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Dirk Cotton
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Two Tweets and a Comment: Spending in Retirement
The inspirations for this week’s post are two tweets and a reader comment, which could be the title of a movie about retirement planning if anyone were ever desperate enough to film one. Retirement planner and researcher, Larry Frank [1] tweeted a link from...
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Am interesting data point with severe limitations as a planning tool.
Probability of Ruin in Pictures
Probability of Ruin in Pictures
theretirementcafe.com
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Probability of Ruin in Pictures
William Bengen calculated sustainable withdrawal rates (SWR) using historical S&P500 market returns since 1928 leading to the “4% Rule.” [1] More recently, Robert Shiller published stock market  returns data back to 1871 using the S&P Composite Index [2] . ...
Probability of Ruin in Pictures
Probability of Ruin in Pictures
theretirementcafe.com
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The Critical Factors of Portfolio Ruin Aren't Predictable
Probability of ruin and sequence of returns risk are probably the most widely-discussed topics in all of retirement finance and perhaps the least understood. Probability of ruin is not sequence of returns (SOR) risk. The sequence of portfolio returns we exp...
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Monte Carlo and Tales of Fat Tails
I recently read a white paper [1] claiming to show that Monte Carlo (MC) simulation "creates fat tails" and suggesting that constant-dollar withdrawals (the "4% Rule") are historically 100% safe. Before you log onto E*TRADE for that stock-buying binge, let ...
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Unpredictable Retirement Risk
My last few posts, The “Future” of Retirement Planning , The Limits of Simulation and Spending Rules and Simulation , have discussed different aspects of retirement planning, specifically, spending rules and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. Spending rules calcu...
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Spending rules and Monte Carlo Simulation are different tools for different jobs.
Spending Rules and Simulation
Spending Rules and Simulation
theretirementcafe.com
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