I wrote up some thoughts about some of the affect I see Google+ having on some other services. I was originally commenting on a posted question by +Stephen Johnson
with this but I noticed how long it got. Let me know what you guys think.
In my personal opinion, Facebook will be heavily affected. I already know a lot of people who have switched over completely. +Mike Elgan
wrote a pretty good article on Datamation that shows ways that you can use Google+ to communicate with Facebook without actually logging in to Facebook. This involved the use of targeting emails to either post on Facebook or be notified of interesting things that happen, as well as just sending emails with Google+ posts in them.
This would cause more traffic to come to Google+ just to see the posts that are made here. Eventually enough people would become aware of it and shift over. There will always be resistance, of course. But eventually enough traffic will have moved over that Facebook will become a ghost town. We can tell that wasn't really the original attempt, because some of the suggestions in the article involve using third party services. I feel that after a while though Facebook will take a significant hit.
I can't really say anything about Twitter, but I know celebrities are already enjoying posting to their fans here. So we may see an increase in celebrity activity toward Google+ in the future for communication, which would shift a lot of activity away from twitter as well. The celebrity involvement isn't even in a certain category either, we have actors like +Felicia Day
and +Wil Wheaton
as well as current CEO's like +Richard Branson
and retired ones like +Tom Anderson
coming over and talking about how much they enjoy using the service. +*****
, +Christina Trapolino
and some others are regularly posting tips and discussions about Google+ features and benefits.
Personally, I don't think that Google was targeting Facebook with this app. I think their intentions were more driven toward seamless integration of all of their products. They are doing that extremely well considering the number of offerings they have. The level of service that is being offered will definitely hit Facebook and Twitter, but it may also cause some concern to other large companies that have been migrating into cloud based or similar offerings. Apple might see a hit to the iPhone and iPad usage if a Google+ app isn't approved, as well as their Mac stores and iTunes. We've already seen what can be done with Chrome extensions, so that could cause more migration to Chrome instead of Safari and we haven't even seen what the APIs will do yet.
The same thing can be said about Microsoft. I think it was early last year that Steve Ballmer said that they were putting all of their chips into cloud computing. I haven't really heard much about any attempts from them to make a serious shift. WP7 will be threatened because it doesn't integrate with Google's cloud based services. Windows in general will be threatened as more people become aware of Chromebooks that can access this, as well as all of the other features Google is offering, without having to worry about viruses.
Google+ also has a lot of business application, and brands are sweating bullets waiting for access to their services. They want to be the first to take advantage of whatever it is Google will be offering. So there is a lot of push to move this direction for businesses as well.
The last point that I can think about at the moment is that it took Google 2 weeks to hit 10 million users. It took Facebook a year to hit half of that. Now I know that Facebook was more exclusive in the beginning, limiting itself to college students, but the benchmark that Facebook had 4 months after it opened to the public was still only at 12 million.
I saw reports early this week that Google+ was expecting to double in size by the end of the week. I don't think we will see that kind of growth for certain, since +Larry Page
officially announced 10 million users today and the week only has a couple of days left, I wouldn't be surprised to see 100 million by the end of the year if Google leaves registration the way it is though. The major benefit of the current registration system though, is that since we have to invite people, we will first inform people about it ourselves, then we will explain it to them, and then we send the invite. It's word of mouth in it's ultimate form.
Sorry, I think I may be all over the place here, but these are my thoughts on the potential effect that Google+ could have on today's market, and I'm not even positive that this was the intent behind the product to begin with.