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iñaki caminos otermin
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BUITER: No Grexit, GRIMBO
'...Capital controls to persist, Grexit risks have risen further. The ECB is due to meet on Monday to discuss emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) for Greek banks.
In our view, despite legal issues and differences of opinion on its Governing Council, the ECB may for now stop short of reducing the ELA limit or increase collateral haircuts to avoid interfering with the decisions of Eurozone leaders. But
the ECB is unlikely to raise the cap for ELA unless and until prospects for a bailout agreement improve, meaning that capital controls, deposit withdrawal controls and
ATM withdrawal limits remain in place and likely tighten. In the absence of an agreement, Greece will be in Grimbo, and would slide towards Grexit....'
 
Greek Referendum - Fearing Grexit, Preparing for Grimbo

Citi has just published (yet) another research note on the Greek kerfuffle: "Greek Referendum - Fearing Grexit, Preparing for Grimbo", by Willem Buiter, Tina M. Fordham, Guillaume Menuet, Ebrahim Rahbari, Antonio Montilla, Michael Saunders and Tiia A Lehto, Citi Research, Economics, EMEA, Global Economics View, 5 July 2015.

The main points are the following:

Landslide NO raises Grexit risk but significant uncertainties remain.
Greek voters resoundingly rejected the creditors’ package with a NO vote in excess of 60%. This is a clear short-term victory for the Greek government, which convinced its electorate that a NO vote did not amount to a vote for Grexit but would allow the Greek government to negotiate a better offer from its creditors. But in our view, the attempt to seek a better deal may well fail, given the lack of trust and goodwill between the Greek government and its creditors. The failure of negotiations could trigger early elections in Greece, the outcome of which is very uncertain. Political uncertainty, extreme financial stress and deepening economic weakness in Greece are likely to persist.

Next steps: The heads of the European Commission, the ECB and the Eurogroup will have a conference call on Monday morning and the Euro Working Group of deputy finance ministers will meet on Monday. Eurozone leaders will hold a summit on Tuesday. The Greek government stated that it would aim to return to negotiations on Monday.

Capital controls to persist, Grexit risks have risen further. The ECB is due to meet on Monday to discuss emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) for Greek banks. In our view, despite legal issues and differences of opinion on its Governing Council, the ECB may for now stop short of reducing the ELA limit or increase collateral haircuts to avoid interfering with the decisions of Eurozone leaders. But the ECB is unlikely to raise the cap for ELA unless and until prospects for a bailout agreement improve, meaning that capital controls, deposit withdrawal controls and ATM withdrawal limits remain in place and likely tighten. In the absence of an agreement, Greece will be in Grimbo, and would slide towards Grexit.

The full works can be found here: https://ir.citi.com/jsKi1J4LOW5OQU6Pke3vyoHckNvIfAmpD6czzt62TiXKhSBHITY4QjzjJv%2BziTZs
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WOLFGANG MUNCHAU (FT): iT's difficult to say what is going to happen now. To reach a deal will be more difficult. Probably, the only point is to reach an agreement to cover the refinancing of the banking system. Anything before Grexit, the worst case scenario.
©ReutersThe Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras votes in Athens It is not that hard to explain why Alexis Tsipras won the referendum by a landslide. It is a
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Wolf: devil or deeply blue sea for greeks
How would I vote in the referendum on the eurozone’s economic programme if I were Greek? The answer, alas, is that I am unsure. If I believed Greece could make a success of going it alone, I would surely vote against the programme. But I could not
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GIDEON RACHMAN: '...Es probable que esos dos deseos democráticos puedan reconciliarse en el referéndum del próximo domingo. Si el pueblo griego vota a favor de acepta las demandas de sus acreedores, las que acaba de rechazar su Gobierno, Grecia podría permanecer en el euro y en la UE. Sin embargo, sería una decisión de una nación intimidada, Grecia seguiría siendo miembro de la UE. Pero su sueño europeo habrá muerto...'
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En los últimos 30 años Europa ha adoptado su propia versión del "final de la historia". Empezó a ser conocida como la Unión Europea. La...
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roubini: '...
el abandono por la Reserva Federal de los tipos de interés oficiales en el nivel de cero causará diversos problemas a las economías con mercados en ascenso que tienen grandes necesidades de endeudamiento interno y externo, grandes volúmenes de deuda denominada en dólares y fragilidades normativas y macroeconómicas. ....
Pero una vez más esos problemas son autoinfligidos y muchas economías en ascenso tienen fundamentos macroeconómicos y estructurales más fuertes, lo que les brindará una mayor capacidad de resistencia cuando la Reserva Federal aumente los tipos de interés. Cuando así sea, algunas sufrirán más que otras, pero, con algunas excepciones carentes de importancia sistémica, no tiene por qué haber dificultades y crisis generalizadas....'
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krugman: ...'until now Syriza has been in an awkward place politically, with voters both furious at ever-greater demands for austerity and unwilling to leave the euro. It has always been hard to see how these desires could be reconciled; it’s even harder now. The referendum will, in effect, ask voters to choose their priority, and give Tsipras a mandate to do what he must if the troika pushes it all the way....'
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FT: Questions and answers about an eventual Grexit
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MARK ROE: 3 channels to speak the effects of greek debt crisis: i) banks ii) other countries iii) strange political outcomes
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martin FELDSTEIN: '....La idea básica es que se puede aumentar el nivel de ocupación y reducir el desempleo eliminando barreras a la creación de empleo y bajando el tipo impositivo marginal. En cambio, es probable que prolongar la flexibilización monetaria o aumentar el gasto fiscal para generar más demanda se convierta en más inflación en vez de más creación de empleo....'
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STIGLITZ votaría NO
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KRUGMAN: '...I would vote no, for two reasons. First, much as the prospect of euro exit frightens everyone — me included — the troika is now effectively demanding that the policy regime of the past five years be continued indefinitely. Where is the hope in that? Maybe, just maybe, the willingness to leave will inspire a rethink, although probably not. But even so, devaluation couldn’t create that much more chaos than already exists, and would pave the way for eventual recovery, just as it has in many other times and places. Greece is not that different...'
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LORENZO BINI SMAGHI: ...'ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to maintain the integrity of the monetary union, even if one of its members opts out. The recent sentence of the European court of justice has strengthened the ECB’s hand in that respect.
The second, more subtle message refers to “the commitment by ministers from euro area member states to take all the necessary measures to further improve the resilience of euro area economies and to stand ready to take decisive steps to strengthen Economic and Monetary Union”....'
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