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There was a report I saw yesterday that was touting how Cayetano won just about all of the precincts in Honolulu. But I think it totally misses the point. Cayetano did not get 50%+1 of the votes, he got 44.74%. And considering Caldwell and Carlisle were both pro-rail, it wouldn't be too far of a stretch to say Caldwell will get the majority of the votes that Carlisle received.

Now to the mapping because I've at least got the base code working well.

What you'll see on this link is what I'm defining as the "Cayetano advantage map" and it shows the comparison of Cayetano vs. all other candidates with a cushion of +/-200 votes. Those precincts within the +/-200 would be areas that I'd consider still in play as they could swing either way.

When looking at the map this way, Cayetano is strong (yellow = over +200) in four precincts (of 142 with physical polls) and it looks like what I'd expect, with two Kalihi schools (where Cayetano is from), Kahala El and Kailua El.

Fern Elem School
Kahala Elem School
Kalihi Uka Elem School
Kailua Elem School

Now the precincts on the other end of the spectrum (purple) are also what I'd expect. I just listed the ones over -600 for Cayetano and they go right through the areas directly affected by rail. The list is in order by most for other candidates with Calvary Chapel of Honolulu having a whopping -1,062!

Calvary Chapel of Honolulu
Pearl City Highlands Elem School
Mililani Middle School
Kapolei High School
Mililani Mauka Elem School
Waimalu Elem School
Ilima Inter School
Kanoelani Elem School
Kaleiopuu Elem School
Manana Elem School
Mililani Uka Elem School
Aiea High School

However, look at all the green markers. Those are the ones within the +/-200 votes range and will probably be where this election is decided.
Map Legend yellow Cayetano advantage >= 200 votes purple Other Candidates >= 200 votes green +-200 Votes (contested precinct)
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Bobby Lambrix's profile photoEd White's profile photo
 
Awesome work, Jared.

I finally saw Moneyball on primary night while awaiting results and immediately started thinking about the metrics that would determine a candidates chances. Seeing this map is like looking at the spread of where a batter hits the most pitches.

Like you said, if Caldwell is to pick up Carlisle's votes, this race may be much closer than reports are perhaps framing it to be.
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