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Fabio Kanczuk

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Copom Ata II
also read it. Agree it doesn’t hint at stopping. But I think they will, if
nothing surprise. My call is not based on their communication, but on my
impression of their dovishness.

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European Unicamp
Back from
London. I had the chance to talk with many European and UK economists. Fun. For some
reason European economists are very different from US economists. The latter
got their PhDs, spent some time at the Fed, think in terms of models. The
former are ...

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Dilma’s Inflection and Cliff Walking
article by Cristiano Romero, Valor newspaper. Economic policy seems in fact to
be in an inflection point. First the monetary policy, with the Central Bank
surprising the markets with higher rates. Now the fiscal policy, with the budget
contingency. My ...

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BRL or CDI Steepening?
Figure is
from BofA, suggesting the relative play of paying the steepening and selling
USDBRL. I like both the steepening and the long USDBRL, but what I found
interesting is that my intuition was in the other direction. I thought the BRL was more distorted...

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Weather and Inventories on US GDP
Still working on it but, at first sight, these effects together will take only 1pp from 2014Q1 growth. In the figure the growth contribution of change in inventories, which I used to run a simple ARMA, and got an effect of -0.5pp. The weather effect of -0.5...

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R$40bi contingency
surprise was not the number, or the R$30.5bi discretionary, but the flattening of
the di curve (Jan/23 in the picture). It’s OK that the Central Bank will use
this number to slow down, but it’s not OK to believe the Gov’t will deliver the
primary surplus.

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Brazuca Labor Report
Figures (from LCA, no, I didn't ask for permission), show (i) unemployment, (ii) real wage, (iii) inflation, (iv) employment Two interpretations 1)      Unemployment is falling due to
participation rate which, in its turn, can be explained by the FIES (stud...

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BoE implies FED
One idea circulating (Deutsche among others) is to use the Bank of England forward guidance to guess what the Fed will do. Rather
than choosing a new threshold, the Fed would say that (i) will hike later because there
are lots of idle capacity, (ii) then wi...

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Fomc minute
They were optimistic about growth, but it happened in January. In the figure the US surprise index (from citi) and a verticar bar showing the date of the meeting. Also story about large output gap (focus on long term unemployed and part time due to economic...

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The BofA View (for the US)
Today I’ve
listened to Merrill Lynch (better known as Mario Lanches) US scenario. Growth
will be strong (just consensus) and inflation will be low (interesting). They
believe there is large output gap, large labor idle capacity. Main data to
support their v...
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