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Charles Wyplosz 20 July 2015

There is a high likelihood that Grexit will be back on the table. This column argues that Greece can strengthen its negotiating position if it is prepared for exit. Grexit remains a disastrous choice, but it has become the default option for Greece and its creditors. However, preparing for Grexit does not mean leaving the Eurozone. A credible threat point may deliver a better outcome. The purpose of the exercise should be to make Grexit a plausible solution, then not to do it.
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VARUFAKIS:'... Why do Greece’s creditors refuse to move on debt restructuring before any new loans are negotiated? And why do they prefer a much larger new loan package than necessary? 
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LEGRAIN: '... To make such a system credible, a mechanism for restructuring the debt of insolvent governments would be created. This, together with reform of the rules covering the capitalization of banks – which incorrectly treat all sovereign debt as risk-free and do not cap banks’ holdings of it – would enable markets, not Germany, to rein in truly excessive borrowing. Ideally, the ECB would also be given a mandate to act as a lender of last resort for illiquid but solvent governments. Such changes could garner broad support – and would serve Germany’s intereses. ...'
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SKIDELSKY for living income vs mínimum wage. '....
As robots increasingly replace human labor, humans will need incomes to replace wages from work. Whereas tax credits point in the direction of replacement incomes, raising the minimum wage points in the opposite direction, by making income more dependent on jobs....'
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SIMON NIXON (WSJ): '.... everyone in Greece now knows the alternative to implementing the bailout program. For the first time since the crisis began, they know that the threat of euro exit is real.
They know that political support for a third bailout package in some parts of the eurozone is wafer thin—indeed Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has acknowledged he will have to break his own electoral promises to deliver a new aid package. That should change the terms of political debate.
The second is that Mr. Tsipras has clearly decided where he stands. He is now the dominant figure in Greek politics, with a powerful personal mandate. By choosing to keep Greece in the eurozone and to abide by its rules, it now falls on him to transform Greece. ...'
There’s a glimmer of hope for both sides after the latest deal on Greece
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EICHENGREEN: european project shouldn't be sacrificed in the altar of german public opinion
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MUNCHAU (FT); '-...Once you strip the eurozone of any ambitions for a political and economic union, it changes into a utilitarian project in which member states will coldly weigh the benefits and costs, just as Britain is currently assessing the relative advantages or disadvantages of EU membership. In such a system, someone, somewhere, will want to leave sometime. And the strong political commitment to save it will no longer be there either. ...'
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A few things that many of us took for granted, and that some of us believed in, ended in a single weekend. By forcing Alexis Tsipras into a humiliating defeat, Greece’s creditors have done a lot more than bring about regime change in Greece or
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MOISI: '... Perhaps the most important difference between the two deals is that Greece’s fate, though relevant to the world economy, mostly concerns Europe, whereas the accord with Iran has far-reaching consequences, from the balance of power in the Middle East to global nuclear non-proliferation. Both are incomplete and provisional, fueling skepticism among their critics. But it also seems clear that both agreements were the best that negotiators could achieve. To the extent that time heals wounds, that is reason enough for hope....'
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FISHER:'... During the long night of negotiations over Greece on July 12-13, something fundamental to the European Union cracked. Since then, Europeans have been living in a different EU...'
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KRUGMAN: '...Can Greece pull off a successful exit? Will Germany try to block a recovery? (Sorry, but that’s the kind of thing we must now ask.)
The European project — a project I have always praised and supported — has just been dealt a terrible, perhaps fatal blow. And whatever you think of Syriza, or Greece, it wasn’t the Greeks who did it...'
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SCHILLER: '..Will alpha eventually go to zero for every imaginable investment strategy? More fundamentally, is the day approaching when, thanks to so many smart people and smarter computers, financial markets really do become perfect, and we can just sit back, relax, and assume that all assets are priced correctly? ...'
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MARTIN SANDBU (FT): '... the main French motivation for monetary union in the first place. Grexit would have eliminated the main raison d’être for the single currency as seen from Paris.
Finally, Greece capitulated because the European Central Bank forced it to do so. ...the ECB forced a shutdown of the Greek banking system and made clear it would only let it function again once a deal on sovereign finances had been struck.
This has established beyond any doubt that the independence of the eurozone’s central bank from politicians is nothing of the sort. Far from being independent, the ECB does governments’ bidding. But its dependence is selective — and that is something that should worry the citizens of eurozone nations beyond Greece....'
At least Alexis Tsipras avoided having to send Greece’s fairest one hundred maidens in tribute to Berlin. Apart from that, the Greek prime minister has had to concede on pretty much everything the other members of the euro demanded. The details are
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