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Andrew “Andy” Gregorio
I am a meteorologist with decades of experience...a professed computer geek and nerd and I am going back to college for a degree in computer science
I am a meteorologist with decades of experience...a professed computer geek and nerd and I am going back to college for a degree in computer science
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High winds tonight through tomorrow...
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Just a quick update on Wednesday afternoon/evening weather. Looking a bit more "favorable" for strong convection. Rather impressive instability and wind parameters on forecast data suites from most models.

Could be strong thunderstorms or even strong "convective" cells without any lightning or thunder. In either case could be locally strong winds of the downburst/microburst type and even a few isolated supercellular discrete cells during the afternoon/early evening.

Once again it is a "textbook" L(ow)C(ape)H(igh)S(hear) [LCHS] setup, typical of spring. Will keep you post as time permits on Tuesday and Wednesday. Have a lot of personal business to take care of both days so keep tabs on the latest forecasts on WNYT/ News Channel 13.

Below are some forecast upper-air soundings from the afternoon models suites: The first 2 colums starting on the left are from the NAM and the following 2 columns are from the GFS for selected locations around ENY and MA. Zoom in to see which locations, they are for. They are both very similar in terms of forecasting the potential for strong/severe weather on Wednesday. For March the instability is more than adequate. In addition, even short range severe weather ensemble probabilities (not shown but seen by me) for the arae for WED Mar 1 are quite high.

I would not be surprised to see the SPC upgrade the SWODY for us come TUES.
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2/27/17
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Wednesday is the 1st day of March, the beginning of meteorological Spring!
Looks like record warmth too with highs in the mid to upper 60s for the Hudson Valley along with an occasional gusty S breeze and showery rains on the increase as the afternoon wears on. Thunderstorms are possible, too. Once again some storms could be locally strong or severe. SPC has (parts of the 518) area in Marginal threat for severe storms.

Like last Saturday, Wednesday looks to be what is called a Low Cape/High Shear environment (LCHS) for storms. This is often a typical setup in early spring (and fall). Strongest instability is in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere while the wind speed and direction tend to rapidly increase and change direction (veer) with height. Rather impressive forecast upper-air soundings for a few spots from around the region for Wednesday afternoon 4 pm from the GFS posted below.

A strong cold front will move through the area during the predawn hours of Thursday followed by a shot of colder air,
Still expect tumbling temps come Thursday with winds becoming NW during the day 20-35 mph gusts to 45-50 mph at times.
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2/27/17
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Gusty winds, warm weather today. a strong cold front will move through producing band of heavy rain as it blows through this afternoon and evening. This band of rain may also have locally strong damaging winds associated with it. There is also the chance for some isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms too. Strong winds main threat with thunderstorms, followed by marginally severe hail threat. Heavy downpours, too in any showers or storms ahead of the front.

Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday for the Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks, Saratoga-Lake George Region and Southern Vermont. The combination of snow melt and heavy rain may cause flooding of some rivers and streams in the watch area. This said, locally heavy rains this afternoon and evening could cause some flooding throughout the region, especially in low spots, areas of poor drainage, as well as, ponding of water on roads.
Enjoy the warmth for once the strong cold front moves through this evening some will get snow by tonight and it will stick, too.
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2/25/17
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Latest on our weekend cold snap and winter storm for New England and the Southeast States.

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Updated my weather web site. Again it is a work in progress! Thanks for viewing!

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inter Wx Advisory TN Valley-Mid-Atlantic-NYC-SNE for Fri. Winter Storm Watches/Warnings MS/AL/GA/NC/VA for Fr-Sa for major winter storm.
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Forecast for Glens Falls for the next 48 hours and 7 Days. Temps go "see-saw" but no big storms either. #nywx #518wx
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1/5/17
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Expect a significant lake effect snow for the snowbelts of Lakes Erie and Ontario. For Lake Ontario it will be a yardstick event. #nywx
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1/4/17
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