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Jason Smith
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I am a physicist who messes around with economic theory.
I am a physicist who messes around with economic theory.

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The last employment situation report of 2018
Next month, this dynamic information equilibrium model (DIEM) forecast will be 2 years old [1]. It's been pretty much spot on (shown alongside some of the forecasts published by the FRBSF's FedViews ): It's biased a little high with today's 3.7% number, but...
The last employment situation report of 2018
The last employment situation report of 2018
informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com

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Ambiguous histories: productivity
Productivity came up on Twitter yesterday , and I put together a quick dynamic information equilibrium model  (DIEM) of the utilization-adjusted Total Factor Productivity (TFP)  data curated by John Fernald at the FRBSF . First, let me note that I generally...
Ambiguous histories: productivity
Ambiguous histories: productivity
informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com

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Third quarter GDP numbers
No lunch break today, so I'm late with these updates. The Q3 GDP numbers and related metrics are out. No surprises, but here are the various forecasts and head-to-heads I'm tracking. First, here's RGDP growth and inflation from the FRBNY DSGE model and the ...
Third quarter GDP numbers
Third quarter GDP numbers
informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com

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<i>A Workers' History</i> update
I'm at about 11,000 words (about 1/3 of my goal — about the same length as A Random Physicist Takes on Economics ). At this rate, I'll probably be done much sooner than the end of 2019. I've finally collected all of the data I think I need and analyzed it w...
A Workers' History update
A Workers' History update
arandomphysicist.com

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Construction hiring, the Great Recession, and the ARRA
In the previous post , I talked about a drop in construction hiring  (a JOLTS subcategory) as a leading factor in the Great Recession. Compared to the rest of the macroeconomic observables, construction hires is first to fall. Here's the model for the full ...
Construction hiring, the Great Recession, and the ARRA
Construction hiring, the Great Recession, and the ARRA
informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com

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An information equilibrium history of the Great Recession
I mentioned at the beginning of this year on my book website that I was thinking about writing another book about the macro history of the US as told through dynamic information equilibrium and the resulting economic seismographs . I've been collecting the ...
An information equilibrium history of the Great Recession
An information equilibrium history of the Great Recession
informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com

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Unemployment: forecasts and reality
The unemployment rate came in unchanged for October at 3.7%, which is still like 0.1 percentage points below the forecast — but it's a forecast from January 2017, so not bad for almost two years. It looks even better compared to the competition. The FOMC an...
Unemployment: forecasts and reality
Unemployment: forecasts and reality
informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com

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"Outside the Box" Workshop
Yesterday, I participated in the "Outside the Box" Workshop at the University of Washington Economics department organized by Fabio Ghironi [meeting agenda below]. I had a great time, and there was a lot of enthusiastic engagement from the audience througho...
"Outside the Box" Workshop
"Outside the Box" Workshop
informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com

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Unemployment rate holds steady at 3.9%
The unemployment rate holds steady at 3.9% which is consistent with the dynamic information equilibrium forecast from January of 2017: There was also average hourly wages data released that shows something intriguing — if speculative. Average hourly wage gr...
Unemployment rate holds steady at 3.9%
Unemployment rate holds steady at 3.9%
informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com

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Labor day! ... and declining union membership
Not everyone has today off, but I do — probably at least in part due to the fact that I'm among the declining fraction of the US population represented by a private sector union ( this one ). Inspired by John Handley's tweet  proposing a possible mechanism ...
Labor day! ... and declining union membership
Labor day! ... and declining union membership
informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com
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