What are the odds of a satellite re-entering over land?

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/04/17/desktop-project-part-23-what-are-the-odds-of-a-satellite-re-entering-over-water/

I love this one! I tell people the Earth is about 75% water on its surface, so the odds favor a re-entering satellite burning up over an ocean somewhere (the point being the odds of someone getting hit are that much lower). But is that really true? Not all satellites come down along the same path, and that changes the situation. An orbital debris specialist does the math.. and it turns out the answer really is pretty close!
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