Profile cover photo
Profile photo
Grain Comments
43 followers
43 followers
About
Grain Comments's posts

May 10, 2017 USDA Crop Report Snapshot


Spot futures trade as of 11:15 am:

• Wheat +4 ¼
• Soybeans +5 ¼
• Corn +6 ½


2016-2017 US carryout:

• Wheat 1.159 billion bushels (average trade guess: 1.163 billion bushels)
• Soybeans 435 million bushels (ATG: 441 million)
• Corn 2.295 billion bushels (ATG: 2.331 billion)

2017-2018 US carryout:

• Wheat 914 million bushels (average trade guess: 935 million bushels)
• Soybeans 480 million bushels (ATG: 566 million)
• Corn 2.110 billion bushels (ATG: 2.135 billion)


South American soybeans

• Brazil 111.6 million metric tons (vs 111.0 in Apri)
• Argentina 57.0 mmt (56.0)

South American corn

• Brazil 96.0 mmt (93.5 in April)
• Argentina 40.0 (38.5)

Additionally, the Kansas wheat crop was estimated at 289.8 million bushels, toward the high end of expectations.

Takeaways:

1. The main takeaway has nothing to do with the report. How do we get to 90 million planted corn acres in the US with wetness concerns in the Delta and ECB?
2. Impressive rebound in SA corn production dampening new crop corn demand by ~ 350 million bushels year to year.
3. If there is a bullish surprise it was new crop bean carryout below 500 million bushels.





This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.


USDA Stocks / Acres Report Snapshot: March 31, 2017


Spot futures trade as of 11:45 am:

• Wheat +8 ¼
• Soybeans -12 ¼
• Corn +5 ¾


March 1st Quarterly Stocks:

• Corn 8.616 billion bushels (versus average trade guess of 8.534 billion)
• Soybeans 1.7350 million (vs 1.684)
• All wheat 1.655 million (vs 1.627 million)

Acreage Estimates:

• Corn 90.0 million acres (versus expectations near 91)
• Soybeans 89.5 (vs ~ 88.2)
• All wheat 46.1 (vs 46.1)

The headline is the soybean acreage nearly matching that of corn. Remember: acreage for corn is more relatively more important than yield. Despite the inevitable calls for higher final acreage, the weather maps are not open enough to promote that idea. This should put a bottom in corn for the near term. As Jason Britt - @jasonlbritt - alluded to on twitter, farmers have had an opportunity to hedge at least $4.20 DEC futures each of the last 10 years. That level should be a natural target with this acreage.

It is somewhat impressive to see NOV 17 beans down only 5 ¾ cents currently.


This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.


February 9, 2017 USDA Crop Report Snapshot


Spot futures trade as of 11:15 am:

• Wheat +4 ½
• Soybeans -7 ½
• Corn -½


2016-2017 US carryout:

• Wheat 1.139 billion bushels (average trade guess: 1.180 billion bushels)
• Soybeans 420 million bushels (ATG: 410 million)
• Corn 2.320 billion bushels (ATG: 2.335 billion)

South American soybeans

• Brazil 104 million metric tons (unchanged from JAN)
• Argentina 55.5 mmt (-1.5 mmt)

South American corn

• Brazil 86.5 mmt (unchanged)
• Argentina 36.5 (unchanged)

Takeaways:

1. The story of the report is probably the 40 million bushel reduction in US wheat carryout, 30 million of that HRW.
2. The wet 2 week forecasts (3-8 inches) for southern Brazil and northern Argentina bear watching.
3. Corn has rallied and peaked into early summer the last 2 years, the surplus of bears around make it likely to happen again.





This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.


January 12, 2017 USDA Crop Report Snapshot


Spot futures trade as of 11:15 am:

• Wheat +8 ¾
• Soybeans +15
• Corn -2


December 1st, 2016 quarterly stocks (in billion bushels):

• Wheat 2.073 billion bushels (average trade guess: 2.056)
• Soybeans 2.895 (ATG: 2.935)
• Corn 12.384 (ATG: 12.300)


2016-2017 US carryout:

• Wheat 1.186 billion bushels (average trade guess: 1.148 billion bushels)
• Soybeans 420 million bushels (ATG: 468 million)
• Corn 2.355 billion bushels (ATG: 2.385 billion)


South American soybeans
• Brazil 104 million metric tons (+2 mmt)
• Argentina 57 mmt (unchanged)

Takeaways:

1. The story of the report is probably: a. the yield reduction in US soybeans (from 52.5 bpa down to 52.1) and b. HRW acres being 1.6 million under the average trade guess.
2. The modest reduction in US soy carryout sharpens the focus on overly wet conditions in ARG.
3. Two potential bearish inputs to keep in mind: a potential bin buster for Brazil for soybeans and corn, nervousness over protectionist rhetoric and policy from the Trump administration.





This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.


September 12, 2016 USDA Crop Report Snapshot


Spot futures trade as of 11:15 am:

• Wheat +2 ½
• Soybeans -15 ½
• Corn -2


New crop yields:

• Soybeans 50.6 bpa (average trade estimate: 49.2 bpa)
• Corn bpa 174.4 bpa (ATG: 173.4)


New crop US carryout:

• Wheat 1.100 billion bushels (average trade guess: 1.103 billion bushels)
• Soybeans 365 million bushels (ATG: 330 million)
• Corn 2.384 billion bushels (ATG: 2.329 billion)

Takeaways:

1. The soybean yield of 50.6 is the headliner, but given the USDA recent underestimation of demand, market participants will be quite skeptical of further carryout increases. Case in point: USDA retroactively dropped 2015-2016 carryout 60 million bushels today!
2. Forecasts are still wettish; this is not bearish.
3. Wheat and corn have bottomed in my humble(d) opinion.





This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.


August 12, 2016 USDA Crop Report Snapshot


Spot futures trade as of 11:10 am:

• Wheat -4 ½
• Soybeans -4 ¼
• Corn -5 ½


New crop yields:

• Soybeans 48.9 bpa (average trade estimate: 47.5 bpa)
• Corn bpa 175.1 bpa (ATG: 170.6)


New crop US carryout:

• Wheat 1.100 billion bushels (average trade guess: 1.114 billion bushels)
• Soybeans 330 million bushels (ATG: 316 million)
• Corn 2.409 billion bushels (ATG: 2.255 billion)

Takeaways:

1. Surprisingly muted reaction to very bearish production numbers, larger than the highest (FCStone) private yield estimate. USDA somewhat buying into big production, big demand row crop picture for 2016-2017.
2. Despite some predicting weather forecasts as “largely benign”, Delta and SE Corn Belt facing up to 10 inches of rain the next 7 days. This potential for damaged crops does bear watching.
3. Who blinks first the US farmer or the end user?





This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

USDA Stocks / Acres Report Snapshot: June 30, 2016


Spot futures trade as of 11:20 am:

• Wheat +1 ¼
• Soybeans +31 ¼
• Corn -8 ¾


June 1st Quarterly Stocks:
• Corn 4.722 billion bushels (versus average trade guess of 4.528 billion)
• Soybeans 870 million (vs 829)
• All wheat 981 million (vs 982 million)

Acreage Estimates
• Corn 94.1 million acres (versus expectations near 92.9)
• Soybeans 83.7 (vs ~ 83.8)
• All wheat 50.8 (vs 49.9)

Corn is getting oversold fast here with the double bearish inputs from the USDA. The aggressive, contra-seasonal soybean export pace has traders willing to look past the bearish stocks number. NC soybean / corn ratio finally pokes thru 3:1.

The GFS (cold) and European (hot) weather models for July 8-12 are in nearly complete temperature disagreement with some significant corn pollination and price effects at play. This is especially so for acreage in the northern Corn Belt that may miss the torrential rains expected to favor the southern Belt the 1st 5 days of July.

Ideas of necessary wheat feeding will try to limit meaningful upside for corn and wheat.



This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

June 10, 2016 USDA Crop Report Snapshot


Spot futures trade as of 11:25 am:

• Wheat -11 ½
• Soybeans -3 ¼
• Corn -4 ½


Old crop US carryout:

• All Wheat 980 million bushels (versus average trade guess of 981 million bushels and USDA May at 978)
• Soybeans 370 (385 million bushels / 400)
• Corn 1.708 (1.772 billion bu / 1.803)


New crop US carryout:

• All Wheat 1.050 billion bushels (versus average trade guess of 1.045 billion bushels and USDA May at 1.029)
• Soybeans 260 million bushels (289 million bushels / 305)
• Corn 2.008 billion bushels (2.125 billion bu / 2.153)

South American production:

• Brazilian soybeans 97.0 (versus USDA May at 99.0 million metric tons)
• Argentine soybeans 56.5 (56.5)

Takeaways:

1. Market taking a ‘buy the rumor sell the fact’ approach currently to supportive old crop row crop data.
2. Sunday night models will be more important than USDA report, 2-3 inches forecasted for the northern areas of the Corn Belt early next week.
3. Prediction: USDA will continue to lower new crop corn balance sheet, this will be the last 2.0 billion + bushel estimate.





This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

April 12, 2016 USDA Crop Report Snapshot


Spot futures trade as of 11:10 am:

• Wheat +3 ¾
• Soybeans -1 ¾
• Corn +2


Old crop US carryout:

• All Wheat 976 million bushels (versus average trade guess of 977 million bushels and USDA March at 966)
• Soybeans 445 (454 million bushels / 460)
• Corn 1.862 (1.845 billion bu / 1.837)


South American production:

• Brazilian soybeans 100.0 (average trade guess of 100.2 million metric tons and USDA March at 100.0)
• Argentine soybeans 59.0 (59.2 / 58.5)

Takeaways:

1. No meaningful surprises in today’s data. Market believes SA production estimates will continue to creep lower due to the late heat, dryness in BRZ and overly wet conditions in ARG.
2. Soybeans are beginning to buy acres back from corn in the US. Soybean prices are overdue for a breather or correction.
3. Wheat price prospects are limited without some production issue in the Black Sea or EU.





This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.


March 31, 2016 Stocks and Acreage Report Snapshot


Spot futures trade as of 11:20 am:

• Wheat +7 ¼             
• Soybeans -1         
• Corn -12 ½                  


3/1/2016 Quarterly Stocks (billion bushels):

• All Wheat 1.372 (versus average trade guess of 1.356 billion bushels)  
• Soybeans 1.531   (1.556) 
• Corn 7.808 (7.801)


Prospective Plantings (million acres):

• Winter Wheat 36.2 (versus average trade guess of 36.925 million and USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 36.609)
• Soybeans 82.2 (83.057 / 82.500) 
• Corn 93.6 (89.972 / 90.000)  

Takeaways:

1. The corn acreage estimate is easily the highlight and it is numbing, USDA indicating 3rd highest acreage since 1944. 
2. The stocks figures are non-events across the board.
3. Even with the existing fund shorts in corn and the probability that crude has bottomed and the dollar has topped, this acreage number keeps us from sniffing $4 spot futures this spring.





This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies.  Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.  Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Wait while more posts are being loaded