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Cam Hui
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Negative real yields = Equity sell signal?
An reader asked me my opinion about this tweet by Nautilus Research . According to this study, equities have performed poorly once the inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury yield turns negative. With real yields barely positive today, Nautilus went on to ask ...

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Watch what they do, not just what they say
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The " Ultimate Market Timing Model " is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultima...

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Why the S&P 500 won't get to 2400 (in this rally)
Mid-week market update: As the major market averages make new all-time highs, I conducted an informal and unscientific Twitter poll. I was surprised to see how bullish respondents were. Let's just cut to the chase - forget it. Neither the fundamental nor th...

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Cry Havoc, and let slip the dogs of (trade) war!
The WSJ reported that the Trump administration is considering a new tactic in managing its trade relationship with China. Here is the Bloomberg recap for those without a WSJ subscription: Under the plan, the commerce secretary would designate the practice o...

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Why this uncanny recession indicator may not work this time
The chart below depicts the yield curve, as measured by spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, (blue line) and equity returns (grey line). The yield curve has been an uncanny recession forecaster. It has inverted ahead of every single recess...

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A blow-off top, or a wimpy top?
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The " Ultimate Market Timing Model " is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultima...

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What's wrong with the VIX?
Mid-week market update : Increasingly, I have seen cases being made for an equity market correction. This Bloomberg article, "Five charts that say not all is well in the markets" summarizes the bear case well. Uncertainty is at a record high: The number of ...

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Peak populism?
Technical analysts often use the magazine cover indicator  as a contrarian indicator. When an idea has become so commonplace that it becomes the cover of a major magazine, the public is all-in and it's time to sell. The Economist reported on an ad hoc study...

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Still bullish after my chartist's round-the-world trip
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The " Ultimate Market Timing Model " is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultima...

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An "island reversal" sell signal?
In response to my last post (see Watching the USD for clues to equity market direction ), an alert reader pointed that the SPX had formed a bearish island reversal . Wikipedia explained the island reversal formation this way: In stock trading and technical ...
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