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Cumberland Advisors
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Is Fed Chairman Powell Dovish or Hawkish? Perhaps the most relevant aspect of his press conference was emphasis that pace of policy normalization would be gradual & data-dependent & that the FOMC would be flexible. https://buff.ly/2Gbqlcy #Markets #FederalReserve #InterestRate
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Thoughts about what you can do to help improve financial literacy, by Atlanta Fed president & CEO Raphael Bostic

First, reinforce financial literacy lessons at home. Personal financial patterns start taking hold early. One study by researchers at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom found that many money management habits of adults are established as early as age seven. So talk with your kids & grandkids about the importance of saving & investing. Maybe give them a piggy bank or set up a college fund that gets regular contributions. Take time with them to track the progress you make over the years. Make it fun.

A second thing you can do is to help ensure that personal finance classes remain a requirement here in Florida. If you are from a state that does not require these classes, press for them.

Third, you can push for financial literacy materials to be shared at the point of sale. Institutions that sell goods often offer some degree of financing to their customers. They should all do their part to ensure that people are making sound financial choices. I would argue that the days of “let the buyer beware” should have ended with the financial crisis a decade ago.

Finally, employers should offer access to financial literacy materials to their staff. If you have employees who are preoccupied with financial stress, they cannot be fully engaged in their work. Tools & pointers can help reduce that stress & help them become more fully productive. To help you with this one, we have placed at your tables some note cards we created that show you how to find financial tips on our website. As you engage with your staff & friends, feel free to use these materials liberally. https://buff.ly/2qbv3gp #FinancialLiteracyMonth #FinancialLiteracy
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China has promised to lift restrictions on foreign lenders in its massive banking system, creating a huge opportunity for America’s biggest banks.

The enormous size and rapid growth of China’s economy make it a tantalizing market for Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C) and other Wall Street firms. They stand to make gobs of money by lending more to Chinese businesses and people and providing investment banking expertise to an underserved market.

China is the largest foreign market for Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM), though each bank gets less than 2% of its revenue there.

“It’s a great opportunity for the big banks. They have the skills, money, capital and experience,” said David Kotok, founder chief investment officer at Cumberland Associates. https://buff.ly/2JZZbUj
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Sure, the recent volatility can’t help but feel stressful, given that it’s nearly twice what it was last year. But a doubling of the VIX doesn’t have to be a harbinger of future pain. Leo Chen notes the S&P 500 has returned an average of 6.3% over the six months following a doubling of the VIX. “The VIX certainly has felt feverishly high relative to the market in the past two months,” he explains. “Fortunately, a doubled VIX may not be bad news for the market.” https://buff.ly/2EOJHhV #markets #volatility #VIX
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Lunch in Punta Gorda - Nine people in a private room for lunch publish takeaways of our diverse & lively opinions, candid conversation, & exchange of views. We laughed about how that was like the dot plots where Feddies contribute. https://buff.ly/2qxJdsr #Markets #StockMarket
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The extreme bullish readings in late Dec & early Jan were a warning that capital had already been committed & a near-term pullback was possible. The timing of these sentiment indicators is not precise & is used only to add color to primary market-trend & relative-strength analysis. The short-term indicators tend to be self-correcting as greed quickly turns to fear & the market creates new opportunities.

As a strategy that attempts to identify strengths & weaknesses among the primary asset classes, Tactical Trend has a flexible asset allocation approach. Our attention is focused on where capital is being treated best. https://buff.ly/2GIAnln #Markets #ETFs #Stocks
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MoneyShow Panel Workshop - Rightsizing Retirement Accounts to Get Maximum Benefit. Join Robert Eisenbeis & Michael McNiven Tues May 15, 6PM - 6:45PM to discuss retirement accounts, high-fees, & how to spot poor advice/conflicts of interest. https://buff.ly/2qCGCwu #Retirement
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Somewhere along the line, the word “volatility” became code for a declining stock market. The reality is that rising volatility as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, “is only a reflection of volatile movements in the market — it is not a predictor of future returns,” David Kotok sent in a Friday note written by Leo Chen Ph.D. to the wealth management firm’s clients. Although the VIX has risen from a record low of below 10 in Nov to above 30 in Feb, that doesn’t necessarily portend trouble. Chen points out that whenever the VIX has doubled in a period of three months, the S&P 500 has gained an avg of 6.31% in the following 6 months.

The reasons for last year’s low volatility are pretty apparent. First, there’s little room for surprise when the Federal Reserve is telling you what it’s going to do, when it’s going to do it and by how much. Second, the Trump administration was focused on such market-friendly moves as reducing regulations and cutting corporate taxes. https://buff.ly/2vjcNXe
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There was a really mixed analysis of banking systems around the world. The US’s is strongest. Europe will reveal how weak their banking system is when they have the next recession. China has a troubled system, and several argued that you don’t become a world reserve currency as a communist country with a troubled banking system. https://buff.ly/2qxJdsr #Markets #Banking #China
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Sure, the recent volatility can’t help but feel stressful, given that it’s nearly twice what it was last year. But a doubling of the VIX doesn’t have to be a harbinger of future pain, according to Cumberland Advisors quantitative strategist Leo Chen. He notes the S&P 500 has returned an average of 6.3% over the six months following a doubling of the VIX. “The VIX certainly has felt feverishly high relative to the market in the past two months,” he explains. “Fortunately, a doubled VIX may not be bad news for the market.” https://buff.ly/2EOJHhV #markets #volatility #VIX
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