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Eagle's Orbit: Aurora Alert
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Aurora alerts for your Android phone. Simple and reliable.
Aurora alerts for your Android phone. Simple and reliable.

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Eagle's Orbit: Aurora Alert's posts

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NOAA forecasts a small chance for minor geomagnetic storms late July 26 and July 27, as Earth moves into a high-speed stream of solar wind. Chances for M-flares remain at 10%, with only two minor C-class flares in the past few days. #aurora
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The sun is fairly quiet for now despite the increasing number of sunspots. Only a 10% chance for M-flares for the next few days, and basically no significant flares for the past 48 hours. In this quiet I'm focusing my energy on the next few releases of Aurora Alert. Feedback and suggestions are always welcome.

NOAA predicts a 15% chance for M-class flares for the next few days. AR1793 is almost directly facing Earth now (and is most likely to flare), so any eruptions would be Earth directed. A few smaller sunspots are starting to pop up, including AR1800, which hurled a CME away from Earth just yesterday.

NOAA predicts a 40% chance of minor geomagnetic storms centered around July 19 due to the incoming CME. Mid to high latitude viewers should be on watch for #aurora. Meanwhile AR1791 is slowly withering away, while AR1793 (which has a Beta-Gamma magnetic field) is turning to face Earth more directly.

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The Sun launched a CME almost directly towards Earth yesterday. Models show expected impact to be late July 18/early July 19.
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Chances for M-class flares remain at 25% over the next few days with AR1791 Beta-Delta, and AR1793 Beta-Gamma (magnetic fields). It's not much, but it's something.

New sunspot group AR1793 has a Beta-Gamma magnetic field, increasing the chances for M-class solar flares to 25% over the next few days.

The expected incoming CME has likely already passed over us, or is still in the process of doing so. Earth is currently on the cusp of a minor geomagnetic storm with the Kp-index remaining at 4.

NOAA forecasts a minor geomagnetic storm for July 13. This could mean #aurora  at high latitude, and even coming over the Canadian border into the U.S., Northern Europe, or Australia.

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Another CME is approaching Earth for a direct hit, this time more slowly. NOAA models show impact occurring on July 13.
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