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EUR / USD

The positive development of the situation with Brexit influenced not only the British currency, but also the European. It should also be noted that the Brexit news coincided with the technical correction of the US dollar, so the dollar index pulled away from the annual highs and found support in the area of 96.60. Yesterday, the European currency was able to break above 1.1300, now the new tactical support area and resistacne is around 1.1350 zone.

Trading recommendations - out of the market

GBP / USD

The British currency continues to trade volatile amid volatile news background. On Tuesday, the pair returned to the strategic resistance level of 1.3000. However, despite the positive news regarding Brexit, the market decided to sell the British pound. Yesterday, sales increased from the resistance level of 1.3000 - the pair fell to the area of 1.2810. Further decline will lead quotes of this market down to the area of four-month lows - 1.2660 zone.

Trading recommendations - sales

AUD / USD

Support 0.7160 proved to be firm and allowed the Australian currency to maintain positive sentiment. Yesterday, the pair was able to play back all the losses and consolidated into the zone of the recent maximum - zone 0.7280. Overcoming this mark will open the way to the 0.7340 area.

Trading recommendations- longs after pullback

Gold

This week the market fell to a strategic support level $ 1205- $ 1206 and further to the $ 1200 area. As we expected, this zone is of strategic importance to the market and allowed buyers to seize back the initiative. Taking advantage of US dollar weakness , the bulls were able to move quotes up to the new resistance zone around 1215. We do not think that the market will be able to overcome this zone on the move, the immediate support is located in the $ 1,206 zone.

Trading recommendations - longs around $ 1206
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EUR / USD

Due to the influence of a large number of news factors, EUR / USD session was very volatile on Wednesday, and the trading was closed with a small bullish gain.

At the beginning of the trading day, bulls didn’t have many reasons for joy, since the statistics published in Europe mostly either corresponded to the predicted values or was even worse. Key data on the preliminary estimate of EU GDP for the third quarter fully coincided with forecasts and previous values, growth y / y 1.7%, q / q 0.2%.

A serious increase in volatility occurred at the beginning of the American trading session, when, firstly, data on consumer price dynamics was published in the United States, and the UK began a government meeting at which a draft Brexit agreement agreed with the EU was considered.

These statistics from the United States somewhat upset investors, which led to a weakening of the dollar. In general, the statistical indicators corresponded to the predicted values, with the exception of the base CPI indicator y / y, which in October decreased from 2.2% to 2.1%. Inflation rates are traditionally important indicators of decision-making on changes in interest rates, so experts believe that while maintaining the current level of inflationary pressure, the Fed is unlikely to accelerate the process of raising interest rates. At the same time, the likelihood of a change in the rate at the December meeting, according to the CME Group, is still estimated at levels close to 70%.

The main driver of volatility at the end of the trading day was the news from London where Teresa May managed to convince the government to adopt a plan for leaving the UK from the EU, which had previously been agreed with the European side. These messages provided sufficient support to both the pound sterling and the European currency.

Today, EUR / USD currency pair is trading at a moderate growth of 0.3% playing out positive news about serious progress in the implementation of the Brexit agreement. But the dollar's position is still quite strong. This morning, Jerome Powell spoke at one of the events in the US, who prepared traders for the fact that further increases in interest rates should be expected at any FOMC meeting. Powell noted that the US economy continues to grow at a good pace and expressed the hope that this positive dynamic will continue. Inflationary pressure also meets the expectations of the Fed, which is also a good basis for further normalization of interest rates in the country. Separately, Powell touched on the White House policy. In particular, he noted that the current protectionist policy does not yet have a strong impact on the economy, but its further tightening may lead to negative consequences. Further implementation of the policy of raising rates in the US will inevitably contribute to further strengthening of the dollar, which will be a strong factor of pressure on the EUR / USD pair in the long term.

In addition to news from London, economic data from the United States will also have an impact on the trade, where retail sales reports and data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will be presented today. In Europe, only data on the trade balance and speeches by representatives of the ECB Pra and Kere are worthy of certain attention.
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Gold has rebounded back to $1212

Gold managed to maintain a positive dynamic on Tuesday due to the further weakening of the dollar, which remains the key factors influencing the precious metal.

The yellow metal is nominated in US dollars, so the depreciation of the US currency makes it cheaper and more affordable for investors. By the end of yesterday session, there are two main factors that put pressure on the US dollar and, accordingly, supported the quotes of the yellow metal.

The first is the strengthening of G7 currencies. News about the British withdrawal from the EU supported the British pound and the European currency as well. On Wednesday evening, the UK government meeting ended, at which Theresa Mae’s Brexit project was approved. The draft agreement was made public by the European Commission on Wednesday evening and covers all aspects of the process of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union.

The second item is the publication of data on the dynamics of changes in consumer prices. All the main indicators came out at the forecast level, with the exception of the base consumer price index y / y, which fell from 2.2% to 2.1%. Inflation rates are an important indicator for the Fed when deciding on a rate, and according to most analysts, while the numbers remain close to the predicted value, the Fed has no reason to accelerate the rate normalization process. At the same time, data published yesterday did not reduce the likelihood of a rate hike in December.

Thus, amid weaker USD dollar, precious metals received good support yesterday, but the prospects for medium-term growth of quotations are still limited. Fed speaker Jerome Powell delivered a speech last night, in particular, stating that markets should be prepared for the possibility of raising rates at any meeting, as the economy’s growth rate remains high, and the inflation rate corresponds to the predicted values. According to Powell, there are still very good chances for the further development of the US economy in a positive scenario, which makes it necessary to further increase rates for balancing risks. Thus, the market received clear signals that the process of raising interest rates in the United States will continue, which will provide strong support for both the dollar and the yield curve of US government bonds.

Today, the focus of investors will remain upon news related to the exit of the UK from the EU. A certain euphoria from the successful promotion of the May project in the government can support the pound and the euro, weakening the dollar for a short time, but domestic statistics and Jerome Powell’s regular performance scheduled for tonight can support the US currency.

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EUR / USD

US currency rally led the US dollar index quotes to the highs of 2017, a zone of 97.50 points. After that, a corrective pullback to 96.50 was triggered. This eased the pressure on the European currency. In addition, the achievement of new lows provoked profit taking and short positions close, as a result, the pair grew into the area of recent support 1.1300. We should not expect that the pair will overcome the level of 1.1300 - the transition into a new range is an accomplished long-term fact. Shorts positions is an interesting strategy in the current conditions.

Trading recommendations - shorts

GBP / USD

The British currency continues to trade volatile amid volatile news background. On Tuesday, the pair returned back to the strategic resistance level around 1.3000. Overcoming this level is not an easy task. If successful, the path might move up to the area of recent highs - this is the zone 1.3070 and further 1.3250. In case of a pullback, the market will find support in the area around 1.2940.

Trading recommendations - out of the market

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar marked the highs around 0.7290 zone, after which it switched to decline amid the strengthening of the American dollar. The support is located in the 0.7160 area, from where the last short-term impulse originated, but the growth failed to develop. The pressure on the Australian dollar remains - a breakthrough of 0.7260 eliminates all current applications of the Australian dollar for growth.

Trading recommendations - out of market

Gold

The market fell to a strategic support level around $ 1205- $ 1206 and further to the area of $ 1200. Now it all depends on whether this mark will hold. In the case of increasing pressure and a breakthrough of this zone, the market will move to the level of $ 1,180. However, the bulls have a chance to stop falling on this strong technical mark.

Trading recommendations - out of the market
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Gold has declined to strategical level $1200, what is next?

On Tuesday, gold trading session took place in different directions, but by the end of the day, buyers managed to complete the day with a slight advantage, amid the weakening of the dollar in the second half of the trading day. Thus, a series of negative trading sessions of seven trading days was interrupted.

USD dollar still remains the main driver for the gold market. Last week, FOMC meeting was held, following which it became clear that the regulator intends to continue the policy of raising interest rates in the United States. Maintaining a policy of gradual increase in interest rates, firstly, provides a strong long-term support for the dollar, and secondly, contributes to the further growth of the yield of US government bonds. The growth of the dollar makes the precious metal more expensive, and the growth in the yield of government bonds reduces the investment attractiveness of the yellow metal. Therefore, the gold dynamics in recent days was quite logical and fully corresponded to the general fundamental background prevailing in the market.

Yesterday, the situation changed somewhat, as the US dollar got under some pressure amid the influence of some factors, thereby easing the pressure on the yellow metal. Firstly, the correction on USD dollar index was due to purely technical issues, on Monday the dollar index reached its maximum since June 2017, which led to the partial fixation of long positions on this asset by many investors. Secondly, the news broke that China and the United States resumed trade negotiations in order to reach certain agreements on the eve of the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. Earlier, it was the American dollar that was the main beneficiary of the trade conflict between Beijing and Washington. Thirdly, other currencies of G7 put pressure on the dollar index. GBP displayed strong growth on the positive reports about Brexit, the New Zealand dollar and other currencies showed good growth as well.

Today, trading session is starting in a tight range without significant changes relative to the opening price. Investors have so far taken a wait-and-see attitude, apparently concentrating all their attention on US inflation data that will be presented today. According to experts, the annual baseline should remain around 2.2%, while the growth rate for the month should accelerate from 0.1% to 0.2%. The better data or the level around forecast can provide strong support to the dollar, since in this case the likelihood of an next rate-hike at the December FOMC meeting will increase much more.
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FortFS – Citadel of trading!
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EUR / USD

Pressure on the market persists, and judging by the close of the previous week, in the upcoming five-day week we can see new local minimums for the European currency. So now, in priority we must have shorts. Today, the pair is trading in the support area around $1.1230, a breakthrough of this zone will open the way to the $1.1120 area. Resistance is now around $1.1300.

Trading recommendations - shorts

GBP / USD

The strengthening of the dollar had a strong pressure on the British currency. On Friday, the GBP / USD pair broke through the strategic support of 1.3000, and on Monday the zone 1.2920 was broken as well. However the market decline was halted in the area of 1.2840, after which the pair corrected to the zone of 1.2925. The current situation is not certain - we remain out of the market.

Trading recommendations - out of the market

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar marked the highs in the 0.7290 zone, after which it switched to decline amid the strengthening of the American dollar. Support is located in the area of 0.7190 and further in the area of 0.7160.

Trading recommendations - out of market

Gold

The market fell to a strategic support level of $ 1205- $ 1206 and further to the area of $ 1200. Now it all depends on whether this mark will hold around this psychological level. In the event of increased pressure and a breakthrough of this zone, the market will move to a new range of $ 1,200- $ 1,180. However, the bulls have a chance to stop falling on this strong technical mark.

Trading recommendations - out of the market
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Gold is down to $1202

The third trading day in a row the gold is heavier and closes the session with a minus, being under pressure from the dollar and expectations of the next rate-hike in the United States. The last FOMC meeting further increased the influence of the US currency on the precious metal, and so far the precious asset cannot cope with this pressure. Yesterday, the yellow metal lost in value by about 0.5%, while the dollar index rose by more than 0.7%.

At the same time yesterday, external factors were the main driver for the dollar: the uncertainty of the political situation in Europe, the Brexit problem, the slowdown in global economic growth, the deterioration of economic indicators in China, against the background of the ongoing trade war, etc. The combination of all these factors contributed to a significant strengthening of the US dollar against other world currencies. Gold is also a definite beneficiary of the growing uncertainty in the global economy, but in the current situation, the influence of the dollar on the yellow metal outweighs the cumulative effect of all other factors that provide it with short-term support.

Many experts believe that the economic data, which this week will be published in the United States, will provide additional support for the US currency. On Wednesday, US Ministry of Labor will provide fresh data on inflation, and on Thursday an important report on retail sales will be released. For both indicators, growth is expected, which may further strengthen investor confidence that the Fed will go on the fourth rate increase this year at a meeting in December. Now, according to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike next month is estimated at 76%, against 72% a week earlier. It is likely that this week this figure will grow even more, which will further increase the pressure on gold.

Today in US, in addition to some FOMC representatives speeches, economic data is not expected to be published, so the main influence on trading will most likely be provided by statistics from Europe. An important report on the labor market will be published in the UK today, a ZEW report will be presented in Germany, and representatives of the ECB Prat and Lautenschläger will make a speech.
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Weekly trading statistics from FortFS 05.11 - 11.11
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EUR / USD

The pressure in this market has increased, and judging by the previously weekly close, in the upcoming five-day week we can see new local minimum for the European currency. Today, in early European trading, EUR / USD pair broke through the strategic level of 1.1300 and marked a new half-year minimum. Now in priority we must focus upon shorts as the market has turned clearly bearish. Resistance is now located at 1.1300, and support is at 1.1230.

Trading recommendations - shorts

GBP / USD

USD dollar gains had a strong pressure on the British currency. On Friday, GBP/USD pair broke through the strategic support around 1.3000, and today the zone of 1.2920 was broken. The target of the current downward impulse is the area 1.2770 and further 1.2660.

Trading recommendations - shorts

AUD / USD

Last week the Australian dollar marked the highs around 0.7290 zone, after which it switched to decline amid the strengthening of the American dollar. Support is located in the area of 0.7190 and further in the area of 0.7160.

Trading recommendations - shorts

Gold

The market fell to a strategic support around $ 1205 - $ 1206. Now it all depends on whether this level will hold. In the event of increased pressure and a breakthrough of this zone, the market will move into to a new range of $ 1205- $ 1180. However, the bulls have a chance to stop falling based this strong technical mark.

Trading recommendations – careful longs around $ 1205
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