I dunno, what he describes is the situation many mature media industries find themselves in. It sounds similar to movies, books, or music. Sure, all of those industries have problems, but there are still plenty of people that get by just fine, a few that make astronomical amounts of money, a lot of people that fail, and a handful of big companies that rake in money running the whole show. That's the game industry right now, too, but we may end up evolving to be more like those other industries. On the other hand, you're seeing major changes coming to the music and book industries (and more slowly to the movie industry) of self-publishing artists doing well for themselves. That's happening with the indie movement in games, too. So this situation isn't unique to games. Plus this all seems very cyclical to me. Industries naturally go through times where supply or demand is higher, but the market balances itself out over time (if you believe standard economic theory). So even if we are approaching a period where supply outstrips demand, a few years later the reverse may be true. Regardless, though, the game industry is growing which is not something that all of those other industries can say. And I think we'll continue to grow for awhile longer. That growth means there will be more room for new developers to enter the market. Some years may be better than others to do so, but I don't think it's going to stop being true in the broad sense for awhile yet.
I have similar feelings about some of this. Interesting read nonetheless.
My hope is that we can look at those industries and learn from them. I personally think the movie industry for the most part is garbage. For me, I just want to find my niche and build products for those people. If I can pay my bills and live without having to worry about money, I'd be happy.
Ya, I agree that the movie industry is pretty broken, but I think books are doing alright. If you just want to be a niche developer, though, I think you're in great shape. I think the big wave of demand is in more casual games for the masses, so that's where most developers are headed. That leaves the more hardcore market with less supply and they've already shown that they're willing to really support the people making the games they want. So I feel like it's a great time to be doing what you're talking about.
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