'...In the United States, two illusions have been important recently in financial markets. One is the carefully nurtured perception that President-elect Donald Trump is a business genius who can apply his deal-making skills to make America great again. The other is a naturally occurring illusion: the proximity of Dow 20,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been above 19,000 since November, and countless news stories have focused on its flirtation with the 20,000 barrier – which might be crossed by the time this commentary is published. Whatever happens, Dow 20,000 will still have a psychological impact on markets....'
If existing economic theory told us that such events should be predictable, then maybe there is a crisis. But it is obvious that economics says no such thing.
In fact, to the extent that economics says anything about the timing of such events it is that they are virtually impossible to predict; impossible to predict, but most definitely not impossible events.....'
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Speculative markets have always been vulnerable to illusion, and in the US, two have been sustaining asset-price gains since November's pres
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It is a post-financial-crisis myth that austerity-minded conservative governments always favor fiscal prudence while redistribution-oriented
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One of the more striking developments of 2016 was the emergence of a “post-fact” world, in which virtually all authoritative information sou
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China confounded widespread expectations of a sharp slowdown in economic growth in 2016. But the longer China's credit boom continues, the l
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