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Bryan Breguet
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New Insight West poll confirms it's a dead heat race (+updated estimates)
Note: my exit poll is collecting repsonses right now. If you want regular updates, follow me on Twitter at @2closetocall This morning Insight West decided to publish a new poll for the referendum on electoral reform. And it confirmed what I've been saying a...
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December 6th: updated estimates for the referendum on electoral reform
First of all, a giant thanks to those of you who decided to contribute to the Go Fund Me campaign I started yesterday to get a post-referendum poll. This is amazing. I'll start the poll tomorrow and will keep you updated. Ok, let's use the most up-to-date t...
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Who can't wait for the results and would like a poll?
The voting period for the referendum on electoral reform is coming to an end this Friday at 4:30pm. We won't know the results for weeks. In 2011 for the HST referendum, Elections BC took almost 3 weeks to count all the ballots and publish the results. Are y...
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Updates to the referendum estimates, December 3rd
Alright, let's use the newly published turnout numbers from this morning to estimate the YES and NO side again. with different methods. All methods use some form of polling averages (by age, region, etc). Remember, those are estimates. You could call them e...
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So, who is leading in the referendum on electoral reform?
Alright, it's almost over! One week exactly and Elections BC will stop accepting ballots and will start counting them. Turnout is now at 37% (received ballots; it's 31.1% of processed ballots). So the good news is that the final turnout will be decent. More...
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Map for the current turnout for the referendum on electoral reform
Simple, interactive map of the turnout (processed ballots) as of November 30th 2018. Four categories, two below the average and two above. That is all. Hope you enjoy.
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**
Interesting new turnout data published by Elections BC yesterday. Let's take a look. Summary for busy people Using all the information available so far (polls, turnout by riding, data about the turnout by age in 2017), here is my best estimate of the curren...
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Is the proportional representation side actually currently ahead?
The other day I was reporting that , based on the turnout data by riding provided daily by Elections BC , there were reasons to believe the NO side (i.e: keeping the current FPTP) was ahead. That was mostly because turnout data was indicating that older (55...
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What can we learn from the early turnout in the BC referendum on electoral reform?
This morning, as they do every day, Elections BC reported on how many ballots had been received and screened by them. The screening part is is important as Elections BC started reporting last week on how many ballots it has received in total. If the current...
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A look at the early turnout for the BC referendum on electoral reform
The referendum on electoral reform is happening right now in BC. According to Elections BC, as of yesterday's morning, 6.5% of the registered voters have sent their ballots back (or, more exactly, Elections BC had received these ballots). With every single ...
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