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Peter Wang
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Peter Wang

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What You Should Remember About the Markets
Because I have been an investment professional for more than 40 years, I sometimes get asked my opinion about the markets. These questions usually come from those who invest without  a systematic approach toward investing. Here are some typical questions an...
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Peter Wang

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The newbie knife DIY project is done. One great tomato slicer! — with Leslie Beauchamp Wang.
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Peter Wang

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Peter Wang

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Best simple explanation I've encountered of the deflationary mess we're in...
So where's my free lunch?I was asked once again why all this central-bank money-printing along with global zero-interest-rate or even negative-interest-rate policies haven't caused a big bout of infla
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Peter Wang

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‘Complex is hollow and Simple is DEEP’. Its not often that you can give a 5* rating to a book. But this one deserves it and I will tell you Y. I follow a simple heuristic in life, which…
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Peter Wang

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NEW FINDINGS!

I am a big fan of tactical investment approaches, those that get you out of the market as a large decline is building. That body of knowledge has been popularized by Mebane Faber and Gary Antonacci, both of whom have books and SSRN whitepapers. You can Google / Bing them. I have been doing DIY Faber and Antonacci.

Recently, I found professional advisory services that offer money management based on Faber and Antonacci strategies. I am going to split up most of my money and give it to both of these firms. That will reduce the risk of a DIY screw-up, emotionally based decisions, and will make life less stressful generally, though I still have to implement DIY for my employer's retirement plans.

Rick Shrier
http://www.shrierassociates.com/
Min $500,000
Fee: 1.15% all inclusive (no other hidden fees)

Licenses Gary Antonacci's proprietary "Enhanced Global Equities Momentum" (E-GEM) signals. Regular GEM is detailed in his book. After Shrier's fees are subtracted, E-GEM has a theoretical backtested performance (1971-2015) of 18.25%, with one down year, a loss of less than 1%, which was 2008. The maximum temporary drawdown was -24%. The improved E-GEM performance more than pays the Adviser fees, over time. Theoretically.

18.25% is huge. $10,000 in 1971 turned into $1.89 million. Even if you captured only half of that in reality... $944k... that still is a killer 16.44%. The S&P500 from 1971-2015 returned 10.1% during 1972-2015, and had nine calendar years with losses, the worst year was a withering -37%.

The DIY GEM, which anyone can do yourself (I verified independently that it works), returned 16.8% over the same 1971-2015 period. Also killed a 100% passive stock allocation.


The AlphaArchitect
http://www.alphaarchitect.com/
Min $50,000
Fee: 0.25% robot advisor

Mostly based on Mebane Faber's 5-fund mimic of the Ivy League endowments, referred to as "IVY-5", with a mix of 10-month moving average risk control and Gary Antonacci style momentum risk control. The portfolio spend more time in cash than Antonacci. The risk and returns are less. The backtest is posted here, go down to bullet point 4.9. The results match the returns of the 100% S&P500 allocation, around 10% during 1992-2013, but much less risk of loss.

If you're going to go with a robot... go with this one. NOT Betterment, not WealthFront. Those are dumb, passive robots. They will stare in the face of a withering market decline (the stuff since August 2015 is just a warm up), and just rebalance you on the way down. They will not get you out to cash.

Faber and Antonacci do so well because they aim to "win by not losing".
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Peter Wang

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@hsabank HSABANK charged me $25 to close my account and transfer funds to another HSA Custodian? Is that even legal?
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Peter Wang

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I need a basic, no-frills used car for one of my kids. I will pay much more than a dealer would pay on a trade. Please let me know, thanks.
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Peter Wang

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I survived this week's layoffs. We lost 15%? Schlumberger cut 10,000 yesterday. My friend got cut. Total 2015-2016 layoffs at Schlumberger = 34,000. A football stadium full of suffering. Southwestern Energy is going to cut 40%... FOURTY PERCENT.
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Chevron:  total of 7000  BP:  4000 more announced.

Peter Wang

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I know nobody asked me for my opinion, but... time-series momentum (TMOM) with a 1-year look-back and the 200 day moving average (MA) both suggest to lighten up on the US Stock Market at this time. "Pull your safety belt tight across your lap". Some industry sectors are doing better than the S&P500 as a whole.
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