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Jason Smith
I am a physicist who messes around with economic theory.
I am a physicist who messes around with economic theory.

Jason Smith's posts

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What mathematical theory is for
Blackboard photographed by Spanish artist Alejandro Guijarro at the University of California, Berkeley. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, there has been much discussion about the use of math in economics. Complaints range from "too much math" to "not...

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I have put together the 0.1-beta version of IEtools ( Information Equilibrium tools ) for python (along with a demo jupyter notebook looking at the unemployment rate and NGDP/L ). Everything is available in my GitHub repositories . The direct link to the py...

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UK Unemployment 1860-1915 (dynamic equilibrium model)
In addition to challenging the dynamic equilibrium model with a longer time series of US data  [1], John Handley also challenged it with the long time series UK data ( available here from FRED ). I focused on the pre-WWI data because I already looked at the...

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Dynamic equilibrium model: CPI (all items)
With the new CPI data out last week, I updated the dynamic equilibrium model for all items I looked in this post : The former uses 90% confidence intervals, while the latter graph uses MAD as the measure of model uncertainty since the derivative of CPI (all...

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Presentation: macroeconomics and ensembles
I put together a new presentation that looks at macroeconomics, partially inspired by this blog post . It can be downloaded in pdf format from this link . The rest of the slides are below the fold.

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Unemployment 1929-1968 (dynamic equilibrium model)
John Handley challenged me to take on the 1930s, 40s, and 50s with the dynamic equilibrium model . While the Great Depression is fairly uncertain (because the model operates on the log of the unemployment rate, returning to the linear scale makes the bands ...

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Keynes versus Samuelson
I read through Roger Farmer's book excerpt up at Evonomics (and have subsequently bought the book). I tweeted a bit about it, but I think one point I was trying to make is better made with a blog post. Farmer's juxtaposition of Samuelson's neoclassical synt...

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JOLTS leading indicators?
In what is becoming a mini-series on the utility of the forecasts made using the information equilibrium/ dynamic equilibrium framework ( previous installment here ), I wanted to assess whether the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey (JOLTS) data could b...

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Does information equilibrium add information?
I've been asked several times about the utility of the forecasts I make with the information equilibrium (IE) model. I came up with a good way to quantify it for the US 10 year interest rate forecast I made nearly 2 years ago . Here I've compared the IE mod...

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The labor demand curve
John Cochrane may have written the most concise argument that economic theory should be rejected: Economic theory also forces logical consistency that would not otherwise be obvious. You can't argue that the labor demand curve is vertical today, for the min...
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