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Jacob Wood
350 followers -
Avid investor, writer, editor and market analyst
Avid investor, writer, editor and market analyst

350 followers
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Nonfarm Payroll Predictions
 
If you’re looking for a #NFP prediction then note that on 1 Sep MarketWatch were predicting 226,000 jobs, that has now moved a touch higher to 228,000.
 
Perhaps something of more interest is that the spread betting and CFD market, i.e. where you can actually take a position on the #nonfarm #payroll figure itself, has seen some interesting moves.
 
On 1 Sep that market was trading at 212,500 - 217,500. There’s now been a solid move higher to 228,000 - 233,000.
 
I was tempted with a small buy at 217,500, with the market now at 228,000 - 233,000, it’s a bit more tricky to call.
 
The above is my own personal view, it is not trading advice. If you do speculate, only speculate with money you can afford to lose.

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'Non' to the Nonfarms for Now

It might be a bit early to start looking at the next #NFP number but some of the spreads companies have opened their markets for the June NFP.

So far the market is looking similar to last month's #nonfarms which came in at 217,000 new jobs.

The spread at the moment with both Financial Spreads and Capital Spreads (same platform) is rather wide at 193 - 223, i.e. they are predicting 193,000 to 223,000 new jobs.

No trading for me just yet, I'm hoping they tighten their spread before I take another look.

The above is my own personal view, it is not trading advice. If you do speculate, only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
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Big Boys 2:1 Long of Gold (ish)

Gold has had a rather good June and the latest US Gov Commitment of Traders report shows that the big boy traders (i.e. non-commercials aka the hedge funds) are 1.9:1 long of gold.

Looking in a little more detail at Friday’s #gold report for the week 11-17 June, the hedgies slightly increased their long trades and reduced their short trades.

A positive signal but, for me, not a strong enough one to trade on just yet.

And annoyingly I missed out on the 19 June price spike.

The above is my own personal view, it is not trading advice. If you do speculate, only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
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The Problem of Trading the Stock Market with a Split Personality

The #FTSE 100 has been in a rather steep up-channel since the 3 Feb low at 6388. It is currently on target test the May 2013 high.

The index is currently trading around 6842 but the chart below suggests a potential test of the May 2013 high at 6876.

The FTSE’s highest level was back in the Dot Com bubble / Millennium Bug days when the #stock #market reached 6950.6 on 30 December 1999.

As usual, my split trading personality makes me want to put on a number of different, and seemingly contradictory, trades:

a) I want to trade with the current up-trend
b) I want to wait; theoretically a break of 6876 will give fresh impetus for the index to move higher
c) I want to short-sell the UK index as it approaches 6876, the level should act as resistance
d) I think traders will be getting vertigo at these levels and looking for any excuse to close their positions. Some poor economic data / more talk of tapering could be good for a short-sell

Of course, I could do all of these trades, and IF I get the timing right, they could all work.

I’ve not traded yet, but d) with a dash of c) and then a) and b) might work very nicely.

But looking at my trading account history, that seems like a bit of a stretch.

In fact it might be easier, quicker and cheaper, to just lose £2 playing tonight’s EuroMillions instead.

The above is my own personal view, it is not trading advice. If you do speculate, only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
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The Problem of Trading the Stock Market with a Split Personality

The #FTSE 100 has been in a rather steep up-channel since the 3 Feb low at 6388. It is currently on target test the May 2013 high.

The index is currently trading around 6842 but the chart below suggests a potential test of the May 2013 high at 6876.

The FTSE’s highest level was back in the Dot Com bubble / Millennium Bug days when the #stock #market reached 6950.6 on 30 December 1999.

As usual, my split trading personality makes me want to put on a number of different, and seemingly contradictory, trades:

a) I want to trade with the current up-trend
b) I want to wait; theoretically a break of 6876 will give fresh impetus for the index to move higher
c) I want to short-sell the UK index as it approaches 6876, the level should act as resistance
d) I think traders will be getting vertigo at these levels and looking for any excuse to close their positions. Some poor economic data / more talk of tapering could be good for a short-sell

Of course, I could do all of these trades, and IF I get the timing right, they could all work.

I’ve not traded yet, but d) with a dash of c) and then a) and b) might work very nicely.

But looking at my trading account history, that seems like a bit of a stretch.

In fact it might be easier, quicker and cheaper, to just lose £2 playing tonight’s EuroMillions instead.

The above is my own personal view, it is not trading advice. If you do speculate, only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
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Is Tapering Rescuing the Gold Market?

Tapering by the US Fed should be strengthening the dollar and that should be suppressing gold prices.

Yet, whilst the #USD has been getting stronger, gold is also moving higher.

Without the tapering-safety-net, investors are getting evermore fearful of average/poor US corporate returns, shrinking Chinese growth and emerging market problems.

(and that’s before we get to all the issues in Europe).

The result is that we have seen #stock #markets having a bit of a rout and money has flowed into #gold and government #bonds.

The daily chart below shows that gold could be in a nice up-channel which has been around since 19 Dec.

When the price nears the bottom of the channel I will be tempted to have a small buy.

A word of warning though, other commentators are talking of strong resistance around $1,268. If they are right, we will need to see a close above $1,268 for the trend to continue.

The above is my own personal view, it is not trading advice. If you do speculate, only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
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Short-Term RSI Buy Signal for Gold
 
With a lot of market volatility over the last week, and the overnight announcement from the Federal Reserve that it would taper its bond purchases by another $10bn, there were always going to be some interesting moves today.
 
On the 15 minute chart, spot #gold has just crossed above the 30 level on the Relative Strength Index.
 
If you like your RSIs, you should take a quick look at it.
 
Of course, it’s only the 15min chart and therefore a short-term signal.
 
The above is my own personal view, it is not trading advice. If you do speculate, only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
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Short-Term RSI Buy Signal for Gold
 
With a lot of market volatility over the last week, and the overnight announcement from the Federal Reserve that it would taper its bond purchases by another $10bn, there were always going to be some interesting moves today.
 
On the 15 minute chart, spot #gold has just crossed above the 30 level on the Relative Strength Index.
 
If you like your RSIs, you should take a quick look at it.
 
Of course, it’s only the 15min chart and therefore a short-term signal.
 
The above is my own personal view, it is not trading advice. If you do speculate, only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
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Dead Cat Bounce in Stocks and a Good Time for Gold Buyers?

Gold has broken up through resistance at $1,268.

Worries over emerging markets is causing a lot of uncertainty for investors and the major stock markets are seeing a major sell off.

Whilst company valuations weren’t at their historical peaks last week, #shares were still pretty expensive. There may not be that many stock market buyers just yet.

All this is good news for #gold , in times of uncertainty, investors like to move into gold.

So far this morning, the markets have seen a small rebound but that might just be a dead cat bounce.

If so, I’d expect more #stock #market #selling and it’s not difficult to imagine gold getting another leg up.

A word of warning

The financial markets can have very short-term memories.

Whether it’s in a day or two, or in a few weeks, once #equities stabilise, the money may simply move out of gold and back into stocks.

Sadly, any bounce for gold could be short-lived.

( #Dow #Jones  (Wall St) and Gold charts below).
 
The above is my own personal view, it is not trading advice. If you do speculate, only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
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