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Stefano Viaggi
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Life is like a game of chess, changing with each move.
Life is like a game of chess, changing with each move.

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Piccole soddisfazioni...
Piccole soddisfazioni...
scaccodoppio.blogspot.be
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Un metodo matematico per comparare la qualità di gioco dei campioni del mondo di scacchi.
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In attesa del Natale un matto in 3 mosse molto carino.
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The Turkey & The Fallacy ~ by Nassim Taleb

A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys “with increased statistical confidence.”

The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before thanksgiving. Then comes that day when it is really not a very good idea to be a turkey.

So, with the butcher surprising it, the turkey will have a revision of belief—right when its confidence in the statement that the butcher loves turkeys is maximal.

What can a turkey learn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that 'little less' that may make all the difference.

The key here is such a surprise will be a Black Swan event; but just for the turkey, not for the butcher.

We can see from the turkey story the mother of all harmful mistakes: mistaking absence of evidence (of harm) for evidence of absence, a mistake that tends to prevail in intellectual circles.

Not being a turkey starts with figuring out the difference between true and manufactured stability.




(Artwork by: Craig Tracy)
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Lo gnomo invisibile
Lo gnomo invisibile
obongoforever.blogspot.com
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