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ANATOLE KALETSKY debate: '... liberal imperialism followed the 1840s revolutions; Keynesianism followed the Great Depression of the 1930s; and Thatcher-Reagan market fundamentalism followed the Great Inflation of the 1970s. Could Trumpism – understood as a lagged response to the 2008 crisis – herald the emergence of a new capitalist regime?...'
Donald Trump’s presidency is a symptom of an interregnum between economic orders – a period that will result in a new balance between state and market. While his administration’s economic policies are unlikely to provide the right answer, they may at least show the world what not to do.
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PHILIPPE LEGRAIN: '....Like China and Germany, Britain exports much more to America than it imports from the US. Trump hates such “unfair” trade deficits, and has pledged to eliminate them. Be careful what you wish for, Prime Minister.....'
British Prime Minister Theresa May is leading the UK toward a very hard Brexit in 2019 – and potentially off a cliff. Her objectives for negotiating with the EU make clear her intention to prioritize hardline Brexiteers’ demands over the country’s economic interests.
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ROBERT SHILLER: 2 illusions in USA
'...In the United States, two illusions have been important recently in financial markets. One is the carefully nurtured perception that President-elect Donald Trump is a business genius who can apply his deal-making skills to make America great again. The other is a naturally occurring illusion: the proximity of Dow 20,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been above 19,000 since November, and countless news stories have focused on its flirtation with the 20,000 barrier – which might be crossed by the time this commentary is published. Whatever happens, Dow 20,000 will still have a psychological impact on markets....'
Speculative markets have always been vulnerable to illusion, and in the US, two have been sustaining asset-price gains since November's presidential election. But seeing the folly in markets provides no clear advantage in forecasting outcomes, because changes in the force of an illusion are difficult to predict.
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The economic peril of aggrieved nationalism (MARTIN WOLF ) : '. . . Authoritarian nationalism potentially has such appeal. It has moved into the core of the world system. That changes everything....'
Markets data delayed by at least 15 minutes. © THE FINANCIAL TIMES LTD . FT and 'Financial Times' are trademarks of The Financial Times Ltd. The Financial Times and its journalism are subject to a self-regulation regime under the FT Editorial Code of Practice. Financial Times Close. International ...
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There is no crisis in economics (Charlie Bibby): '..Andy Haldane, my friend and colleague of many years on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, seems worried about the crisis in economics. But what is this “crisis”? Did it manifest itself in a failure to predict a real crisis, the one that occurred in the financial sector in 2007-08?

If existing economic theory told us that such events should be predictable, then maybe there is a crisis. But it is obvious that economics says no such thing.

In fact, to the extent that economics says anything about the timing of such events it is that they are virtually impossible to predict; impossible to predict, but most definitely not impossible events.....'


Markets data delayed by at least 15 minutes. © THE FINANCIAL TIMES LTD . FT and 'Financial Times' are trademarks of The Financial Times Ltd. The Financial Times and its journalism are subject to a self-regulation regime under the FT Editorial Code of Practice. Financial Times Close. International ...
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KENNETH ROGOFF: '....If a Trump presidency does entail massive borrowing – along with faster growth and higher inflation – a sharp rise in global interest rates could easily follow, putting massive pressure on weak points around the world (for example, Italian public borrowing) and on corporate borrowing in emerging markets. Many countries will benefit from US growth (if Trump does not simultaneously erect trade barriers). But anyone counting on interest rates staying low because conservative governments are averse to deficits needs a history lesson....'
It is a post-financial-crisis myth that austerity-minded conservative governments always favor fiscal prudence while redistribution-oriented progressives view large deficits as the world’s biggest free lunch. This simplistic perspective badly misses the true underlying political economy of deficits.
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KERMAL DERVIS & KARIM FODA: comparison between scandinavian economies and USA: great differences in taxes weigh, public spending, education spending and labour flexibility.
Developed-economy policymakers are seeking a recipe for inclusive economic growth, whereby high rates of investment and rapid innovation are pursued alongside measures to reduce income inequality. The Scandinavian model is often invoked in support of this approach, but could it really work in a country like the US?
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JIM O'NEILL (ex GS): '....The prevailing economic forecast for 2017 predicts that, under President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration, the US will expand its fiscal-stimulus policies, the dollar will strengthen, and emerging markets will suffer. But there are four reasons to doubt the conventional wisdom....'
The prevailing economic forecast for 2017 predicts that, under President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration, the US will expand its fiscal-stimulus policies, the dollar will strengthen, and emerging markets will suffer. But there are four reasons to doubt the conventional wisdom.
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FT: '....el estancamiento de los salarios de la clase media occidental ha generado una frustración que no puede aplacarse fácilmente. Los sistemas políticos democráticos sufren presiones para encontrar formas de abordar los problemas que plantea el populismo sin renunciar a los beneficios que puede aportar el libre comercio. Países como China tienen que jugar un papel en el proceso adquiriendo una mayor sensibilidad a las consecuencias externas que sus propios cambios estructurales han provocado en Occidente....'
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En cambio, la mayoría de los políticos europeos han adoptado una postura más meditada para aplacar las tendencias populistas. El hecho de que EEUU...
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Populism will not lead to a better world( MARTIN WOLF ) : ' el populismo ingenuo ahora en auge no tardará en demostrar que es mucho peor que la arrogancia de la élite de Davos.. ..'
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Those calling for change should be careful what they wish for, writes Martin Wolf
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A warning for the losers of the liberal elite (WOLFGANG MÜNCHAU ) : '. The truth is that our ability to forecast the future beyond the current quarter is limited. We certainly cannot forecast the economic impact of a complex political event, such as Brexit or the election of a new US president. Too many future unforeseen events will intrude.....'
Markets data delayed by at least 15 minutes. © THE FINANCIAL TIMES LTD . FT and 'Financial Times' are trademarks of The Financial Times Ltd. The Financial Times and its journalism are subject to a self-regulation regime under the FT Editorial Code of Practice. Financial Times Close. International ...
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JEFFREY FRANKEL: '...In some cases, however, Trump will run into obstacles in translating his crowd-pleasing sound bites into reality. In repealing Obamacare, for example, Republicans are likely to be stymied by the absence of an alternative that does not take away the health insurance of 20 million Americans or raise health-care costs. Given this, they may end up making only minor substantive changes to the ACA and then slapping a new name on it – the analog of building a “beautiful” quarter-mile wall along the Mexican border to serve as a backdrop for photo opportunities....'
Upon entering office in 2009, US President Barack Obama confronted conditions more adverse than any incoming president had faced in many decades. Yet, despite his opponents' obstructionism, Obama achieved crucial economic and foreign-policy successes.
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From Economic Analysis to Inclusive Growth by Kemal Derviş and Karim Fod...
www.project-syndicate.org

Developed-economy policymakers are seeking a recipe for inclusive economic growth, whereby high rates of investment and rapid innovation are

Brexit Into Trumpland by Philippe Legrain - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

British Prime Minister Theresa May is leading the UK toward a very hard Brexit in 2019 – and potentially off a cliff. Her objectives for neg

The Illusions Driving Up US Asset Prices by Robert J. Shiller - Project ...
www.project-syndicate.org

Speculative markets have always been vulnerable to illusion, and in the US, two have been sustaining asset-price gains since November's pres

In Defense of Globalization by Jim O'Neill - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

Thanks to globalization, economic inequality among countries has declined sharply in the past 20 years, reflecting not only China’s rise, bu

The Trump Deficit by Kenneth Rogoff - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

It is a post-financial-crisis myth that austerity-minded conservative governments always favor fiscal prudence while redistribution-oriented

The Emergence of a Post-Fact World by Francis Fukuyama - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

One of the more striking developments of 2016 was the emergence of a “post-fact” world, in which virtually all authoritative information sou

Rethinking Labor Mobility by Harold James - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

Humans are ingenious and adaptable, but only in some circumstances; so we must continue to search for viable opportunities that allow people

Comrade Trump and the Truth by Chris Patten - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

When US President-elect Donald Trump takes office this month, Americans will be more divided than they have been in years. Never before has

A Socialist Market Economy With Chinese Contradictions by Adair Turner -...
www.project-syndicate.org

China confounded widespread expectations of a sharp slowdown in economic growth in 2016. But the longer China's credit boom continues, the l

Trump’s Uncertain New World by Jorge G. Castañeda - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

The only certainty about Donald Trump’s incoming administration is the uncertainty that will attend it. Remaining unpredictable may be a suc

Trump’s Extreme Oligarchy by Simon Johnson - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

US President-elect Donald Trump is stuffing his cabinet with rich people. And the essentials of the incoming administration's economic-polic

Keynes Reborn by Koichi Hamada - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

Forty years after John Maynard Keynes published his General Theory, a counterrevolution took hold, reflecting sharp criticism of the fiscal

The Destructive Power of Inflation by Martin Feldstein - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

Argentina’s experience holds two crucial lessons for other countries. First, price stability is fragile, and the inflation rate can rise rap

The Coming Brexit Tragedy by Mark Leonard - Project Syndicate
www.project-syndicate.org

In Brexit pre-negotiations, both UK and EU officials have ignored the far-reaching implications of Donald Trump’s election as US president –