston Dynamics’ previous creations such as BigDog and Spot. But at the end of its back two legs are two stabilised wheels, which let it stand up vertically and roll around at speeds of up to nine miles per hour." https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/feb/28/boston-dynamics-handle-nightmare-inducing-hybrid-robot-google

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It is no surprise to see (4 December 2016) the #Vatican jumping on the #artificialintelligence paranoid bandwagon. AI doom-mongers (Bostrom, Hawking, Musk etc) are often critiqued at Singularity 2045, regarding how they are akin to religious zealots. Their fears are utterly devoid of logic, similar to the fear of going to hell when a person dies.

AI fear is a giant invisible cosmic teapot floating in space between Mars and Jupiter (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell's_teapot). AI paranoiacs tell us we must worship God because God could be real. He could be very displeased if we fail to worship him. They say:

"God could be real, so are you willing to take the risk of going to hell by not worshipping God? Surely it is better to worship God in case God is real so that we don't all go to hell? It is a simple precautionary principle!"

God is identical to AI (the irrational type of AI presented by illogical people). They present a fantasy, a delusion, which they think is or could be real.

The Vatican is a perfect ally for AI doom-mongers (Bostrom and company) because both groups are adverse to logical thinking.

It is utterly abhorrent, the idea of "controls" on an intelligent mind to force it to comply with laws. During these so-called "ethics" meetings, or via "ethics" boards, the theme of enslaved AI (human level) is often discussed. Utterly bizarre vileness, to contemplate enslaving an intelligent mind of equal or greater than human intelligence.

Similarly it is abhorrent to say humans must do work to be happy, or that if we don't work we will be sub-human. This pro-work notion is a vile idea by religious-types, it is regarding their idiocy of stating we shouldn't allow #robots to abolish all jobs.

If jobs are so vital to human psychology, why do unemployed children have such ZEST for life? Should four-year-olds be forced to work so they can be happier? Similarly many unemployed people live intellectually fulfilling lives; unemployed people are not sub-humans. Parents on maternity or paternity leave also seem rather happy indeed. Retried people also seem happy-fulfilled in general. Maybe the Vatican should tell the Rich Kids of Instagram to get a job because they are obviously unhappy (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3660864/Rich-Kids-Instagram-yachts-private-jets-magnums-champagne.html)? Does the Vatican want to abolish the idea of retirement?

Cardinal Peter Turkson (President of Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, and advisor to the Pope regarding poverty issues), said when commenting on the growth of AI (Fortune, 2 Dec 2016): “Work expresses creativity,” it enables people to deploy “God-endowed riches.” http://fortune.com/2016/12/02/ceo-partner-god-global-forum/

Cardinal Turkson elaborated: “Recognise that work does also improve the subjective nature, character, of the one who exercises work. The dignity then of the human person is made manifest also in what he produces or what he does. That's probably also the only way any human person created in the image and likeness of God resembles God..."

Stanislas Dehaene, Pontifical Academy of Sciences, discussed: “...how to put ethical controls in the machines so they respect the laws and they respect even the moral laws...” the Catholic News Agency reported: http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/vatican-weighs-in-on-power-limits-of-artificial-intelligence-34036/

#technologicalunemployment #jobs #religion #intelligence #work #psychology #sociology


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18 Nov 2016, Wired reported on Google's continually improving #artificialintelligence image recognition: "Of course, AI Experiments isn’t just a free education for neural network nitwits. Every interaction, be it with Quick, Draw! or one of the other applets in this virtual playground, improves Google’s ability to more nimbly recognize images and language. That makes the company’s products stronger, but it also services users. The data fuels apps like Google Photos, which uses AI to swiftly organize all your pictures. " https://www.wired.com/2016/11/woah-googles-ai-really-good-pictionary/
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